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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1254 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1254 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021


...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...This Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...This Afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...This Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...This Afternoon.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms currently across northern Texas will move into southeast
Oklahoma this afternoon, along with additional scattered development possible
further north. With surface boundaries in place, The greater potential for
severe weather will be across southeast Oklahoma where large hail
and damaging winds will be the primary threats.  An isolated tornado is also
possible with any storm that interacts with a localized boundary across
southeast Oklahoma. While a lower severe weather risk will be in place
further north, large hail and locally damaging winds will also be the
primary threats.

Abundant moisture over the region will also allow for periods of
heavy rainfall through tonight. Widespread 1 to 2 inches and
locally greater will be possible across parts of southeast
Oklahoma, where a flood watch is in effect. Further north,
lesser amounts in the half inch to locally over one inch range
are possible. This rainfall on top of recent rains will increase
flash as well as river flooding concerns.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing
across the region Wednesday morning with additional storm
development possible into Wednesday night. Again, periods of heavy
rainfall will be possible and combined with forecast rains Tuesday
will continue to increase flooding and river flooding concerns. A
limited severe weather potential may remain possible as well
Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorms chances continue through the
end of the week before a low pressure system currently to the west
finally weakens and lifts off to the northeast. A ridge of high
pressure expands into the region over the weekend allowing for
precipitation chances to retreat westward and a warming trend to
develop over eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Continue to monitor updated forecasts as forecast rainfall
through Wednesday night could likely increase mainstem river
flooding concerns.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$



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