National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Severe Thunderstorms in the Southeast U.S.; Critical Fire Weather in the Central and Southern Plains

Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur. Gusty to high winds and low relative humidity will bring critical fire weather to the central and southern Plains today into Tuesday. Read More >

Current conditions at

Merced Regional Airport (KMCE)

Lat: 37.28306°NLon: 120.50778°WElev: 154.0ft.

Overcast

63°F

17°C

Humidity 48%
Wind Speed SSE 19 MPH
Barometer 29.91 in (1012.87 mb)
Dewpoint 43°F (6°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 15 Feb 12:20 PM PST
Extended Forecast for

Merced CASimilar City Names

  • This Afternoon

    This Afternoon: A 30 percent chance of rain after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 63. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

    High: 63 °F

    Chance Rain

  • Tonight

    Tonight: Rain, mainly after 10pm. Low around 50. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

    Low: 50 °F

    Rain

  • Washington's Birthday

    Washington's Birthday: Rain before 4pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. High near 53. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

    High: 53 °F

    Showers

  • Monday Night

    Monday Night: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 10pm, then rain likely. Low around 43. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    Low: 43 °F

    Showers then
    Rain Likely

  • Tuesday

    Tuesday: A chance of rain, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 10am. High near 50. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

    High: 50 °F

    Showers

  • Tuesday Night

    Tuesday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 1am, then rain likely after 1am. Low around 38. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

    Low: 38 °F

    Showers then
    Showers
    Likely

  • Wednesday

    Wednesday: A 50 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 50. South southeast wind around 5 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

    High: 50 °F

    Chance Rain

  • Wednesday Night

    Wednesday Night: Rain likely, mainly after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. East southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

    Low: 39 °F

    Rain Likely

  • Thursday

    Thursday: Rain likely, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Southeast wind around 10 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

    High: 50 °F

    Rain Likely

Detailed Forecast

This Afternoon
A 30 percent chance of rain after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 63. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tonight
Rain, mainly after 10pm. Low around 50. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Washington's Birthday
Rain before 4pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. High near 53. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Monday Night
Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 10pm, then rain likely. Low around 43. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday
A chance of rain, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 10am. High near 50. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 1am, then rain likely after 1am. Low around 38. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday
A 50 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 50. South southeast wind around 5 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Rain likely, mainly after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. East southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday
Rain likely, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Southeast wind around 10 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming northeast after midnight.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. East wind around 5 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. East wind around 5 mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. Southeast wind around 5 mph.
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Forecast Area
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ABOUT THIS FORECAST

 
Point Forecast:
Merced CASimilar City Names
 37.3°N 120.49°W (Elev. 174 ft)
Last Update:
11:57 am PST Feb 15, 2026
Forecast Valid:
12pm PST Feb 15, 2026-6pm PST Feb 21, 2026
 
Forecast Discussion
 
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Additional Resources

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Chance of Precipitation