Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
562 FXUS66 KHNX 262307 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 407 PM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025 .UPDATE... Aviation and Air Quality Sections Updated && && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Warm, well above normal temperatures are expected this afternoon, though they will be about 5 to 7 degrees cooler when compared to yesterday`s highs. Cooling is forecast to continue through the rest of the week ahead of the upcoming system. 2. Tomorrow, a deep trough will edge offshore across the Pacific Northwest and usher in precipitation potential to the Central Sierra Nevada. There is a 40 to 70 percent chance for 24 hour snowfall of 0.5 inches in the higher elevations of Yosemite National Park ending 11 AM Friday. 3. Winds remain a threat for the Mojave Slopes Thursday through Saturday with a 70 to 90 percent chance for maximum wind gusts to exceed 50 mph each day. A Wind Advisory has been issued for this time period. && .DISCUSSION... Another warm and clear day is expected today, with continued well above normal high temperatures this afternoon. This is due to a ridge retaining influence over much of Central California. A storm system situated off the coast of the Pacific Northwest is pushing in cooler marine air through Pacheco Pass, on the western border of Merced County. This air is causing temperatures to become cooler to the north of Fresno, while locations south of Fresno remain warmer. This trough is expected to move further inland through tomorrow, which will bring a chance for a small amount of precipitation through Friday, though the main threat is expected to be wind with this system. The strongest winds are forecast to occur on the Mojave Desert Slopes beginning Thursday morning. As the trough moves through the region, winds are expected to remain elevated through at least Saturday afternoon before becoming calm again. The time period of strongest winds is likely Friday afternoon and evening. A Wind Advisory as been issued from 11 AM Thursday through 5 PM Saturday with winds of 30 to 40 MPH expected and wind gusts of 50 to 55 MPH are expected for most of the Advisory, with gusts up to 60 MPH possible Friday afternoon and evening. Along with the winds are cooler temperatures across our CWA, with the Valley likely returning to the upper 60`s by Friday and staying consistent through Sunday. Looking to next week, another trough may bring more precipitation chances to the region, though right now models currently indicate a shallower trough that may drop a light amount of precipitation, with probabilities for an inch of snow at the highest elevation at 40 to 60 percent on Monday. Further into next week, there is plenty of uncertainty when it comes to next Wednesday. The GFS model has a strong trough coming in off the coast and bringing in large amounts of moisture, with even the CPC putting a moderate risk of heavy rain for the Valley and Foothills and a moderate risk of heavy snow for the Sierra Nevada, all on April 2nd next week. However, the European model has the trough centered on the Great Basin and much shallower compared to the GFS. Given this disparity, certainty is low when it comes to a potential system next Wednesday, model runs would need to converge so certainty can increase. && .AVIATION... 00Z Update: VFR conditions and light winds will prevail across the Central CA interior for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 5 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ338. && $$ Public/Fire Weather...EW Aviation.............JPK DSS/PIO...............Castro weather.gov/hanford