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Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook
MNZ010>012-018-019-301500-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
407 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE RAINY RIVER BASIN...

An active weather pattern is expected this weekend into early next
week across northeast Minnesota, including the Rainy River Basin.
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected Saturday through
potentially Tuesday. Basin average amounts of one to three inches
are forecast. Higher rainfall amounts will occur where
thunderstorms track multiple times over several days. However,
predictability is low this far out of where the thunderstorms will
track over multiple days over localized areas.

This active weather pattern will cause additional inflows into
and rises on already historically high Lake Kabetogama, Namakan
Lake and Rainy Lake, and increased flows on tributaries across
the Rainy River Basin. Furthermore, gusty and erratic winds from
thunderstorms can result in increased wave action against flood
protection measures.

For more information see www.weather.gov/duluth. A Rainy River
Basin briefing page is available as a headline at the top of the
webpage.

$$

PA



Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
327 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

MNC071-075-137-012100-
/O.CON.KDLH.FA.W.0012.000000T0000Z-220601T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Koochiching MN-Lake MN-St. Louis MN-
327 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is occurring. Namakan
  Lake has already surpassed the level reached in the 2014 flood and
  is continuing to rise. Rainy Lake rose above the 2014 level May
  23rd.

* WHERE...Rivers and lakes within the Rainy River Basin including
  Crane Lake, Namakan Lake, Kabetogama Lake and Rainy Lake.

* WHEN...Flooding is occurring now and is expected to continue.

* IMPACTS...Strong lake level rises are ongoing.  Flooding continues
  and lake levels have yet to crest. Expect high water continuing
  for the next several weeks.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 303 PM CDT, Emergency management reported ongoing
    flooding.
  - Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected this weekend
    into next week. Basin average rainfall amounts of one to
    three inches are forecast. Locally higher amounts are
    possible, but remain uncertain and will depend on where
    thunderstorms track over multiple days.

    Lake levels on Namakan Lake and Kabetogama Lake are expected
    to rise an additional 2 to 5 inches between May 27 and June
    3. There is uncertainty due to the precipitation forecast.
    Lake Levels on Namakan and Kabetogama may level off over the
    next week if precipitation amounts are on the low-end of the
    forecast. However, if precipitation amounts are on the high
    end, Namakan Lake could continue to rise through next week
    and approach the record level set in 1916 of 1122.8 ft

    For Rainy Lake, a rise of 11 to 13 inches is expected between
    May 27 and June 3, with continued rises through at least mid
    June. At this rate, Rainy Lake is expected to break the all-
    time record high level of 1112.95 ft set in 1950 sometime
    next week.

    Some locations that will experience flooding include Rainer,
    Island View, Voyageurs National Park, Crane Lake and
    Kabetogama Lake.

    Http://www.weather.gov/dlh/RainyRiverBasin


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extreme caution if venturing our on these water bodies as many
hazards exist.

In addition to rising levels, any thunderstorms that produce strong
winds could cause larger waves on these lakes, which could further
cause damage on the shoreline.

Once levels have peaked, it will take a long time (weeks) for levels
to decline back to anything close to normal summer levels.

&&

LAT...LON 4836 9344 4859 9347 4863 9332 4863 9295
      4854 9263 4849 9270 4847 9271 4846 9271
      4842 9247 4822 9237 4825 9227 4835 9226
      4836 9206 4823 9196 4820 9172 4811 9171
      4810 9156 4804 9157 4805 9144 4786 9153


$$

PA



Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
318 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-282030-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
318 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

High water levels continue in the Rainy River Basin over far
northern Minnesota, with minor flooding along the Mississippi
River near Aitkin. Flood Warnings remain in effect for these
areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Water levels will remain high across many of the Northland`s
rivers, creeks, and streams, especially in the Rainy River Basin
and the Mississippi River Basin.

There will be periodic chances for thunderstorms this weekend
into next week. Strong to severe storms may be possible Saturday
afternoon, Sunday evening into Sunday night, and on Monday.
Damaging winds, hail, and frequent lightning will all be possible
hazards. Heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon or
tonight.

$$



Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook
MNC031-061-071-075-137-301500-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
211 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE RAINY RIVER BASIN...

An active weather pattern is expected this weekend into early next
week across northeast Minnesota, including the Rainy River Basin.
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected Saturday through
potentially Tuesday. Basin average amounts of one to two inches
are forecast. Higher rainfall amounts will occur where thunderstorms
track multiple times over several days. However, predictability is
low this far out of where the thunderstorms will track over
multiple days over localized areas.

This active weather pattern will cause additional inflows into
and rises on already historically high Lake Kabetogama, Namakan
Lake and Rainy Lake, and increased flows on tributaries across
the Rainy River Basin. Furthermore, gusty and erratic winds from
thunderstorms can result in increased wave action against flood
protection measures.

For more information see www.weather.gov/duluth. A Rainy River
Basin briefing page is available as a headline at the top of the
webpage.

$$

PA/JDS



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