Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 170917

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
217 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Another trough of low pressure will impact the the region
Wednesday and Thursday with light precipitation near Yosemite
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night and over the Sierra north
of Tulare county Thursday. Temperatures will remain below seasonal
values through at least Thursday. A warming trend will begin


A trough of low pressure and associated cold front moved through
central California Monday afternoon and evening, bringing gusty
winds and a change to a cooler airmass. Clouds are banked up
against the mountains at the south end of the San Joaquin Valley
and will likely remain through at least mid-morning before
dissipating. Cannot rule out a few light showers in this upslope
flow early this morning.

Another low pressure system will move into the region Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Strong, gusty winds will once again occur
over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, through and below
passes in the Kern County mountains and desert with breezy
conditions in the San Joaquin Valley as well. This system will
bring a slight chance of precipitation over Merced and Mariposa
Counties but amounts will be light with snow levels around 10,000
feet. A few showers will linger over the Sierra from Fresno
county northward on Thursday afternoon. This system will also
bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air, helping to keep
temperatures below normal through Friday.

Temperatures will warm back to near normal for the weekend as a
weak ridge of high pressure moves over the region. By early next
week, another low pressure system drops south into the region.
00Z models are not in good agreement on where this system will
go. The GFS takes it into the Great Basin, allowing temperatures
early next week to warm a few more degrees over central
California. The ECMWF wants to take it south through California
which could cool temperatures slightly and possibly bring some
light precipitation. Ensembles are not clear on the best track,
but for now am favoring the GFS solution and keeping us dry and
warmer early next week.


MVFR and local IFR conditions along the north facing slopes of the
Kern county mountains this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail through the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.




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