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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...SIGNIFICANT ICING POSSIBLE ACROSS OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Mainly south of I-44.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Mainly south of I-44.
ONSET...Ongoing.

WINTER WEATHER.
ICE ACCUMULATION.
RISK...Limited.
AREA... Mainly north and west of Tulsa.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Areas of rain with embedded thunderstorms continue to spread
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon.
While the thunderstorm potential will be coming to an end
later this afternoon, precipitation chances will persist
through tonight.

With temperatures at or below freezing across Osage,Pawnee
and Washington Counties in northeast Oklahoma, Freezing rain
is occurring. The freezing line will continue to spread to
east and southeast through tonight and is generally expected to
be near a Jay to Okfuskee line in northeast Oklahoma by
sunrise Tuesday. Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle
will be possible across a good portion of northeast Oklahoma
as we move through the night. The most significant ice accumulations
will be across Osage and Pawnee Counties where temperatures have
been at or below freezing for some time. This area will see upwards
of one-quarter to four-tenths of an inch of ice through the day
Tuesday. Other locations that see freezing rain or drizzle may
see ice accumulations of up to two-tenths of an inch through Tuesday.
Driving conditions will likely worsen through the night with
mainly bridges and overpasses becoming slick.

Rainfall amounts are expected to be in the 1 to 2 inch range
south of Interstate 44 through tonight with locally higher
amounts possible. This could lead to flooding of low lying
areas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Winter Weather Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY THOUGH SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure system will remain across the
southwest the next few days, and will result in additional rounds
of rain showers across the region through mid week. The colder
airmass with subfreezing temperatures will remain across parts of
the area, which will allow for the potential for periodic light
wintry weather Tuesday and Tuesday night. At this time, the
greatest potential for wintry weather looks to be northwest of
Interstate 44. Some uncertainty remains with how far south and
east the cold air gets which will impact precipitation amounts
and locations. Stay tuned as forecasts will continue to be
updated.

Temperatures are expected to modify sufficiently by Wednesday to
support all liquid precipitation. Rain chances along with isolated
thunderstorms will continue Wednesday and Wednesday night as the
upper low approaches the plains. As the low moves off to the east
Thursday, precipitation chances will finally taper off. Settled
conditions will ensue and continue into the weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$



Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
324 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-262200-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-
Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-
Cherokee-Adair-Muskogee-McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-
Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville,
Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren,
Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith, Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Pawhuska,
Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore,
Pryor, Grove, Jay, Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Tahlequah,
Stilwell, Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler,
Wilburton, and Poteau
324 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.NOW...
At 3:20 PM...Doppler radars detected widespread rain and embedded
thunderstorms across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. The bulk of the precipitation was mainly south of a line
from Pawnee to Miami and north of a line from McAlester to Fort
smith. A mix of freezing rain and sleet was also detected across
much of Pawnee and Osage counties as well as portions of
Washington and Nowata counties in northeast Oklahoma. The freezing
line was located along a line from near Oilton to Lenapah in
northeast Oklahoma.

Through 5:00 PM...Mixed wintry precipitation will continue for
locations across northeast Oklahoma, primarily along and north of
the Oilton to Lenapah line. South of this line, light to
occasional moderate rain will be common, with isolated, embedded
thunderstorms possible across the rest of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Small hail and locally heavy rainfall could
also be possible with the stronger storms that occur.

$$




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