096
FXUS65 KABQ 230934
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
334 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 334 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Several days of very dry weather, breezy to windy conditions,
and elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected
through Memorial Day Weekend. Winds will be stronger today compared
to the last few days then taper a bit Friday before the strongest
winds of the week arrive Saturday afternoon. Wind gusts of up to 50
mph are possible across the northeast highlands and east central
plains. Winds finally lighten up and temperatures heat up beginning
Memorial Day as high pressure builds overhead. Surface moisture
increases across eastern areas Memorial Day, but more so Tuesday and
Wednesday and this could help result in the development of a few
storms near the Texas border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Swift flow aloft and a ~991 mb surface low in southeast CO will
cause west and southwest surface winds to become breezy to windy
today, with the strongest gusts reaching up to 45 mph over northeast
areas. Humidities will be very low as well with widespread critical
fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande Valley eastward,
and from the central highlands eastward, this afternoon and early
evening. High temperatures will also climb a few to 9 degrees over
eastern areas this afternoon compared to Wednesday`s readings.
Tonight, a backdoor front will sag into the eastern plains, but this
front is forecast to back out of the northeast highlands quickly on
Friday, with the potential for another round of critical fire
weather conditions there in the afternoon.  Elsewhere, winds are
forecast to weaken fairly significantly on Friday from today`s
speeds as the flow aloft weakens and the surface trough in the lee
of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains weakens. In the wake of the
backdoor front, high temperatures are forecast to fall a few to
around 8 degrees across much of the northeast and east central
plains on Friday compared to today`s readings. Some models depict
enough elevated moisture for gusty virga showers Friday afternoon in
the northern Sangre de Cristo mountains and far northeast highlands
near the CO border.  Erratic wind gusts could reach up to 45 mph
given the inverted V profiles expected, and the brisk flow aloft
expected over that part of NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

The strongest winds of the week are anticipated Saturday to kick off
Memorial Day weekend. This will be due to a leading shortwave trough
moving across the northern Rockies with 40 to 50 kt 500 to 700 mb
level winds at the base of the shortwave trough. The trough will
help induce the development of a 993 mb surface lee low across
southeast CO/northeast NM tightening the surface pressure gradient
across eastern NM. Wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph will be common across
the region Saturday afternoon and early evening with even stronger
gusts around 50 mph across the Sangre de Cristo mountains and
northeast highlands and plains due to being in the vicinity of the
aforementioned surface lee low. It will be very dry with dewpoints
in the teens to low twenties and relative humidity values in the
single digits to low teens likely resulting in critical fire weather
conditions for almost all areas of the state. That lead shortwave
moves into the Great Plains Sunday, but a trailing shortwave trough
will be quick on its heels moving across the northern Rockies. The
operational GFS and ensembles continue to be a little more amplified
with this trail shortwave compared to the operational ECMWF and its
ensembles, and thus has slightly stronger northwest winds compared
to the ECMWF. Winds on Sunday do look lighter compared to Saturday,
but critical fire weather conditions still look possible across
eastern NM due to above average temperatures and low relative
humidity values.

Much lighter winds look to finally arrive Memorial Day as upper level
ridging builds over the state. Temperatures also begin to increase
across western and central NM due to the higher upper level heights
with Albuquerque possibly seeing its first 90 degree day of the
year on Tuesday and Farmington getting into the upper 80s. Surface
moisture also increases a bit across the eastern plains Sunday night
into Monday due to a backdoor front entering that part of the state.
Now, you`re probably asking if any chance of precipitation is on the
horizon? The answer is possibly for just eastern NM. Gulf moisture
tries to make it into the eastern plains Monday night into Tuesday
morning increasing dewpoints into the low 40s based on the ensemble
clusters. Problem is the upper ridge will remain overhead (lack of
lifting mechanism) and the weak westerly flow will try to mix the
moisture back east into Texas. If the moisture does not mix out as
quickly a drier shower/storm could pop near the Texas border before
exiting east. More Gulf moisture indicated by dewpoints in the 50s
based on ensemble clusters could enter the eastern plains Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. The problem is the upper ridge looks
to flatten on Wednesday due to a weak shortwave trough entering the
Pacific NW. This makes the mid to upper level flow more westerly
pushing drier continental air from the west and mixing the moisture
east. Both the GFS and ECMWF have the dryline setting up in far west
Texas with storm initiation along and east of it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Gusty, west and southwest, afternoon winds will be the main
weather concern the next 24 hours. A few smoke plumes over the
west central and northern mountains will become well developed in
the afternoon, when winds will be the strongest. An especially
well developed smoke plume is forecast to cross northwest and
north central NM from the Flagstaff, AZ area. See the HRRR Model`s
SW US smoke trajectories at https://shorturl.at/RBp7C .

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND EASTERN NM THURSDAY, NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS FRIDAY, THEN
AREAWIDE SATURDAY, AND MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY...

A fire growing pattern will commence today through Sunday with
critical fire weather conditions expected each day as an active
storm track develops over the northern and central Rockies. With a
~991 mb surface low in southeast CO, the strongest winds today are
forecast from the upper Rio Grande Valley eastward, and from the
central highlands eastward. Locally critical fire weather conditions
are also forecast over western areas this afternoon.  A backdoor
front will introduce some moisture and cooler temperatures to
eastern areas tonight and Friday, but this front is forecast to
retreat from the northeast highlands quickly enough Friday morning
for another round of critical fire weather conditions there on
Friday afternoon until sunset.  Other zones will have weak enough
winds for a reprieve from critical conditions Friday, except for
another round of locally critical conditions in the Gallup area and
in the northwest mountains.  West and southwest winds will
strengthen areawide on Saturday with widespread critical fire
weather conditions expected as humidities remain very low. Winds are
forecast to weaken over west central and southwest areas Sunday,
while remaining strong enough for at least locally critical fire
weather conditions farther northern, and a for another round of
widespread critical fire weather conditions along and east of the
central mountain chain. Winds will weaken areawide on Monday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  80  44  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  75  34  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  74  41  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  76  37  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  72  39  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  78  38  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  76  40  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  79  48  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  74  43  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  80  35  82  37 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  83  51  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  68  35  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  74  49  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  73  46  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  68  44  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  65  37  67  36 /   0   0  10   0
Angel Fire......................  67  34  68  34 /   0   0  10   0
Taos............................  75  38  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  73  42  74  44 /   0   0   5   0
Espanola........................  82  46  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  76  48  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  79  46  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  82  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  84  51  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  86  51  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  84  52  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  86  48  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  85  52  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  86  49  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  85  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  86  49  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  80  52  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  84  52  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  90  52  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  74  49  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  78  48  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  78  45  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  80  44  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  75  44  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  79  45  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  78  45  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  82  52  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  75  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  76  39  71  44 /   0   0  10   0
Raton...........................  79  40  77  43 /   0   0  10   0
Springer........................  80  42  77  45 /   0   0   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  76  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  85  48  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  81  46  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  87  49  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  84  50  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  89  49  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  90  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  91  54  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  89  54  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  96  58  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  86  53  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  84  52  87  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ104-121>123-125-126.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for NMZ123.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...44