Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 201056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
356 AM PDT Wed Mar 20 2019

A Pacific storm system will affect the region today through
Thursday. High pressure will build over the area Friday before
another weaker storm system moves across the region Saturday.


An upper disturbance moved through central CA overnight bringing
widespread precipitation. The heavier amounts in the SJ valley
were recorded towards Merced county and the Sierra Nevada. The
more widespread band of precipitation has moved north into N CA.
However another disturbance over the central coast will move
through the central valley this morning bringing another round of
precipitation. The main trough axis remains offshore with a mild
southerly flow and snow level near 6kft in central CA. Models
indicate unstable conditions for early this afternoon. The higher
cape values 600-800J/Kg are indicated along the sierra foothills
and east side of the valley. Thus expect scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Pressure gradients remain
weak so gusty wind should not be an issue. Snow level lowering
toward 5kft tonight as the trough axis moves through central CA
this evening. The higher resolution models indicate the higher
rain amounts around half inch towards the Mount Pinos area.
Otherwise rainfall a quarter to half inch in the Mountains and
scattered amounts of 1-2 tenths in the San Joaquin Valley.
Isolated showers will continue to be possible Thursday but
development will be mainly over the mountains and towards the
Bakersfield area with wind flow from the NW.

Any lingering showers over the mountains will diminish by
Thursday night as weak ridge enters the region.
Another storm moves through N and Central CA Friday night and
Saturday. This system quickly moves out of area Saturday night
leaving a warm and dry trend for Sunday. The weather pattern
remain active with yet another weather system moving across CA
during mid week. However model timing consensus remains poor with
this midweek system.


Wind gusts exceeding 35KT possible near the Tehachapi Mountain
passes and along the west side of the San Joaquin Valley thru 07Z
Wed. Increasing areas of mountain obscuring IFR in the Southern
Sierra Nevada after 03Z Wed and in the Tehachapi Mountains after 09Z
Wed. Local MVFR conditions in low clouds and showers in the San
Joaquin Valley and southern Sierra foothills after 18Z Wed. Isolated
thunderstorms possible after 18Z Wed. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail elsewhere across the Central CA Interior the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


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