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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
449 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201100-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
449 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Much of southeast-far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas,
near the Kansas border late.
ONSET...Ongoing...ending by 8 PM. The near Kansas border threat begins
after 2 AM.

DISCUSSION...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible thru the afternoon across
southeast and far eastern Oklahoma as well as northwest Arkansas.
Dangerous lightning and gusty winds are possible. Severe weather
is not expected.

Storms developing out on the the high Plains of western Kansas
this afternoon will eventually grow upscale into a complex as they
merge with other storms coming in from Colorado. While this
complex is expected to weaken and dissipate tonight, the outflow
boundary from this activity may set off additional storms near the
Kansas border late tonight. This activity is not expected to be
severe.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

The boundary from tonight`s storms is expected to settle down into
northeast Oklahoma on Wednesday. The boundary will become a focus
for thunderstorm development over this region by afternoon, with
some potential for severe hail and winds as wind shear aloft
gradually strengthens with an approaching upper trough. Storms
may eventually congeal into one or more clusters and move toward
southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Wednesday evening before
weakening. These clusters will initially have a damaging wind and
locally heavy rain threat.

After a relative lull in the activity Thursday and Thursday night
behind a cold front, the threat for severe storms will ramp back
up Friday night into Saturday as storms develop on the high Plains
and become a southeastward complex into the region. Strengthening
northwest flow aloft suggests that there is an elevated severe
weather threat with these storms. Severe storm potential increases
again on Saturday afternoon near lingering boundaries, with those
storms likely organizing into one more potentially severe southeastward
moving complexes again Saturday night. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible as well.

Some potential for storms will linger into Sunday along any
residual boundaries before the threat gradually comes to an end by
Monday of next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$

Lacy




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