Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 210808
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
108 AM PDT Tue May 21 2024


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Temperatures climb to slightly above normal by Wednesday
before a cooldown to below normal this weekend.

2. Winds will pick up in the Kern County Desert Slopes beginning
late Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The high winds have went down in the the Kern County Desert
Slopes as a trough that brought temperatures back down to
average for the San Joaquin Valley and gusty winds in Kern
County is sliding away from our area. Latest model ensembles
show a weak ridge building in today and tomorrow leading to a
warm up to about 3 to 6 degrees above average. The warm up will
be enough that the probabilistic models show a 30 to 55 percent
chance of a high temperature of at least 90 degrees on Wednesday
with Visalia, Fresno, and Delano having the highest
probabilities.

However, model ensembles are showing that another trough will
slide into the Big Sky Country and part of the Great Basin on
Thursday. This trough will lead to temperatures dropping
beginning Thursday and will continue until becoming below
average over the weekend. There is a 30 to 50 percent chance of
a high temperature of 80 degrees or below on Saturday for the
San Joaquin Valley with Merced and Madera having the highest
probabilities at 49 and 44 percent respectively. This trough
also will help increase the wind speeds in the Kern County
Desert Slopes due to the cooler temperatures and sinking air
affiliated with a cold front. A wind product may be issued for
the winds later this week. A secondary trough will also slide
into the same area which will help keep the cooling trend and
high winds going. The cooling temperatures will also reduce the
amount of snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada as the overnight low
temperatures at and above 8,000 feet will be close to freezing.

Memorial Day looks to be the start of a change as model
ensembles are showing a ridge starting to build back in late
Sunday evening into Monday. Latest probabilities right now have
a 20 to 35 percent chance of a high temperature of 90 degrees or
higher on Memorial Day.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across the Central California
interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...

None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

JPK

weather.gov/hanford