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Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
1028 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022


There is an above normal risk for flooding across west central
and southwest Florida over the next several months, especially
along rivers and streams across the region.

Although rather typical dry season drought conditions developed
and persisted through the late winter and early spring, generally
above normal rainfall (and in many areas much above normal
rainfall) during the month of May has all but eliminated drought
conditions across the area with the exception of portions of
Highlands county.

The recent rainfall has allowed rivers and streams to
significantly recover from relatively low levels and are now
running generally in the near to above normal ranges. Since May 1,
heavy rainfall of 5 to 9 inches has occurred across the central
nature coast.  Although well below flood stage, mid portions of
the Withlacoochee river have been setting daily record high stages
the past several days. However, the headwaters continue to run
below climatological normals which is more indicative of the
state of the river as a whole, as the river is fed by the Green
Swamp which is far from being saturated.

The Climate Prediction Center three month outlook for the months
of June, July, and August indicates that above normal rainfall is
likely across the northern nature leaning above normal
across west central Florida...and that there is an equal chance
for above or below normal rainfall over southwest Florida.

As is always the case, a single tropical event can produce
significant widespread heavy rainfall and flooding. The National
Hurricane Center is expecting above normal hurricane activity for
the 2022 hurricane season, indicating that there will be more
activity to closely monitor throughout the summer months.

Due to the relatively wet antecedent conditions and potential for
above normal rainfall over the next several months, the potential
for flooding across west central and southwest Florida during the
summer rainy season is above normal.


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