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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
1211 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>073-176-041615-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Western Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Northern Queens-
1211 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

$$



Tropical Storm Warning

Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 26
National Weather Service New York NY  AL092020
1118 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NJZ105-032330-
/O.CON.KOKX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Western Essex-
1118 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Orange
    - Caldwell
    - Millburn

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 65 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday morning
          until Tuesday evening

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
      to 73 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
          storm force.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
          should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
          significant wind damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
          damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
          buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
          failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
          Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
        - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
          numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
          fences and roadway signs blown over.
        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
          urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
          and access routes impassable.
        - Scattered power and communications outages, but more
          prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
          likely.
        - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
          if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
          may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
          barriers may become stressed.
        - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down
          valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and
          mudslides.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
          weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - https://www.essexsheriff.com
    - https://weather.gov/nyc
    - https://ready.gov/hurricanes

$$



Hurricane Local Statement

Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 25
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-031815-

Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 25
National Weather Service New York NY  AL092020
611 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut

***TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST***

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Orange and Putnam
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Bronx, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern
      Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Kings (Brooklyn), New York
      (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern
      Queens, Northwestern Suffolk, Richmond (Staten Island),
      Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex,
      Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven, Southern New London,
      Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, Southwestern Suffolk,
      Western Bergen, Western Essex, and Western Union

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bronx, Eastern
      Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson,
      Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk,
      Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northwestern Suffolk,
      Richmond (Staten Island), Southeastern Suffolk, Southern
      Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New
      Haven, Southern New London, Southern Queens, Southern
      Westchester, Southwestern Suffolk, Western Bergen, Western
      Essex, and Western Union
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northern Fairfield,
      Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London,
      Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, and Western
      Passaic

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 830 miles south-southwest of New York City NY or about
      900 miles south-southwest of Montauk Point NY
    - 29.7N 79.9W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement North or 355 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Isaias, located off the north Florida coast,
will continue to move to the north this morning, turning
north-northeast this afternoon along the southeast coast. Isaias will
continue moving northeast tonight over Eastern North Carolina. Isaias
will slowly weaken as it accelerates northeast on Tuesday, likely moving
over our area Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is still some timing and
intensity uncertainty with this storm. However, confidence continues to
increase with respect to the magnitude of local hazards and impacts.

The main threats with this system involve heavy rainfall, strong winds,
minor to moderate coastal flooding, along with high surf and dangerous rip
currents.

Locally heavy rain is expected with a widespread 2 to 4 inches,
with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible. The heaviest rain is most
likely to occur across New York City, Northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson
Valley early Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening, and eastern sections Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. The strongest winds are likely to occur across Long
Island, coastal Connecticut, and the New York City Metro. Dangerous marine
conditions are likely across all of the coastal waters Tuesday and
Tuesday night. High surf and dangerous rip currents are expected along
the ocean beaches Monday through Wednesday.

The effects from Tropical Storm Isaias are expected to diminish
quickly from southwest to northeast across the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across northeastern New Jersey, New York City, and the
Lower Hudson Valley.
Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple
      places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down
      valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and
      mudslides.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern
Connecticut. Potential impacts include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across shoreline communities. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - There is potential for widespread minor to locally moderate coastal
      flooding across the Lower New York Harbor and South Shore Back Bays,
      with localized minor flooding impacts elsewhere.
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low lying spots.
    - Sections of near shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong and frequent rip
      currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern
Connecticut. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Make sure you are in
a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, Turn Around Don`t Drown!

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge prone area, you could find
yourself cut off by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by local authorities.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high winds, such as near large
trees, a mobile home, upper floors of a high rise building, or on a
boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong
winds or flooding.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

Closely monitor http://weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news
outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible
changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive
weather warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see http://ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see
http://getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see
http://redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in New York NY around 12 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
347 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-032200-
/O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0002.200804T1000Z-200805T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Southern Queens-
347 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York,
  including the following areas, in northeast New Jersey,
  Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union,
  Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and
  Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn),
  New York (Manhattan), Northern Queens, Northern Westchester,
  Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southern
  Queens, and Southern Westchester.

* From Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night

* Rain showers with embedded thunderstorms out ahead and with
  Tropical Storm Isaias will move into the region Tuesday into
  Tuesday night. A total of 2 to 4 inches of rain will be
  possible with locally higher amounts between 4 and 6 inches.
  Torrential downpours with multiple rounds of heavy showers
  will allow for excessive runoff and therefore would cause
  flash flooding in low lying, urban and poor drainage areas.
  Some smaller streams and rivers may exceed their banks.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$




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NOAA National Weather Service
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Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
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