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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
451 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
451 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
ONSET...Mid to Late Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing...but lessening after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing...but conditions will improve after sunset.

AREA OF GREATER CONCERN...Osage and Pawnee Counties.

DISCUSSION...
Gusty south winds and warm temperatures continue ahead
and behind a dry line that has pushed into northeast Oklahoma
as of late afternoon. Behind the boundary, lower humidity will
combine with gusty west to southwest winds, and will maintain
enhanced grassland fire spread rates into the early evening.
Fire weather danger should decrease after sunset as winds weaken.

Thunderstorm chances remain possible through tonight with a
cold front moving into the region, along with a disturbance that will
lift northeast through the Southern Plains. Greater thunderstorm
chances will be across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas
later this evening and into tonight.  The strongest storms will
carry a limited severe potential, with Large hail and locally strong winds
the primary threats. Additional thunderstorms will be possible during
the overnight hours across northeast Oklahoma as the front moves through
that area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm...High Wind and Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The cold front is forecast to become nearly stationary over the
region tonight and then slowly sag southeast Tuesday. This will
allow for additional shower and thunderstorm chances mainly over
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas Tuesday. A limited severe
potential will again be possible with large hail and locally
strong winds the main threats. Thunderstorm potential will
decrease Tuesday evening as the front tries to exit the region.
However, rain chances could linger into Wednesday for parts of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Shower and thunderstorm chances quickly return Wednesday night and
Thursday, and continue through Friday night with another low
pressure system and associated cold front moving through the
Plains. The greater thunderstorm potential will be as the low
pressure system moves over the region Thursday into Friday.
Locally heavy rainfall could be possible as well late week.
Precipitation chances finally taper off and exit Saturday with the
departing low pressure.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$



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