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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
459 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
459 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Primarily morning through mid afternoon.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will track along the Oklahoma
Kansas border and spread into portions of far northwest Arkansas
late this morning. The associated outflow boundary may serve as
a focus for additional storm development through mid afternoon
before the boundary lifts north of the region. The majority of
storms are likely to remain below severe limits, however a limited
risk of a brief severe storm will exist this morning. Any storms
which do develop this afternoon would also pose a limited
risk of severe weather. Additional showers and storms are likely
to spread into portions of eastern Oklahoma late tonight, however
severe weather potential appears less likely with any of these

Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY through TUESDAY...Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY through FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

Widespread showers and storms are expected daily beginning Sunday
and likely continuing through Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall
is likely with the repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Flooding concerns may eventually increase next week including
the potential for main stem river flooding. The overall pattern
does not favor widespread severe weather, however some increase in
severe potential may develop Monday and Tuesday as higher
instability develops across the region. contains additional information.


Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
922 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-
McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville,
Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren,
Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith, Pawhuska, Bartlesville, Nowata,
Vinita, Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore, Pryor, Grove, Jay,
Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Tahlequah, Stilwell,
Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler, Wilburton,
and Poteau
922 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021

At 9:22 AM...Doppler radars detected scattered showers and
thunderstorms ongoing across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. This activity continues to move off to the
east at around 30 mph.

Through 11:30 AM...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible for far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, mainly
north of interstate 40 and east of highway 69. Average hourly
rainfall of up to one tenth of an inch will be common, with
locally higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Small hail and
gusty winds are also possible with the stronger storms that occur.


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NOAA National Weather Service
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Silver Spring, MD 20910
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