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San Joaquin Valley, CA

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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

000
FXUS66 KHNX 271030
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
330 AM PDT Wed Sep 27 2023


.SYNOPSIS...
High temperatures are expected to remain consistent until the
weekend, and will then drop around 10 degrees below normal
Saturday and Sunday. Early next week, temperatures return to
closer to normal for the time of year. This temperature dip will
be associated with potential precip in the Sierra Nevada,
including high elevation snow near the crest. The rain may also
extend into the foothills. Dry conditions are otherwise expected
through the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies dominated Central California for the last 24 hours
while a storm continue to track over the Pacific Northwest. The
next 24 hours show no difference as skies remain clear as
temperatures remain at or just below normal. With the flow aloft
transitioning to a more cyclonic direction, change in the weather
will soon arrive across the region. While the current storm over
the Pacific Northwest will continue pushing ashore, a secondary
disturbance dropping from the Gulf of Alaska will introduce
precipitation this far south at the start of the weekend.

Now that the flow pattern has become more cyclonic, temperatures
will reflect the change with a trend toward cooler conditions. NBM
probability of exceedance of reaching 85 degrees has
significantly dropped off as many stations across the San Joaquin
Valley show values at or below 50 percent. While temperatures do
show change in the short term, weather remains unchanged as dry
conditions prevail for at least the next two days. Therefore,
confidence is high that the Central California Interior will
remain quiet through at least Friday morning.

Friday and Saturday will be the big transition days as a piece of
energy drops into the region from the Gulf of Alaska. Ensemble
upper-air Cluster Analysis has very good agreement with dropping a
deep trough over the West Coast this weekend. Cluster Analysis
shows minimal timing the position error on Saturday. While some
error does develop on Sunday, enough agreement exist to indicate
that a change to cooler and unsettled conditions will exist over
the region during the weekend. NBM probability of exceedance of
reaching 80 degrees drops to near zero on Saturday. Ensembles do
show a slight rise in temperatures toward the middle of next week,
the rise will be slow as it will be mid-week when probability of
exceedance of reaching 80 degrees reaches 60 percent next Tuesday.
At that time, ensembles dry out the region as sunshine returns
with temperatures climbing to slowing attempting to reach 90
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions are likely to exist in areas around the Redwood
Fire in Sequoia National Park. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail across the Central California interior throughout the next
24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Operations.....Molina
Social Media...EW

weather.gov/hanford