One product issued by NWS for: Manasota Key FL
Hydrologic Outlook
Hydrologic Outlook FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165- 239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-260230- Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL 1028 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 ...SUMMER FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... There is an above normal risk for flooding across west central and southwest Florida over the next several months, especially along rivers and streams across the region. Although rather typical dry season drought conditions developed and persisted through the late winter and early spring, generally above normal rainfall (and in many areas much above normal rainfall) during the month of May has all but eliminated drought conditions across the area with the exception of portions of Highlands county. The recent rainfall has allowed rivers and streams to significantly recover from relatively low levels and are now running generally in the near to above normal ranges. Since May 1, heavy rainfall of 5 to 9 inches has occurred across the central nature coast. Although well below flood stage, mid portions of the Withlacoochee river have been setting daily record high stages the past several days. However, the headwaters continue to run below climatological normals which is more indicative of the state of the river as a whole, as the river is fed by the Green Swamp which is far from being saturated. The Climate Prediction Center three month outlook for the months of June, July, and August indicates that above normal rainfall is likely across the northern nature coast...is leaning above normal across west central Florida...and that there is an equal chance for above or below normal rainfall over southwest Florida. As is always the case, a single tropical event can produce significant widespread heavy rainfall and flooding. The National Hurricane Center is expecting above normal hurricane activity for the 2022 hurricane season, indicating that there will be more activity to closely monitor throughout the summer months. Due to the relatively wet antecedent conditions and potential for above normal rainfall over the next several months, the potential for flooding across west central and southwest Florida during the summer rainy season is above normal. $$