Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 242122
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
222 PM PDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon in the Sierra Nevada. Otherwise, dry and unseasonably
warm conditions will continue across central California into
early next week. Afternoon highs should return to near normal
by the second half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures continue to run several degrees above normal across
central California this afternoon under the influence of weak
high pressure near the west coast. Satellite loops show building
cu over the Sierra zones and we will likely see some showers and
thunderstorm activity there again this afternoon.

A weakness in the ridge is progged to sharpen over California
Saturday while the ridge strengthens offshore. Our temperatures
will continue their warming trend under this pattern, while there
will be a chance for additional thunderstorms over the Sierra
during the afternoon.

Sunday and Monday will see the ridge strengthen and expand over
the region and will bring us our hottest temperatures of this warm
spell. Blended model guidance gives Fresno a 63% probability of
reaching 105 degrees or higher both Sunday and Monday. Most other
San Joaquin Valley locations have lower probabilities, around 50%
at Bakersfield and Hanford, and generally 30% or less across much
of the Valley. These forecast temperatures will lead to a moderate
risk of heat related illness for persons sensitive to the heat
over most of the San Joaquin Valley and lower foothills on Sunday
and Monday. Some of the locally hottest spots, such as urban heat
islands, could see a higher risk of heat illness, and if guidance
starts showing more areas of higher heat risk, a Heat Advisory
may be warranted for Sunday and Monday.

Model ensembles push a low pressure system inland over the
Pacific Northwest region by Tuesday and deepen a trough near the
California coast through the end of next week. This will bring a
cooling trend to our area for the latter half of next week. High
temperatures Tuesday are expected to decrease a couple of degrees,
then more significant cooling, dropping to around normal or even
a bit below normal for the start of July on Friday. Blended model
guidance gives Fresno for instance a 75 percent probability of
topping out at or below 96 degrees on Friday.


&&


.AVIATION...
IFR or lower conditions are likely in and near scattered showers
and thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada through 03Z this evening
and again after 18Z Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail across the Central California Interior for at least the
next 24 hours.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Saturday June 25 2022... Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Fresno... Kern... Kings... Madera... Merced and Tulare Counties...
and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public...JEB
aviation....JEB

weather.gov/hanford


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