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2 products issued by NWS for: Tiawah OK
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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
511 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
511 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
    ONSET...Mainly After Midnight.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A stationary boundary was across southeast Oklahoma near the Red
River extending into central Arkansas. Temperatures near and south
of the boundary will top out in the low to mid 90s. This will
allow heat index values to average around 100 to 103 degrees.
Scattered thunderstorms have developed over south central
Oklahoma, and may hold together long enough to impact far
southeast Oklahoma this evening, with a limited threat for gusty
winds.

Thunderstorm chances will increase more substantially overnight
as a strong weather system approaches from the west. Thunderstorms
developing in the High Plains this afternoon will move east
during the evening, reaching eastern Oklahoma well after midnight.
Rain and storms will likely push into the Tulsa and McAlester
areas by early to mid Sunday morning and into western Arkansas by
late morning or early afternoon on Sunday. No severe storms are
expected overnight, though lightning and heavy downpours are
likely from the strongest storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY through THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storms will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning as they spread
from west to east across the area. There will be a limited chance
for some strong to severe storms to form Sunday afternoon,
depending on if the airmass can become unstable enough in the wake
of morning rains. The main threats from any severe weather would
be isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Heavy rain
will also be a concern with some areas forecast to receive 1-2" of
rain on Sunday. Thunderstorms will remain possible into Monday as
the upper system and cold front slowly move through. Dry and
cooler weather is expected Tuesday with limited chance of
thunderstorms returning mid-week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$




Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1127 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-190600-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-
Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-
Cherokee-Adair-Muskogee-McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-
Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville,
Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren,
Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith, Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Pawhuska,
Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore,
Pryor, Grove, Jay, Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Tahlequah,
Stilwell, Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler,
Wilburton, and Poteau
1127 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

.NOW...
At 11:23 PM...Doppler radars detected scattered showers and thunderstorms
located along a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Soper to 2
miles northwest of Goodland to 10 miles west of Manchester. This
activity was propagating northeast at 25 mph.

Through 100 AM...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
propagate northeast through Choctaw into Pushmataha county. Gusty
winds to 50 mph, brief heavy rainfall and small hail will be
possible with the stronger thunderstorm activity.


$$




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NOAA National Weather Service
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Silver Spring, MD 20910
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