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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-041000-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in
central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of
Columbia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers are expected with scattered thunderstorms today through
tonight with locally damaging wind gusts being the primary
threat. The most widespread activity is this afternoon and evening.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire outlook area
tonight as Tropical Storm Isaias approaches the area. Consult the
Hurricane Local Statement for more details.

A Coastal Flood Watch and Flash Flood Watch are also in effect.
Consult the Coastal Flood and Flash Flood messages for more
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire outlook area
Tuesday as Tropical Storm Isaias moves over the area.

A Flash Flood Watch and Coastal Flood Watch are also in effect
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Refer to the Flash Flood and Coastal
Flood messages for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report any instances of flooding or wind damage to the
National Weather Service.

$$



Hurricane Local Statement

Hurricane Isaias Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ027>031-036>040-050>057-501-502-505>508-WVZ051>053-040830-

Hurricane Isaias Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC  AL092020
828 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

This product covers Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, Northern and Northwestern
Virginia, and District of Columbia

**STRONG WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL LIKELY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Anne Arundel,
      Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Calvert, Carroll, Central
      and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery,
      Charles, District of Columbia, Fairfax, King George, Northern
      Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest
      Montgomery, Prince Georges, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas
      Park, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore, Spotsylvania, St.
      Marys, and Stafford

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 440 miles south-southwest of Washington DC or about 470
      miles south-southwest of Baltimore MD
    - 32.8N 79.0W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 16 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Isaias will approach from the Carolinas tonight and move
across the Chesapeake Bay region Tuesday morning. The center of the
storm will rapidly exit to the northeast Tuesday afternoon.

Significant flash flooding of small streams and creeks is likely
tonight into Tuesday evening as rainfall associated with Isaias
spreads northward. Widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are
expected with locally higher amounts possible. The highest amounts are
expected east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, and particularly over the
I-95 corridor late tonight through Tuesday.

Tropical storm force winds are expected along and east of the
I-95 Corridor and north central Maryland. Tree damage and power
outages are possible in this area. The strongest winds are expected
across southern Maryland, where tree damage and power outages are more
likely. Moderate coastal flooding is also likely along the western
shores of the Chesapeake Bay and at Washington DC Southwest Waterfront
on Tuesday. Minor coastal flooding is likely along other tidal waters.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts near and east of I-95 corridor. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
      ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,
      destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while
      increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood
      control systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to
significant impacts across other locations near and east of the Blue
Ridge Mountains.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across southern Maryland. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
elsewhere near and east of the Interstate 95 corridor.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across along the Tidal Potomac River and along the western shore of
the Chesapeake Bay. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across southern Maryland. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland,
Northern and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia, little
to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Baltimore MD/Washington DC around 1130 PM EDT, or sooner
if conditions warrant.

$$



Tropical Storm Warning

Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC  AL092020
808 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

MDZ011-040815-
/O.CON.KLWX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Southern Baltimore-
808 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Baltimore
    - Dundalk
    - Catonsville

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
      to 73 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
          storm force.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
          should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
          significant wind damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
          damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
          buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
          failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
          Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
        - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
          numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
          fences and roadway signs blown over.
        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
          urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
          and access routes impassable.
        - Scattered power and communications outages, but more
          prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet
          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
        - Window of concern: through Wednesday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
      surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
        - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot
          above ground.
        - PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding,
          especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions
          become unsafe.
        - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
          your area.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
          immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
          farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
        - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become
          overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous
          in places where surge water covers the road.
        - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes,
          mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
        - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks,
          boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from
          moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
          likely.
        - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
          if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos,
          and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,
          destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while
          increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides.
          Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
          weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
          with gusty winds may still occur.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
          tornado situation.
        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - http://ready.gov/hurricanes

$$



Coastal Flood Warning

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
734 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

MDZ011-040745-
/O.EXT.KLWX.CF.W.0005.200804T1500Z-200805T0700Z/
Southern Baltimore-
734 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM
EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level
  expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding.

* WHERE...Shoreline in Southern Baltimore County and the city of
  Baltimore.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Tuesday to 3 AM EDT Wednesday, especially
  around the time of high tide.

* IMPACTS...At 4.25 feet, the concrete promenade at Fells Point
  begins to flood. Water also begins to cover the boardwalk at
  the Maritime Park water taxi stop. Thames Street is flooded,
  and much of the promenade in the Inner Harbor is flooded. At
  3.8 feet, water covers yards and approaches homes in the
  Bowleys Quarters area.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Tides up to 3 feet above normal. High tide
  Tuesday evening at Fort McHenry Baltimore is at 8:12 PM. High
  tide Tuesday evening at Bowley Bar is at 9:23 PM. Due to storm
  surge, the actual highest tide levels may occur at different
  times than the usual high tide.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If
travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through
water of unknown depth.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Chesapeake Bay at Bowleys Quarters
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.0 ft, Moderate 3.8 ft, Major 5.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.3 ft, Moderate 2.1 ft, Major 3.3 ft

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/08 PM     1.6       -0.1        0.5        1       None
 04/10 AM     2.4        0.7        0.6       1-2      None
 04/08 PM     4.2        2.5        3.1        1     Moderate
 05/09 AM     2.6        0.9        0.8        0       None
 05/09 PM     1.6       -0.1        0.4        0       None
 06/10 AM     2.1        0.4        0.4        0       None

NW Branch Patapsco River at Baltimore MD
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.0 ft, Moderate 5.0 ft, Major 6.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.3 ft, Moderate 3.3 ft, Major 4.3 ft

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/07 PM     1.8        0.1        0.5       0-1      None
 04/07 AM     2.1        0.4        0.2       0-1      None
 04/08 PM     4.2        2.5        2.8        1      Minor
 05/08 AM     2.5        0.8        0.6        0       None
 05/08 PM     1.8        0.1        0.4        0       None
 06/09 AM     2.3        0.6        0.5        0       None

&&

$$



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
148 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ028-030-031-
052>055-057-501-502-505-506-WVZ050>053-040200-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.A.0017.200804T0300Z-200805T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-
Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick,
Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown,
Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton,
College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie,
Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton,
St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California,
Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby,
Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville,
Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City,
Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Winchester, Front Royal, Berryville,
Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston,
Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia,
Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Dahlgren,
Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling,
Romney, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown
148 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Maryland, The District of Columbia, Virginia, and
  West Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland,
  Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard,
  Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick, Northern
  Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest
  Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern
  Baltimore, St. Marys, and Washington. The District of
  Columbia. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria,
  Clarke, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick, King George,
  Northern Fauquier, Prince William, Southern Fauquier,
  Stafford, Warren, and Western Loudoun. In West Virginia,
  Berkeley, Hampshire, Jefferson, and Morgan.

* From 11 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday evening

* Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to
  start spreading northward late tonight and continue into
  Tuesday evening. Widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are
  expected with localized higher amounts possible.

* This amount of rain is likely to result in significant flash
  flooding of small streams and creeks Monday night into Tuesday
  evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$




U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
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