Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 202100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
200 PM PDT Wed Mar 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A Pacific storm system will affect the region through
Thursday. High pressure will build over the area Friday before
another weaker storm system moves across the region Friday night
and Saturday.


.DISCUSSION...Cold front which moved through central CA overnight
has moved east of the area. In wake of this frontal system, a
much cooler and unstable airmass is now situated over our area.
Temperatures across our area are currently running 6 to 10 DEG F
below yday at this time at most locations. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms have already developed this afternoon, and are
currently producing locally heavy rainfall over the western
portion of the San Joaquin Valley. WRF indicating the unstable
airmass will remain over our area well into this evening with
CAPES between 400 and 800 J/KG and LI/s between -4 and -2 DEG C
which will keep a potential for thunderstorms throughout our CWFA
this afternoon and evening.

Meanwhile, SREF indicating the trough axis will swing through
Central CA tonight. Once the trough axis moves through the San
Joaquin Valley will slowly dry out and skies will slowly clear
except along the east side and south end which will be upslope
favored. Showers will be possible over the Southern Sierra NEvada
and Tehachapi Mountains through Thursday, but amounts will be
light. By Thursday Night, most of our area should clear out.

The low pressure system is progged to approach Norcal on Friday
and moves inland on Saturday. The models are continuing to trend
further north with the main precipitation band with this feature
Friday night and Saturday. At this time QPF progs are indicating
another quarter to half an inch from Fresno County northward and
much less further south in Tulare and Kern Counties. The central
San Joaquin Valley is expected to pick up a tenth to a quarter
inch of rainfall Friday Night and Saturday with lesser amounts
further south with up to a tenth of an inch in Kings and Tulare
Counties and just a few hundredths of an inch in Kern County.

The medium range models are in good agreement with shortwave
ridging prevailing on Sunday the progs a series of very moist
system moving through the PAC NW and Norcal Monday through the
middle of next week. At this time it looks that precipitation
amounts for our area during this time frame will be light at the
bulk of the deeper moisture and the stronger dynamics remain to
the north of our area.


.AVIATION...Windy conditions will continue today over Kern County
with local gusts reaching 35 knots over the mountain peaks. Areas
of mountain obscuring IFR will continue across the Southern
Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains until 12Z Thursday. Local
MVFR conditions in low clouds and showers in the San Joaquin
Valley and southern Sierra foothills. Isolated thunderstorms
possible after 19Z Wednesday. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail elsewhere across the Central CA Interior the next 24





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



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