One product issued by NWS for: 3 Miles ESE Bellaire MI
Hydrologic Outlook
Hydrologic Outlook
MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-202100-
Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
458 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025
...Final Spring 2025 Flood Outlook for Northern Michigan...
The final Spring 2025 Flood Outlook for Northern Michigan
indicates a near average probability of flooding due to snow melt
within major eastern Upper and northern Lower Michigan river
basins. This represents a decrease in probabilities due to snow
melt during the first half of March
This outlook covers Chippewa and Mackinac counties in eastern Upper
Michigan which includes the Pine River Basin...and the northern half
of Lower Michigan encompassing Au Sable...Boardman...Manistee...
Rifle...and Tobacco River basins.
The first table below lists the probabilities of reaching flood stage
(minor flooding)...as well as moderate and major flood levels for the
six forecast points within the Gaylord National Weather Service office
Hydrologic Service Area. Current (CS) and historical (HS) probabilities
of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed
for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of
reaching a flood category based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based
on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is greater than HS: the probability of exceeding
that level is higher than normal.
When the value of CS is less than HS: the probability of exceeding
that level is lower than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Manistee River
Sherman 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 16 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Boardman River
Mayfield--Brown B 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Au Sable River
Red Oak 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Rifle River
Sterling 6.0 11.0 13.0 : 33 64 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Pine River
Rudyard 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Tobacco River
Beaverton 12.0 14.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
Departure from normal of reaching flood stage is the difference between
the current projected chance for reaching flood stage (CS) and the
climatological normal (HS). For example...the Manistee River near
Sherman...with a Flood Stage of 15 feet...has a 16 percent chance
of reaching or exceeding flood stage. This is 4 percentage points
above normal. During the 90 day period listed...the typical probability
of the Manistee River near Sherman reaching flood stage is 12 percent.
The next table shows the chance that a particular river location could
rise above the listed stages in the specified 90 day period (high flow
forecast):
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Manistee River
Sherman 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.9
:Boardman River
Mayfield--Brown B 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.4
:Au Sable River
Red Oak 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 7.0
:Rifle River
Sterling 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.2 6.4 7.5 8.5
:Pine River
Rudyard 7.9 8.0 8.6 10.2 11.8 13.5 14.3
:Tobacco River
Beaverton 4.2 4.8 5.7 6.2 6.9 7.8 8.7
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Manistee River
Sherman 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8
:Boardman River
Mayfield--Brown B 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Au Sable River
Red Oak 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8
:Rifle River
Sterling 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
:Pine River
Rudyard 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Tobacco River
Beaverton 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Spring flood outlooks are routinely issued in February and March in
order to give advance notice of possible flooding. The long range
probabilistic outlooks given in the above tables contain forecast
values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30
or more years of climatological data...and incorporated current
river levels...soil moisture conditions...snow water equivalent
values...as well as 30 and 90 day outlooks for temperature and
precipitation provided by the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center.
Actual river crests will differ from this outlook if future
conditions differ significantly from forecast conditions...or if
ice jams develop.
...Current Conditions...
Recent rain and snow melt have reduced the likelihood going forward
of additional flooding due to melting snow...especially across
northern Lower Michigan.
Precipitation through the Summer months (June-August) was
generally from 75 to 125 percent of normal. Across eastern Upper
Michigan June was the wettest month of the summer with
precipitation 150 to 200+ percent of normal...things started to
dry out in July with below normal rainfall though most areas
received at least 50 percent of normal precipitation. A similar
trend was noted in August. Precipitation during the Fall months
(September-November) started out below normal for September (less
than 50 percent of normal with some areas less than 25 percent of
normal) and October (25 to 75 percent of normal). But November
precipitation was above normal in most locations...more than 200
percent of normal across northern Chippewa county and in the
higher terrain of eastern Antrim/western Otsego/northwest Kalkaska
counties mainly due to a significant lake effect snow event
during Thanksgiving weekend.
Precipitation for the Winter (December through February) featured
quite a bit of snowfall for the lake effect snowbelts. The
Gaylord NWS office set a new record snowfall for the winter of
149.5 inches. Sault Ste. Marie recorded its second snowiest winter
on record (138.9 inches)...Houghton Lake its third snowiest
winter (72.2 inches) and Traverse City tied its fourth snowiest
winter (125.1 inches). From a liquid equivalent precipitation
standpoint...Sault Ste. Marie recorded its 7th wettest winter on
record (9.94 inches/3.42 inches above normal).
Snow water equivalent in the snow pack across eastern Upper Michigan
is generally 3 to 4 inches across Mackinac and southeast Chippewa
county...and from 6 to 9 inches across the remainder of Chippewa
county. Across northern Lower snow water equivalent is less than 2
inches in areas that still have snow cover...and 1 to 3 inches
across areas of northwest Lower that still have snow cover.
Soil moisture is near normal across all of northern Michigan.
Streamflows on northern Michigan rivers are near normal thanks to
recent rain-on-snowmelt.
D2 (Severe) Drought conditions continue across parts of Leelanau...
Alpena...Benzie...Oscoda...Alcona...Manistee...Ogemaw...Iosco...
Gladwin...and Arenac counties.
Moderate (D1) Drought conditions also continue across parts of
Presque Isle...Montmorency...Grand Traverse...Kalkaska...Crawford...
Wexford...Missaukee...and Roscommon counties.
...Weather Outlook...
The 6 to 10 day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center
valid for the period of March 18-9 2025 is indicating a high
likelihood for above normal temperatures...and leaning toward
above normal precipitation.
The outlook for the Spring (March through May) indicates no
discernible trend with regard to temperatures (equal probabilities
for above...normal...and below normal temperatures)...and a 40 to 50
percent chance of above normal precipitation.
...Additional Information...
This is the final Spring Flood Outlook for 2025. Long range
probabilistic outlooks such as those given in the above tables are
issues during the last week of each month throughout the year.
Visit water.noaa.gov/wfo/apx for more river information...including
graphs of the probabilistic information given in the above tables...
the latest observed conditions on northern Michigan streams...as
well as analyses of precipitation and snowfall.
$$
JPB