882
AXNT20 KNHC 031709
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jun 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba:
A persistent upper-level trough over the western Caribbean will
sustain a diffluent pattern aloft across the area through Friday.
This will support the generation of strong showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous lightning, heavy
rain, and gusty winds through Friday. The heavy rain may lead to
flash flooding and mudslides. Flooding is also possible in areas
of Hispaniola where the ground remains saturated from recent heavy
rain events. According to the most recent models, Tue afternoon
and Thu afternoon will be the days with the most significant
precipitation over north-central Dominican Republic and NE Haiti.
There are also indications that significant rainfall could occur
over eastern Cuba and the Cayman Islands where abundant moisture
will remain in place. Please refer to products from your local
weather service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 21W from 11N
southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is limited
near the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 11N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection remains minimal.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 12N southward,
and moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
mainly behind the wave axis covering the waters from 05N to 10N
between 40W and 50W, and from 06N to 12N between 50W and 54W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from 19N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. the wave appears to enhance
convection over eastern Dominican Republic and western Venezuela.


A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 21N southward,
and is quasi-stationary due to interaction with an upper-level
trough. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is near the
southern end of the wave axis over the SW Caribbean, and this
convective activity is affecting the coasts of southern Nicaragua,
Costa Rica and western Panama. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted on the east side of the wave axis from 16N to 18N
between 78W and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the border of Sierra
Leone and Guinea, then continues westward to 07N20W. An ITCZ
extends from 07N20W to 06N32W, then from 06N35W to 07N48W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is present from 03N to 08N between 08W and
33W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters off
the Panama coast to northern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters anchored by
a 1018 mb high pressure located over the Carolinas. This system
is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in
the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 2 to
4 ft seas in the eastern Gulf. Haze due to agricultural fires over
Central America and Mexico continues across the western Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche, reducing visibility to around 3 nm
at times. Recent smoke graphic from NESDI indicates medium
concentration of smoke over SE Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula and
the western Gulf of Mexico S of 27N.

For the forecast, the west Atlantic ridge extends W-SW into the
eastern Gulf, and will dominate the basin through the next several
days. This pattern will support generally moderate to fresh E to
SE winds in the western Gulf, and near the Yucatan Peninsula to
occasionally strong, and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern
Gulf. By the end of the week, the ridge will weaken, allowing for
winds to diminish somewhat. Hazy conditions due to agricultural
fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for the next
couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times,
mainly over the western half of the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
a heavy rainfall event. A couple of tropical waves are moving
westward across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see the Tropical Wave
section above.

A 1023 mb high is centered just SE of Bermuda. The pressure gradient
between this system and the Colombian low supports moderate to
fresh E to SE winds across the east and central Caribbean with
seas of 4 to 6 ft, and gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 2 to
4 ft elsewhere, except light winds in the NW part of the basin,
particularly N of 18N and W of 82W. Convection continues to
flare-up over parts of Hispaniola, between Haiti and Jamaica, within
about 90 nm SW of Jamaica, and over eastern Cuba. Showers carried
by SE winds are noted over the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will
support fresh to strong trade winds across the east-central
Caribbean through early Tue, with seas to near 8 ft. An upper-
level trough from the W Atlantic to the NW Caribbean will continue
to support active thunderstorms across north-central portions,
and gradually shift across the NE Caribbean Tue through Thu. Fresh
trade winds will return to southeast portions of the basin Thu
night through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N45W and continues
SW to near 26N55W where it becomes stationary extending westward
along 25N/26N to near 26N72W. Recent scatterometer data indicate
the wind shift associated with the cold front as well as moderate
to locally fresh winds on either side of it. Similar wind speeds
with 5 to 7 ft are seen N of the stationary front to about 29N. A
surface trough is also present in this area and extends over the
Turks and Caicos Islands into the Windward Passage. A large area
of scattered moderate convection is observed from 19N to 28N
between 60W and 72W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to
induce this convective activity. Scattered showers with embedded
thunderstorms are noted near SE Florida, and between the central
Bahamas and Cuba. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
Atlantic forecast region, with a 1023 mb high center just SE of
Bermuda, and another 1022 mb center near 27N33W. Under the
influence of the latter high pressure, light to gentle anticyclonic
flow prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh
trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are across the tropical Atlantic.
Gentle to locally moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail across
the remainder of the open tropical Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned stationary front
will meander and weaken into a surface trough by tonight. A deep-
layered upper trough across the W Atlantic and into the NW
Caribbean will shift eastward across the area through Thu, and
maintain active thunderstorms E of 72W today that will shift E and
NE through Thu. The interaction of the upper trough and the
stationary front is expected to create elongated low pressure
across NE portions on Tue, and shift NE and out of the area on
Wed. Fresh to strong SW winds are forecast ahead of this
trough/low as it moves across these waters. Weak high pressure
will build across the basin Thu through Fri night.

$$
GR