Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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826 FXUS65 KABQ 212333 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 533 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 A prolonged period of very dry, warm, and windy conditions will prevail over the region with dangerous fire weather possible on several days. Humidity values each afternoon will fall to between 8 and 13% through this weekend with wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph common just about every day. Temperatures will also be very warm with the lower elevations of the Rio Grande Valley and much of eastern NM in the upper 80s to 90s. The strongest winds are possible on Saturday when gusts may exceed 50 mph for parts of the region. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 An upper level trough moving east across the central/southern Rockies is steering stronger westerly winds aloft over the state and with daytime mixing is producing breezy to windy conditions across the area. High temperatures this afternoon will be several degrees less than yesterday`s given a slight change in airmass that took place last night. The trough will eject out of the Rockies this evening and push a backdoor front down the eastern plains through Wednesday morning. Gusty northerly winds will be common behind the front overnight, with speeds hitting up to between 30-40mph. The front is forecast to progress southwest to the central mountain chain Wednesday morning and bring a brief gusty east canyon wind into the middle RGV after sunrise, but well below advisory threshold. The backdoor front will bring a few degrees of relative cooling to the eastern plains for Wednesday, but the rest of the area will be a degree or two warmer and generally within a few degrees of normal. Deep layer mixing of moderate west-southwest winds aloft will bring breezy to locally windy conditions to central and wester NM Wednesday afternoon/evening. Westerly winds aloft will trend up some Wednesday night ahead of an upstream trough moving east toward the central Rockies. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 A shortwave trough will shift east Thursday then fast zonal flow dominates the medium and long-term forecast with very dry, warm, and breezy to windy conditions on most days. A 110kt speed max moving over the area Thursday will create widespread west winds with gusts up to 45 mph possible over eastern NM. A weak cold front will slide into eastern NM Thursday night then wash out Friday with gusty southwest winds again by the afternoon. Breezy winds will persist over western NM. The next upper trough will race thru the central Rockies Saturday with a 115 kt speed max centered over NM. This will lead to another day of widespread west winds with gusts in excess of 50 mph possible for parts of the area, mainly eastern NM. Winds will trend lighter on Sunday but still with widespread breezy conditions. Another weak cold front is expected to slide into eastern NM Sunday night. Relief from the stronger winds may begin Monday as upper level ridging attempts to build northward over NM. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 457 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 Brisk winds will continue until an hour or so after sunset. A weak and dry backdoor cold front will push south through the northeast plains after 22/04Z. This front is primarily a wind shift and with little moisture to work with, only brief, patchy MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible along and near the Bartlett/Johnson Mesa near Raton Pass around sunrise Wednesday. A brief and relatively light to moderate east wind at KABQ is forecast to develop around 22/12Z. Gusts up to 30 kt are possible through Wednesday morning before shifting to the southwest during the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 A backdoor front will progress southwest down the eastern plains to the central mountain chain overnight and provide a brief bump in humidity and slightly cooler temperatures going into Wednesday, while western and portions of central NM remain warm, very dry and unstable. An upper level trough will move east across the central Rockies and steer stronger winds aloft over the area on Thursday, which will result in breezy to windy and gusty conditions by afternoon given deep layer mixing. Critical fire weather conditions are possible across western/central NM Thursday afternoon, but need wind speeds to trend up a tad more from current forecast before issuing a watch/warning. Less wind on Friday behind the departing trough, but a big ramp up in critical fire weather conditions is forecast Saturday as stronger winds aloft associated with a shortwave trough move directly overhead. Less wind behind the departing trough on Sunday, but very dry conditions persist with at least some potential to exceed critical threshold on wind speeds. Expect a downtrend in wind speeds early next week as an upper level ridge amplifies over the region. Will monitor trends in ERCs for east central and northeast NM going forward, but current values do not support inclusion in any watches/warnings going through at least this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 38 78 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 30 73 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 37 74 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 32 75 37 77 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 36 72 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 32 76 38 78 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 38 76 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 80 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 40 75 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 35 78 39 80 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 50 82 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 30 67 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 45 73 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 40 72 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 35 67 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 30 61 35 66 / 0 0 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 28 66 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 32 72 37 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 36 70 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 42 79 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 45 75 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 78 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 52 81 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 82 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 85 49 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 49 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 46 86 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 48 83 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 46 85 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 48 83 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 46 85 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 48 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 49 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 51 88 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 45 74 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 46 77 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 42 78 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 37 79 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 40 74 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 44 77 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 43 78 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 53 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 48 74 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 39 70 43 76 / 0 10 10 0 Raton........................... 39 74 41 80 / 0 5 5 0 Springer........................ 40 76 41 81 / 0 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 38 72 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 46 74 50 85 / 0 5 5 0 Roy............................. 44 72 46 81 / 0 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 50 80 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 49 79 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 49 80 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 51 79 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 51 81 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 51 82 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 60 90 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 53 82 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 51 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...33