Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 241155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
655 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

Seasonably cold weather expected through midweek with scattered
snow showers and flurries over parts of the Alleghenies. Another
mild spell will begin on Friday and last through the majority
of the weekend. Precipitation is likely on Sunday with rain
possibly ending as snow in some areas as colder air returns to
start the last week of January.


Increased cloud cover and wind gusts for the first part of today
based on satellite trends and persistent cold air advection.
Watch out for a few slick spots.

Scattered snow showers will continue to be focused over the
higher terrain along the western Alleghenies with a fresh
coating to 1" accumulation expected through tonight. Shortwave
trough progged to swing east from the TN Valley across the
Central Appalachians may enhance snow showers over the Laurel
Highlands into WV/MD panhandle early tonight. Not much to speak
of elsewhere with a few flurries and brisk wind adding to the
seasonable chill.


A north-south oriented ridge of high pressure will end
orographic snow showers early Thursday and provide dry weather
through late week. After a chilly day on Thursday, expect
temperatures to start another mild trend into the weekend as
southerly flow directs milder air back into the area.


Individual deterministic model solutions continue to differ
surrounding the timing and amplitude of the upper trough and
associated low pressure/surface front expected to impact the
area later in the weekend. The GFS remains a faster and weaker
solution at 500mb, while the ECMWF and especially CMC are on the
slower/amplified side of the spread with surface low
development over the Mid Atlantic.

A period of rain is a good bet sometime this weekend on the
front-side of the system, with the mostly likely timing being
Saturday night into Sunday. Questions concerning possible p-type
transition and winter wx threats on the backside of the system
are still not resolved.

Following another mild spell with above average temperatures
Fri-Sun, a shot of cold air is expected to bring temperatures
back to climo averages to close out the month.


The cold front has moved off the coast and we are in the cold
gusty westerly flow behind it.

 Weak bands of light snow continue through the mountains of
central PA, however no IFR cigs/vsbys are expected. Gusty winds
will continue into Wednesday with scattered snow showers mainly
over the usual higher elevations of the west and north where
MVFR ceilings will be common, and with visibilities occasionally
sub VFR in the passing snow showers. Central and eastern
terminals will see ceilings in the 2500-5000` range so high end
MVFR is possible at times.

High pressure will move in later Wednesday with most terminals
becoming or remaining VFR.


Thu-Sat AM...No sig wx expected.

Sat PM-Sun...MVFR poss in SHRA.


Minor flooding ongoing on the Swatara Creek at Harper Tavern and
Hershey with both points at or near crest. Some small streams
and creeks (Lower Mainstem Susq tributaries) are running high
such as the West Conewago Creek near Manchester following a
quick 1-2 inches of rain early Tuesday morning.

The flood watch for York and Lancaster Counties remains in
effect through Thursday afternoon due to lingering concerns
surrounding minor flood/ice jam potential along and near the
Susquehanna River between York Haven and Safe Harbor.

Dry weather is expected in the Lower Susquehanna Valley through
Saturday with a gradual warming trend into the weekend.


Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for PAZ065-066.


NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...La Corte/Ceru
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