Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

FXUS66 KHNX 282136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
236 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS... A couple of weak disturbances will pass through the
forecast area this weekend leading to light precipitation and cool
afternoon temperatures. Temperatures will increase back to above
average next week as high pressure builds in the Eastern Pacific.
Dry conditions will prevail across the area after Monday.


.DISCUSSION... A weak disturbance moving through the region is
producing light rain in Merced and Mariposa counties, as well as
light snow showers in the higher elevations of the Sierra. A
majority of today`s precipitation occurring in the valley will
remain north of Kings County with total accumulations generally
less than 1/10 of an inch. For the Southern Sierra mountains and
foothills, accumulations are expected to remain light; with up to
1/3 of an inch of liquid precipitation and 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall above 5,000 feet. With this weak trough pushing through
the region and the increasing cloud cover, today`s high
temperatures will remain below average with primarily low 60s in
the valley and desert, 50s into the foothills, and 30s to 40s into
the high country.

Another weak system will move through the area tomorrow bringing
more light precipitation across the Central California interior.
Once again, there is not much moisture associated with the Sunday
storm. Up to 1/4 of an inch of liquid precipitation is expected in
the higher elevations of the Sierra and the Kern County mountains
along with an additional 1 to 3 inches of snowfall above 5,000
feet. Precipitation totals will be generally less than 1/10 of an
inch for the entire valley and little to no precipitation in the
desert. Sunday temperatures will remain similar to today`s with
mostly 60s in the valley and desert, 50s in the foothills, and 30s
to 40s in the high county. As the upper level trough departs the
region, dry northwesterly will setup aloft, and the modeled SFO-
LAS surface pressure gradient increases to roughly 8mb. As such,
locally gusty northwesterly winds up to 45 mph are possible
through and below the Kern County mountains passes and into the
desert on Sunday afternoon into the evening.

Once these weekend systems move out of the region, there is
decent agreement between the GFS/ECMWF through next Thursday.
Both models have an flat upper level ridge strengthening in the
Eastern Pacific with dry northwesterly flow setting up across our
CWA. After Thursday, models begin to diverge in their respective
solutions as the GFS has a highly amplified ridge in the East
Pacific while the ECMWF has the flat ridge continuing across the
region. Despite the difference, afternoon high temperatures will
increase back to average on Monday. Temperatures will continue to
increase across the region through the end of next week. Conditions
will remain dry next week and no precipitation is expected anywhere
across our area.


.AVIATION...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visiblities in isolated
showers across Southern San Joaquin Valley, primarily north of
Kern County, will continue through Sunday afternoon. IFR conditions
and mountain obscuration in low clouds and showers will continue
through Sunday afternoon for the Southern Sierra Nevada and Kern
County mountains. Gusty winds up to 40 kts possible into the Kern
County mountains and desert are possible Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere
over the central CA interior during the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.




aviation....JEB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.