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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
1211 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

CTZ005>012-NYZ078-079-177-041615-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Northern Nassau-
1211 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

$$



Tropical Storm Warning

Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
National Weather Service New York NY  AL092020
226 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NYZ079-040230-
/O.CON.KOKX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Northeastern Suffolk-
226 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Wading River
    - Mattituck
    - Orient

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon
          until early Wednesday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
      to 73 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
          storm force.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
          should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
          significant wind damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
          damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
          buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
          failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
          Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
        - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
          numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
          fences and roadway signs blown over.
        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
          urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
          and access routes impassable.
        - Scattered power and communications outages, but more
          prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet
          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
        - Window of concern: Tuesday afternoon until early Wednesday
          morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
      surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
        - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot
          above ground.
        - PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding,
          especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions
          become unsafe.
        - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
          your area.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
          immediate shorelines and in low lying spots, or in areas
          farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
        - Sections of near shore roads and parking lots become
          overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous
          in places where surge water covers the road.
        - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes,
          mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong and frequent
          rip currents.
        - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks,
          boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from
          moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher
          amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      moderate flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and streams may quickly become swollen with swifter
          currents and may overspill their banks in a few places,
          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
          creeks, canals, and ditches may overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low lying spots, and
          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
          closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - http://scoem.suffolkcountyny.gov
    - https://weather.gov/nyc
    - https://ready.gov/hurricanes

$$



Hurricane Local Statement

Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 26
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-040045-

Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 26
National Weather Service New York NY  AL092020
1241 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut

**TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern
      New Haven, Northern New London, Northern Westchester, Orange,
      Putnam, Rockland, and Western Passaic

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bronx, Eastern
      Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson,
      Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk,
      Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern Nassau,
      Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Northern Queens,
      Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange, Putnam,
      Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk,
      Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau,
      Southern New Haven, Southern New London, Southern Queens,
      Southern Westchester, Southwestern Suffolk, Western Bergen,
      Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 770 miles south-southwest of New York City NY or about
      850 miles southwest of Montauk Point NY
    - 30.7N 80.1W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Isaias, located off the north Florida coast, will
continue to move to the north this morning, turning north-northeast
this afternoon along the southeast coast. Isaias will continue moving
northeast tonight over Eastern North Carolina. Isaias will slowly
weaken as it accelerates northeast on Tuesday, likely moving over our
area Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is still some timing and
intensity uncertainty with this storm. However, confidence continues
to increase with respect to the magnitude of local hazards and
impacts.

The main threats with this system involve heavy rainfall, strong
winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding, along with high surf and
dangerous rip currents.

Locally heavy rain is expected with a widespread 2 to 4 inches,
with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible. The heaviest rain is most
likely to occur across New York City, Northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson
Valley early Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening, and eastern sections Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. The strongest winds are likely to occur across Long
Island, southern Westchester and southern Connecticut, and the New
York City and New Jersey Metro areas. Dangerous marine conditions are
likely across all of the coastal waters Tuesday and Tuesday night. High
surf and dangerous rip currents are expected along the ocean beaches
Monday through Wednesday.

The effects from Tropical Storm Isaias are expected to diminish
quickly from southwest to northeast across the area Tuesday night.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across northeast New Jersey, New York City, and the
Lower Hudson Valley. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple
      places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down
      valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and
      mudslides.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut.
Potential impacts include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across shoreline communities. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong and frequent rip
      currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut.
Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Make sure you are in
a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, Turn Around Don`t Drown!

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge prone area, you could find
yourself cut off by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by local authorities.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high winds, such as near large
trees, a mobile home, upper floors of a high rise building, or on a
boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong
winds or flooding.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

Closely monitor http://weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news
outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible
changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive
weather warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see http://ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see
http://getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see
http://redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in New York NY by 6 pm EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$




U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
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