Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 201005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
305 AM PDT Mon May 20 2019

A short break from the wet weather today before more precipitation
moves into the region on Tuesday. Unsettled pattern will
continue through the week with slowly moderating temperatures.


After a very busy weather day yesterday, a few showers continue to
move across the southern part of the CWA early this morning. The
showers will continue to move south and diminish this morning the
upper low continues to exit the region. Today will be much quieter
with below average temperatures and dry northwesterly flow. Only
a few light showers will remain over the Sierra this afternoon.

For Tuesday, models are still in good agreement with another upper
level low dropping down the west coast. This will bring another
good chance of precipitation to the region along with reinforcing
the cooler temperatures over the region. This system does not have
as much moisture with it as the previous two systems, so do not
expect as much rain and snow. It also looks like the heaviest snow
will be only about 4 to 8 inches in the Sierra, mainly near and
just south of Yosemite. A winter weather advisory will likely be
necessary, but will hold off on that for now. Also, just as with
our recent systems, colder air aloft will setup the chance for
afternoon thunderstorms.

For Wednesday into Friday, the weather will continue to be unsettled
and cooler than average temperatures as the upper level low remains
entrenched across the western US. As a result, there will be
continued chances of precipitation across the Sierra Nevada with
just slight chances in the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County
mountains, but confidence in amounts and exact timing is low.
But, with the large scale trough across the area, there is high
confidence that high temperatures will remain below average
through at least Friday, although they will moderate somewhat.

As we head into Memorial Day weekend, models are advertising
another low dropping south from the British Columbia coast into
Washington and Oregon Saturday and into California Sunday. Models
are not yet in agreement on the timing and track with this system,
but signs are pointing to more precipitation next weekend as this
unusual cool and wet pattern continues.


MVFR conditions with areas of IFR ceilings will persist along
the west slopes of the Sierra and the north facing slopes of
the Tehachapi mountains until 19z today with improvement to
VFR in most areas by 21z. VFR conditions can be expected
elsewhere over the central California interior during the next
24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


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