Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 251842
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
242 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms to
western portions of the area this evening. These storms will
diminish as they more into east later this evening. A seasonally
warm and humid late- summer weather pattern will continue across
Central Pennsylvania into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HRRR runs show convection entering nw cwa this evening. A few of
these storms will be quite strong with frequent lightning...gusty
winds and brief heavy downpours accompanying them as the move
east and southeast. Convection will weaken after sunset with loss
of heating...somewhere close to Centre County and points north
south...likely not making it much further east. After convection
diminishes look for another warm and humid night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging will bring warm temperatures aloft to limit threat of
convection. Slight less surface moisture will make things feel more
comfortable though temperatures will once again top out well
above average.

Sfc high will build over the region Friday night, resulting in a
fair and mild night. Will have to watch for the possibility of
patchy valley fog over the northern mtns late.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Center of subtropical ridge over the southeast conus is progged
by all models to migrate northeast to the Mid Atlantic by this
weekend. Lg scale subsidence and warm temps aloft assoc with this
feature should translate to hot and humid conds with little
chance of rain across most of Central Pa. However, a shortwave
tracking across southern Ontario could trigger sct late day
shra/tsra on Sunday across northwest Pa.

00Z NAEFS and ECENS both strongly favor a continuation of well
abv normal temps into next week with mean 8h temps still btwn
18-20C. Weakening upper ridge is progged by mdls to slip southward
a bit, placing Pa within a more favorable regime for diurnal
convection on northern edge of upper ridge within plume of
anomalous PWATS. High humidity and warm nights appear likely into
next week, esp across southern Pa, where anomalous PWATs on the
order of +1SD indicated in the 00Z GEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered convection this evening across nw portion of area with
improving conditions late evening.

Outlook...

Fri...A.M. restrictions possible; becoming VFR. Isold thunderstorms
possible southern 1/4 airspace in the afternoon.

Sat...Patchy A.M. fog. Otherwise no sig wx expected.

Sun...Isold thunderstorms possible western 1/3 airspace in the
afternoon.

Mon...Isold-sct thunderstorms possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...Ross
SHORT TERM...Ross
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Ross/Steinbugl



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