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2 products issued by NWS for: 2 Miles W Fairfax OK
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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
459 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
459 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Primarily morning through mid afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will track along the Oklahoma
Kansas border and spread into portions of far northwest Arkansas
late this morning. The associated outflow boundary may serve as
a focus for additional storm development through mid afternoon
before the boundary lifts north of the region. The majority of
storms are likely to remain below severe limits, however a limited
risk of a brief severe storm will exist this morning. Any storms
which do develop this afternoon would also pose a limited
risk of severe weather. Additional showers and storms are likely
to spread into portions of eastern Oklahoma late tonight, however
severe weather potential appears less likely with any of these
storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY through TUESDAY...Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY through FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and storms are expected daily beginning Sunday
and likely continuing through Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall
is likely with the repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Flooding concerns may eventually increase next week including
the potential for main stem river flooding. The overall pattern
does not favor widespread severe weather, however some increase in
severe potential may develop Monday and Tuesday as higher
instability develops across the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$



Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1117 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ054>076-151830-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-
Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-Muskogee-
McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville,
Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren,
Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith, Pawhuska, Bartlesville, Nowata,
Vinita, Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore, Pryor, Grove, Jay,
Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Tahlequah, Stilwell,
Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler, Wilburton,
and Poteau
1117 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021

.NOW...
At 11:17 AM...Doppler radars detected scattered showers and
thunderstorms ongoing across portions of northwest Arkansas.
Recent isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed further
west, back across parts of northeast Oklahoma. All of this
activity was moving east at around 30 mph.

Through 1:30 PM...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue across Benton, Carroll, as well as northern sections of
Washington and Madison counties in Arkansas. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will also be possible across areas in northeast
Oklahoma, along and north of a Bristow to Colcord line. Most
affected areas can expected hourly rainfall of around one tenth of
an inch. Locally higher amounts of one half inch or more per hour
will be possible in thunderstorms.

$$



U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
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Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
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