Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 241148
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
436 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will continue for the next several
days. Temperatures will remain above normal through Tuesday,
then cool to seasonable levels during the mid to later part
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Skies are clear across the central California
interior early this morning and temperatures are trending a
little higher in most locations compared to 24 hours ago. If
this trend continues, today will end up as one of the hottest
days so far this year. Our current hot spell is nothing
extraordinary for June, but it will be the longest stretch of
triple digit heat so far this year and it will pose health
risks for people who`ve not yet acclimated to it. In the
hottest valley locations, thermometer readings will reach 105
degrees this afternoon. This is a miniature heat wave compared
to last June. Exactly one year ago, the central California
interior was in the midst of a 7 to 10 day stretch of triple
digit heat. During that relentless hot spell between the 17th
and 26th of June last year, temperatures peaked between 107
and 110 degrees on at least a few of those days in the San
Joaquin Valley. Overnight temperatures were also unseasonably
warm during that same period and remained above 80 degrees in
Fresno and Bakersfield.

As for the current pattern, a strong upper level ridge of high
pressure is centered over the Eastern Pacific. This ridge will
build into California during the next 24 hours then reposition
itself over Arizona and New Mexico during the early part of the
week. The ridge will weaken somewhat on Monday, then pump back
up again Tuesday ahead of an upper level trough that approaches
the Pacific Northwest coast. High temperatures will respond
similarly, lowering by a few degrees Monday then bumping upward
slightly in most locations Tuesday. Despite these minor
fluctuations, high temperatures Monday and Tuesday will still
be at or above the century mark over a majority of the San
Joaquin Valley, lower foothills and the Kern County desert.

On Wednesday, the upper level trough will move inland over the
Pacific Northwest and begin to settle southward into California.
The models forecast this trough to deepen once it gets into the
Great Basin later this week. So from Wednesday through Friday,
we should expect an increase in onshore flow and a cooling trend
with temperatures averaging much closer to normal across the CWA.
The models are showing some differences in the overall pattern
after Friday. If the GFS is right, temperatures will change little
and remain pretty close to normal next weekend as the upper level
trough sits fairly idle over the Great Basin. On the other hand,
the ECM is rebuilding a strong upper level ridge over California
next weekend which could bring triple digit heat back into the
lower elevations. Hopefully the models will resolve their
differences by then. Otherwise, dry weather will continue over
the CWA for the next 7 days.

On a final note, please keep heat safety tips in mind during our
current hot spell. If you must be outdoors during the hottest
time of the day, stay hydrated, wear sunscreen and avoid strenuous
physical activity. Although rivers might seem like an inviting
place to seek cooling relief, their waters are cold and carry
swift undercurrents. Venturing into a river could be deadly. Don`t
become the next victim of a water rescue or a drowning!

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior during
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Sunday June 24 2018... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Fresno... Kern... Kings... Madera and Tulare Counties and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

public...Durfee
avn/fw...DS
synopsis...Durfee

weather.gov/hanford


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