Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 291601
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1201 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING SUNSHINE TODAY...WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLYVANIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY. A SLOW MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BRINGING SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
RESPONDING TO THE MARCH SUN AS PREDICTED. SO IT WILL FEEL MILDER
THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

RIDGE IS FCST TO SLIDE TO THE SE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. USING
SATELLITE TO TIME THE HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD IN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE AFTER 21Z. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS MY WESTERN HIGHLANDS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW. ENSEMBLE QPF OF .20" OR
LESS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS BEING MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH. WARM SKIN TEMPS FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE OF DEG EITHER SIDE OF
30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR SERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY
WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE USUAL POST FRONTAL STRATOCU CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT USUALLY FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NW WILL RUN SOME 10-15DEG BELOW NORMAL.
MILDER READINGS OVER THE SE WILL ACTUALLY BE NOT TOO FAR FROM
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED IN QUICK SUCCESSION BY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL
HAVE VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE NAM
BEING STRONGEST AND FURTHEST NORTH...AND THE ECMWF BEING WEAKEST
AND MOST SOUTH. I USED A BLEND OF MODEL POPS AND GEFS/SREF 850
TEMPS TO CONFINE SNOW CHANCES TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80. I ALSO
DOWNPLAYED SNOW ACCUMS A BIT GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH PRECIP TO SPEAK OF AT ALL.

NAEFSBC CONTINUES TO SHOW A BREAK DOWN IN THE EXTREME COLD PATTERN
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...ERODING THE WRN NOAM RIDGE AND EVEN
SHOWING A BRIEF SURGE IN UPPER HEIGHTS AND TEMPS OVER THE NERN US
ALONG ABOUT THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
PASS LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE PARENT UPPER LOW IS MADE TO
REMAIN OVER HUDSON`S BAY AND EVEN DROPS SOUTH IN
TIME...REINFORCING THE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN US BY WEEKS END.
THIS WOULD FAVOR A RETURN OF TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT THE EXTREME COLD WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE FOR 12Z TAFS WAS TO ADD A LINE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SITES. ALREADY HAD SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WEST.

A DECENT DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE. LOOKING AT SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT...AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
MOVES SE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA.

A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST.

SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUE INTO EARLY WED...AS
LOW DROPS SE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF CANADA.

OUTLOOK...

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF
WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THUR AFTERNOON-NIGHT...A GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MVFR WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WATSON
NEAR TERM...WATSON/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...MARTIN


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