Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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338 FXUS65 KABQ 232048 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 248 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 207 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 Dry and windy conditions will persist through Memorial Day weekend. The driest and windiest day looks to be Saturday resulting in rapid fire growth for any fires that do start or the ongoing fires that break containment. Wind gusts on Saturday certainly could exceed 50 mph in some areas especially in the higher terrain of New Mexico and the eastern plains. Areas of blowing dust will likely result from the gusty winds with some lower visibility. While many people will want to camp, hike or engage in outdoor activities this weekend, it is best not to do anything with a flame or spark that could get out of control. Precipitation chances remain low for much of the forecast but there might be an increase in moisture over eastern New Mexico for the middle of next week that will support a few storms. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 207 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 A dry and breezy to windy weather pattern remains over NM this afternoon. The ABQ 12Z morning sounding sported very dry conditions through the column with a low 0.17" PWAT being measured. WV imagery also shows a nice dry slot embedded within the mid to upper level westerly flow over NM. This is all situated south of a 548dm H5 low spinning over north-central WY that is forecast to move eastward over the northern Great Plains tonight into Friday. Winds will decouple tonight, lessening at lower elevations and staying breezy to windy at ridgetops overnight. The aforementioned upper low will send down a dry frontal boundary into northeastern NM, providing a northeasterly and easterly wind shift plus a relative influx of moisture. Unfortunately quasi-zonal flow aloft will bring a return of westerly to southwesterly winds that will push this boundary back toward TX, OK and CO. Another dry and breezy day will result most areas. Only far northeastern NM will hold onto to the higher humidity. Winds lessen Friday night again before stronger westerly to southwesterly winds return Saturday to start the long term period. Active wildfires in AZ and northern NM are also producing notable smoke plumes which are very evident on satellite imagery. Some of this smoke is settling down to near ground level overnight over parts of northern and central NM producing haze. This is likely to happen again tonight and Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 207 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 Overall there are not a lot of changes in the forecast from the last few updates. Saturday continues to look like a bad day for winds and fire weather concerns. A trough drops south from Alaska and swings across the Rockies on Saturday. At the same time there is a fairly strong/active sub-tropical jet that develops over NM. The coupled jet structure will support some strong jet stream winds. With some deep mixing it looks like 50 mph wind gusts will be a decent probability for areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mtns, central mountains and Sacramento Mtns. Tomorrow will be the best time to evaluate for any high wind watches/advisories going into the weekend. Blowing dust from White Sands and other source regions could be an issue. There are at least 2-3 fires in the state that will need monitoring much like today. It cannot be stressed enough that people engaging in outdoor activities this holiday weekend need to be careful with any kind of open flame. In the end really just not a good idea for camp fires or open grilling. It is just not worth the risk. Westerly winds aloft remain over much of the region on Sunday as another trough moves across the northern Rockies ahead of subsequent ridging. Fire weather concerns shift to eastern NM on Sunday but winds are not expected to be as strong. The real problem is that humidity levels just do not recover much at all over the weekend and into early next week. That means min RH in the afternoon go from 5 percent maybe up to 20 to 30 percent at night which is still quite dry. If winds were to stay high overnight then we would need to look at extending red flag warnings to the overnight which has not been done very much. The point being is that it will remain dry for much of the state. Precipitation chances may get back into the forecast for the northeast part of the state Tuesday through Thursday. Moisture return after a weak backdoor front on Monday does increase Tuesday into Wednesday. GFS is quite optimistic with thunderstorm chances Wednesday into Thursday as a result with the ECMWF not as much. This part of the forecast really hinges on the evolution of other fronts pushing down the plains and stalling with moisture return set ups. Confidence remains on the low side with these kinds of patterns knowing any amount of convection and MCS development in the plains could alter frontal timing. Lastly as ridging does take hold over much of the area Tuesday into Wednesday temperatures will be on the rise. High temperatures will get into the 90s for much of E NM with that potential increasing for the RGV and ABQ metro on both Tue/Wed. For context, the average first 90 degree day in ABQ is around May 27 with the earliest occurring May 3. 39 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 207 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR prevails with increasing southwesterly winds most areas this afternoon. Peak gusts of 25 to 35 kts will focus through the highlands with later onset time of breezy to windy conditions in more protected valley locations like KABQ or KROW. Winds taper off this evening with a return to southwesterly winds by the end of the TAF period at 18Z Friday. There will also be isolated LLWS concerns along and just east of the ridgeline along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This will include the KAXX terminal, and perhaps KLVS and KRTN. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN NM TODAY, NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND WEST-CENTRAL NM FRIDAY, THEN AREAWIDE SATURDAY, AND MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY... A persistent warm, dry and windy weather pattern will support fire growth and rapid fire spread each day through the Memorial Day Weekend, with winds finally letting up on Memorial Day Monday. Dry westerly flow aloft will continue over NM, with stronger winds mixing down to the surface each afternoon and tapering off each night. Friday`s winds will be slightly less than what has been observed today, strengthening again Saturday allowing for widespread critical fire weather conditions, then lessening some Sunday. High Haines and Haines6 will also be present allowing for active smoke plumes to develop each afternoon as well. Afternoon humidity falling to near or below ten percent many areas will only see poor to fair recoveries at night. The main exception of note will be a weak frontal boundary backing into northeastern and east-central NM tonight into Friday morning bringing a northeasterly to easterly wind shift. But even this airmass will be pushed back toward TX/OK/CO Friday afternoon. We could see some erratic gusty winds emanating from convection over the CO Rockies spread southward into northern NM Saturday afternoon/evening. A ridge moves over NM by Monday, accompanied by a backdoor cold front pushing through eastern NM bringing replenishing moisture in the form of higher humidity and better recoveries. Winds lessen by this point as well, lowering the threat of critical fire weather. Indications are fair that this increased moisture will spread further over eastern NM by the end of the month, increasing the chances for afternoon thunderstorms along and east of the central mountain chain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 43 79 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 35 75 38 72 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 41 76 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 37 78 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 40 74 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 38 79 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 40 79 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 48 80 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 43 76 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 36 81 40 78 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 51 85 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 35 69 38 65 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 50 75 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 47 74 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 43 69 46 66 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 38 66 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 33 68 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 38 75 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 43 74 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 47 82 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 48 76 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 46 79 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 83 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 85 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 51 87 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 53 85 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 48 87 49 87 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 52 86 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 48 87 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 53 86 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 50 87 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 52 81 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 52 85 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 51 89 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 75 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 48 79 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 46 79 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 46 76 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 46 78 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 46 78 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 51 83 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 51 76 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 39 71 43 75 / 0 5 0 0 Raton........................... 40 76 42 79 / 0 5 0 0 Springer........................ 43 78 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 45 76 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 47 76 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 46 76 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 50 85 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 51 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 50 85 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 54 87 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 54 89 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 54 87 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 59 94 59 97 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 54 88 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 51 87 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-121>123- 125-126. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for NMZ123. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....39 AVIATION...24