Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
386 FXUS66 KHNX 091206 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 406 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation Section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Moderate confidence for dense valley fog to form again in the San Joaquin Valley Monday morning. 2. There is high confidence of more widespread rain and snow from late Monday until late Wednesday. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Sierra Nevada Mountains above 6000 feet from Monday night until Wednesday afternoon. 3. Stronger winds also anticipated with the midweek system along the Sierra crests and in the lee side of the Coastal Range and Tehachapi Mountains. 4. There is medium confidence of a second system moving through late next weekend bringing additional rain and snow to the region. && .DISCUSSION... Another night of dense fog is possible tonight, as the pattern aloft transitions from slight ridging to trough as the storm system moves east. The most likely places for dense fog are in the center of the San Joaquin Valley south of Madera and north of Bakersfield and mainly in the rural areas of the Valley. While possibly patchy, this fog may still be dense in those patchy areas, so a High Transportation Risk exists for the areas included in the Dense Fog Advisory, which is valid starting at midnight tonight through 11 AM tomorrow morning. The main story for this week weatherwise is the upcoming storm system coming through Monday night into Tuesday morning, with the majority of the precipitation expected to fall on Tuesday and Wednesday. Most of this precipitation is expected to fall as snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains above 6000 feet, with total accumulations of 4 to 10 inches above 6000 feet, and 12 to 18 inches above 7000 feet. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this region from 10 PM Monday through 4 PM Wednesday with much of the snow falling on Tuesday. Wind gusts with this snow are expected to be 40 to 50 mph. These wind gusts are also expected to occur further south in the Tehachapi mountains and the Mojave Desert Slopes, where probabilities for gusts of 55 mph or higher are 40-50%. As for rainfall, the Valley currently has a 60-70% chance for a tenth of an inch on Wednesday, the most likely day for the most rainfall. In the foothills, there is a 70-80% chance for at least a half inch of rainfall. With these percentages in mind, it seems this system is more of a snow maker than a rain maker. Another aspect to note are the thunderstorm chances with this system. They currently stand around 10-15%, mainly in the foothills and north of Tulare County on Wednesday. So isolated cells are possible that afternoon. Looking further into the forecast for next weekend into that following week, there is medium, but growing confidence in a much colder and longer lasting storm system moving through California by Saturday through at least next Wednesday. Firstly, long term models are showing some confidence in significantly lowering snow levels as the system moves through the region, with the 25th percentile from the NBM showing snow levels falling from 5000 feet on Saturday to around 2500 feet on the following Monday, then remaining consistent through Wednesday. The 75th percentile only raises these elevations by about 2000-3000 feet, which puts the lowest snow levels around 4000 feet, which is still around the elevation of the I-5 through Tejon Pass. And more precipitation is expected with this system, which looks to be more intense than the upcoming system this week. Current probabilities for a foot of snowfall in the Sierra Nevada are 40-50% for elevation between 4000 and 7000 feet, and 60-70% in elevation above 7000 feet. Snow may even fall in the foothills if the 25th percentile snow level verifies. The model runs for this system have remained consistent in showing the potential for a storm system, with increasing intensity of that storm, which will be continually monitored for large changes in that forecast. && .AVIATION... A 50-70% chance for IFR or worse visibilities across the San Joaquin Valley until 20Z Today. A 20-40% chance for VLIFR conditions during the same time frame. However, a 40-60% chance for VLIFR conditions will exist from KHJO to KVIS and down toward KDLO until 20Z Today. Afterward, VFR/MVFR conditions return after 20Z Today before the threat of precipitation enters the region after 04Z Tuesday. VFR conditions will prevail across the Mojave Desert for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Monday February 9 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for CAZ302-303- 306-307-310>312-315. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ323-326>331. && $$ Aviation....Molina weather.gov/hanford