Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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316
FXUS61 KCTP 140949
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
449 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TODAY...THEN OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT. A DEEPENING UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SPAWN A LOW PRES SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN PA ON TUESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN ALOFT WITH MUCH WARMER AIR FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
09Z WCHILLS RUNNING FROM ARND 20BLW ACROSS THE N MTNS TO BTWN
5-10BLW IN THE SOUTH. DON/T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE TO THESE NUMBERS
THRU 8AM...AS FALLING TEMPS SHOULD BE BALANCED BY DIMINISHING
WIND. WCHILL ADVY/WARN REMAIN IN PLACE THRU 16Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH FAIR AND
CONTINUED COLD WX TODAY WITH LIGHT WIND. DESPITE PT-MSUNNY
SKIES...TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO THE TEENS OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL PA THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH LESS BITTER THAN SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DEVELOPING WAA BTWN DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A BIT OF LGT SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVR
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SUN NIGHT.
HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW PWAT AIR ASSOC WITH DEPARTING ARCTIC AIR
MASS SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMS TO A DUSTING.

EARLY RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES OFF FAST THIS
EVENING...BUT RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT.

SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA MON MORNING WILL
LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A STEADIER SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE IN THE
DAY...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF POTENT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SOUTHERLY LL JET.
GEFS/SREF PTYPE PROBS SUGGEST SOME MIXING MAY WORK INTO THE S TIER
COUNTIES BY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MDL SPREAD CONTINUES TO NARROW...WITH MOST RUNS TRACKING SFC LOW
ACROSS EASTERN PA TUESDAY...SUPPORTING RAISING POPS TO NEAR 100
PCT LATE MONDAY-EARLY TUESDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PA. BULK OF
MDL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN EVENTUAL TURNOVER TO RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT
PERHAPS THE NW MTNS BY EARLY TUES AM. ENSEMBLE PLUMES AND WPC
GUIDANCE SUPPORT A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOW ACCUM BEFORE CHANGEOVER.
SFC HIGH PROGGED EAST OF NJ IS IN A POSITION UNFAVORABLE TO HOLD
LL COLD AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION PERIOD OF FZRA STILL
APPEARS QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL PA MON EVENING. WPC GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS MARGINAL WARNING CRITERIA FOR ICE ACCRETION OVR THE SC
MTNS. HOWEVER...SREF/GEFS PLUMES INDICATE SUCH ICE AMTS ARE FAR
FROM CERTAIN. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES
ATTM. MAIN EVENT DOESN/T UNFOLD UNTIL LATE MONDAY...SO STILL TIME
TO HONE FCST WITH BENEFIT OF LATER GUIDANCE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PA...GIVEN RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT POTENTIAL. LATEST MDL
ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BY TUES. WPC ALSO HAS HIGHLIGHTED SE
PA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY.

NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY LATER NEXT WEEK...AS
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AND A PSBL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST OF PA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR OVER CENTRAL PA AS W/NW FLOW CONTINUES. SPEEDS/GUSTS
GRADUALLY COMING DOWN OVER LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH GUSTINESS
COMING TO AN END IN MAJORITY OF LOCALES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

AS TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER 1035MB HIGH AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN
PARTS OF WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND KBFD-KJST...LAYER WILL
BECOME SO DRY THAT EVEN LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP STRATOCU AROUND BY SUNRISE.

WIDESPREAD VFR FOR SUNDAY /WITH LIGHTER WINDS/...BUT PERIOD OF
NICE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS CIG RESTRICTIONS SLIDE IN FROM
THE SW AGAIN STARTING SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM. SNOW
AND ASSORTED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT FLYING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED MAINLY VFR.

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP WITH SNOW DEVELOPING.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN
AND/OR SNOW IN THE SE. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS SET IN. LLWS POSS
SE.

WED...ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH KEEPING RESTRICTIONS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW...ESP OVER THE WEST.

THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
037-041-042.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR



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