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Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
503 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 /403 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018/


A tropical disturbance across the Northwest Caribbean is expected
to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday and approach the
Northern Gulf Coast late this weekend. Regardless of whether this
system develops into a tropical system, heavy rainfall is expected
to overspread the region this weekend.

Over the last couple of weeks, rainfall has been well above
normal, and while this has ended drought conditions across the
region, the excessive rainfall has resulted in rivers rising above
base levels and soils becoming more saturated. As a result, the
potential for flash flooding has increased as has the threat of
river flooding.

Through Saturday, typical afternoon summertime thunderstorms are
expected, which may produce brief heavy rainfall in some
locations. However, by Sunday as the tropical disturbance
approaches the region, the potential for widespread heavy rainfall
will increase.

At this time, widespread rainfall totals of 5 to 7 inches are
expected across the region with isolated heavier totals possible
through Tuesday. This rain will be capable of causing flash
flooding, especially if occurring over a short period of time.
Additionally, the greatest potential for river flooding in this
event is across river basins already running above normal, which
include the Flint River, Chattahoochee River, Apalachicola River,
Choctawhatchee River, and Pea River.

The latest rainfall forecasts suggest that minor flooding is
possible on these rivers as early as Monday. Should heavier
rainfall amounts occur, more significant river flooding would be

A flood watch may be issued for portions of the area later this

Stay alert through the weekend for any watches or warnings for
this heavy rainfall event. For an assessment of current and future
hydrologic information in the Tallahassee area of responsibility,
visit our website at and click on the
rivers and lakes link.



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