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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
456 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
456 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Mainly Eastern Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue to track east and
northeast across eastern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas through
the remainder of the afternoon and evening. A few strong to briefly
severe storms will be possible during this time frame, but no organized
severe weather is expected. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible,
especially across eastern Oklahoma, and some localized flooding may
occur.

Additional storms are likely to develop overnight with both heavy
rainfall and limited severe weather potential.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY through SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A few showers and thunderstorms may still be ongoing early Monday
morning with a continued risk of heavy rainfall. A brief lull in
rain chances is forecast later Monday, with the next round of
widespread rains expected Monday night through Tuesday. The
repeated widespread rain periods will allow heavy rainfall
accumulations, and both flash flooding and mainstem river flooding
may become a hazard. The unsettled weather pattern is likely to
extend into late next week. Heavy rainfall and flooding potential
will remain the primary concern.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Flood watches and warnings may be required with updated forecasts.
Areal flooding, including larger river flooding, should be
anticipated especially across parts of southeast and also far
northeast Oklahoma.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$




Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
906 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-170445-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-
Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-
Cherokee-Adair-Muskogee-McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-
Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville,
Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren,
Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith, Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Pawhuska,
Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore,
Pryor, Grove, Jay, Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Tahlequah,
Stilwell, Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler,
Wilburton, and Poteau
906 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

.NOW...
At 9:05PM National Weather Service doppler radars continued to
indicate areas of showers and isolated storms across parts of
eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. The heaviest activity
was located from Bristow north-northeastward to about
Bartlesville. All of this activity was moving northeast at around
30 miles per hour.

Through 11:45PM... showers and thunderstorms will likely continue
though the overall coverage will continue to decrease with the
loss of daytime heating. Some additional storm development across
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas will be possible. Heavy
downpours as well as dangerous cloud- to- ground lightning will
be expected with any storms tonight. The overall severe threat
continues to decrease but the threat is not zero.

$$
Snider




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