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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1257 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1257 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...West of Highway 75 in Northeast and East Central Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
North to northeasterly winds will continue to gust to 20 mph this
afternoon across parts of eastern Oklahoma and combined with
minimum relative humidities from 30 to 40 percent, will lead to a
limited risk of rapid fire spread for areas along and west of
Highway 75 in northeast and east central Oklahoma. Conditions will
improve by early evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Winter Weather Potential.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Accumulating ice, snow and sleet remain likely for portions of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday and into Tuesday
night. Showers are expected to move into parts of southeast
Oklahoma Tuesday morning and expand northward during the day. With
a cold airmass already in place, precipitation will likely begin
as a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain across all except
far southeast Oklahoma. However, as warmer air moves into the
area from the south, areas especially along and south of
Interstate 40 should see all rain during the afternoon hours.
Drizzle and freezing drizzle will be the most likely precipitation
types Tuesday night, as the mid levels begin to dry out from the
southwest.

Uncertainties remain with the evolution of surface temperatures
and also how quickly the mid levels will dry out, both of which
will impact precipitation types and timing their transitions at
any one location. At this time, the highest ice accumulations look
to be within the higher terrain areas of far northwest Arkansas,
while the maximum snow and sleet accumulations look most likely to
the northwest of Interstate 44. Stay up-to-date with latest
updates as details continue to be refined.

The middle to latter part of the work week should be fairly quiet,
but another storm system on Saturday will bring the potential for
scattered thunderstorms, locally heavy rain, and perhaps a few
severe thunderstorms.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Continue to monitor latest forecasts as ice, snow, and sleet
accumulations could create hazardous travel and perhaps isolated
power outages, especially across parts of far northwest Arkansas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$



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