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2 products issued by NWS for: Utica NY
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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
326 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

NYZ036-037-045-046-262030-
Madison-Southern Oneida-Chenango-Otsego-
326 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Several inches of snow could accumulate quickly Wednesday night and
Thursday morning...especially across the higher terrain.

Thursday afternoon and Thursday night could be windy with sustained
winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts.

A period of lake effect snow will develop late Thursday and continue
into the weekend. Snow totals of up to a foot are possible over a
three to four day period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$



Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook
NYC007-015-017-023-025-053-065-067-077-097-099-101-105-107-109-
123-PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-271700-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1200 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...BELOW AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH MARCH 5...

This is the fourth in the series of regularly scheduled
hydrologic outlooks issued during the Winter and Spring season.
This outlook is designed to provide a general overview of river
flood potential (not flash flooding) across Central New York and
Northeast Pennsylvania for the next two weeks...February 20th to
March 5th.

...SUMMARY...

Although snow cover has increased across the Central New York
basins, snow depths and water equivalent remain generally only
near to below average in most locations, and especially across
Northeast Pennsylvania. The major rivers and headwater tributaries
are running slightly higher than typical for this time of year,
but there is no significant ice cover. Ground states remain
unusually moist and partially frozen. With a lack of significant
rainfall, or warmer than seasonally average temperatures expected
for the next two weeks, the overall assessment of the flood
potential for the NWS Binghamton hydrologic outlook area is BELOW
AVERAGE.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...

.CHEMUNG BASIN...
.Precipitation (past 14 days): Above average.
.Snow Cover: Below average. Local areas near average.
.Snow Water Equivalent: Below average. Local areas near average.
.14-Day Average Streamflow: Average to above average
.River Ice: Below normal. No ice.
.Ground State: Very moist. Partially frozen.

.NORTH BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA BASIN (NY)...
.Precipitation (past 14 days): Above average.
.Snow Cover: Below average. Local headwaters above average.
.Snow Water Equivalent: Below average. Local headwaters above average.
.14-Day Average Streamflow...Above average.
.River Ice...Below normal. No ice.
.Ground State... Very moist. Partially frozen.

.UPPER MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA BASIN (PA)...
.Precipitation (past 14 days)...Above average.
.Snow Cover...Below average.
.Water Equivalent...Below average.
.14-day Average Streamflow...Above average.
.River Ice...Below normal. No ice.
.Ground State...Unusually moist. Partially frozen.

.UPPER DELAWARE BASIN...
.Precipitation (past 14 days)...Above average.
.Snow Cover...Below average.
.Water Equivalent...Below average.
.14-Day Avg. Streamflow...Much above average.
.River Ice...Below normal. No ice.
.Reservoir Levels...Above the long term median.
.Ground State...Unusually moist. Partially frozen.

.OSWEGO DRAINAGE / FINGER LAKES...
.Precipitation (past 14 days)...Above average.
.Snow Cover...Below average.
.Water Equivalent...Below average.
.14-Day Average Streamflow...Average.
.River Ice...Below normal. No ice.
.Lake Levels...Normal winter pools.
.Ground State...Extremely moist. Partially frozen.

...FORECAST OUTLOOK...

.FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS: The official 6 to 14 day outlook
indicates colder than seasonal mean temperatures and above
average precipitation. Ensemble mean forecast guidance confirms a
colder than usual temperature outlook, but suggests only a near
to below average precipitation profile through March 5th.

.LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS:
The ensemble of river forecast system guidance suggests a limited
chance (10% or less chance) of minor flooding through early March
at some of the more sensitive headwater basins of the Susquehanna
and Upper Delaware basins. When comparing current hydrologic
forecast modeling against historical flows, most basins were
indicating an average to below average risk of flooding into the
first week of March.

...IN CONCLUSION...

This outlook estimates the potential for river and lake flooding
based on a current overview of hydro-meteorological factors which
contribute to flooding.

It is important to note that significant flooding does not occur
from snow melt alone. Rainfall is the most important factor in
determining the occurrence and severity of flooding in our area.

The next Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by this
office on March 5th 2020. If conditions change in the interim:
Flood Watches, Warnings or Advisories will be issued as
necessary.

$$

JAB



U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
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Silver Spring, MD 20910
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