Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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721 FXUS65 KABQ 202330 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 530 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024 A mostly dry and breezy to windy weather pattern will remain in place over New Mexico for the next several days. Temperatures will be warmest today, especially in southeastern areas of the state where locations such as Roswell will once again flirt with 100 degrees for a high temperatures. Temperatures will cool a few degrees on Tuesday across all of northern and central New Mexico, and then eastern areas will observe additional cooling into Wednesday. Through the end of the week and into the weekend, temperatures will rebound in the east some with all areas staying within a few degrees of normal for late May. The repeated gusty winds and low humidity in the afternoons could lead to areas of rapid fire spread. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024 The Pacific low has opened up and is currently a shortwave trough moving northeast into AZ per the latest water vapor satellite imagery, while a northern stream trough progresses east from the Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Increasing southwest flow over the area along with a deepening lee side trough is bringing breezy to windy conditions this afternoon. Winds are forecast to continue to increase into the early evening hours and be helped by an area of virga, currently over AZ and forecast to pivot over western NM through 06Z. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 02Z across western and northwest portions of the area where gusts to between 50-55mph will be common through 03Z. Stronger westerly winds will shift east through central NM this evening, bringing gusty winds through the RGV and out into the highlands. Showers will briefly trend up over the northern mountains this evening may even get a lightning strike or two given added forcing associated with the northern stream trough approaching. Less wind and a little cooling expected on Tuesday with a slight change in airmass overnight, but breezy/gusty conditions are still forecast by mid/late afternoon. A backdoor front will bring a wind shift and some higher surface dewpoint temperatures to northeast and east central NM late Tuesday night along with some low stratus between Raton Pass and Clayton. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024 The backdoor front will wash out over the eastern plains of NM by midday Wednesday with daytime temperatures there generally running 3 to 8 degrees below normal (similar to most remaining zones). Into the afternoon, a surface trough will begin to become established just east of the central mountain chain, but will not have had much time to deepen. Consequently, wind speeds will be a bit reduced with generally 15-25 kt of 700 mb flow that could be occasionally mixed down to the surface within highland and south central zones. Sufficient mid level moisture could be present over north central areas for some virga and/or sprinkles and gusty winds late in the day. The 700 mb flow increases slightly into Thursday to 20-30 kt, and the lee-side surface trough will deepen over eastern CO and northeastern NM. This will lead to stronger surface gusts with all areas gaining a couple to a few degrees of warming, especially in the eastern areas that will observe the most downsloping. A weak backdoor front will make a brief appearance in northeastern zones Thursday night into Friday morning, but this should retreat with yet another lee-side surface trough redeveloping Friday afternoon. All-in-all, this front is not expected to have much impact, only reducing temperatures in northeastern zones slightly, and the afternoon surface trough will allow winds to quickly veer southwesterly and turn a bit gusty again. The front may make a second attempt to infiltrate northeastern NM Friday night into Saturday morning, but again shouldn`t advance very far unless convection in eastern CO really outdoes current modeling and a stronger mesohigh develops. Into the weekend, a shortwave trough will round southern CA and enter CO on Saturday. This feature does not look to bring in much Pacific moisture, but could produce decent coverage of showers and storms over CO where the wave will meet up with deeper boundary layer moisture from aforementioned fronts. For the bulk of NM, this moisture will stay too far to the north with gusty dry conditions redeveloping, not only Saturday afternoon but also Sunday. The next backdoor front intrusion looks to possibly overtake eastern NM Sunday night into Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024 As two upper troughs partially phase with one another over CO tonight, strong west-southwest winds over NM will continue into tonight. Additionally, expect the development and lowering of VFR ceilings this evening in central and western NM as Pacific moisture increases in advance of the upper troughs. A line of virga showers will continue in western NM through early evening, possibly resulting in wind gusts up to 60 kt at KGUP and KGNT. Westerly winds will weaken overnight, but increase relatively fast during the late morning Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM THROUGH THIS EVENING... Critical fire weather conditions are developing across western and portions of central NM currently and will persist into the evening hours as stronger westerly winds progress east across the area. The main rule this week is still hot, dry and unstable conditions but with spotty critical fire weather conditions through Wednesday and then the potential for more widespread critical conditions toward the end of the work week with slightly increased westerly flow aloft. The driest conditions this week will be across southern portions of the area where many hours of single digit humidity are forecast. An upper level trough will move east over the region Saturday and bring stronger winds with the potential for more critical fire weather conditions. ERC percentiles are low across eastern portions of the area due to recent rainfall and associated greenup, but that could change toward the end of the work week and into the weekend after many days of drying. The 12Z medium range model solutions are advertising an upper level ridge shifting east across the Intermountain West from early to next week, so we`ll likely see a significant downtrend in wind speeds and the absence of critical fire weather conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 44 74 39 77 / 20 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 35 69 32 72 / 40 10 0 0 Cuba............................ 40 71 37 73 / 20 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 36 74 33 74 / 20 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 39 71 36 70 / 20 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 39 75 33 75 / 20 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 40 76 37 75 / 10 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 48 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 43 75 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 36 79 35 79 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 50 82 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 34 63 31 65 / 50 10 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 47 71 46 72 / 20 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 42 72 41 73 / 10 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 40 64 37 67 / 40 5 0 10 Red River....................... 33 58 31 62 / 40 5 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 34 61 28 66 / 40 0 0 10 Taos............................ 39 70 33 72 / 30 0 0 5 Mora............................ 42 69 37 69 / 20 0 0 10 Espanola........................ 47 78 44 79 / 20 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 46 73 46 74 / 20 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 46 76 41 78 / 20 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 79 52 80 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 81 50 81 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 51 83 46 83 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 80 49 81 / 10 0 0 0 Belen........................... 50 85 48 85 / 5 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 52 81 48 82 / 10 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 49 83 46 84 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 50 82 47 82 / 10 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 50 84 46 84 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 52 78 49 78 / 10 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 51 81 48 81 / 10 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 54 87 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 73 46 73 / 10 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 48 76 45 76 / 10 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 47 76 42 75 / 5 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 43 77 38 77 / 5 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 43 74 40 72 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 48 76 44 77 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 46 77 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 55 81 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 51 75 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 45 73 40 67 / 0 0 5 10 Raton........................... 44 77 40 72 / 5 0 5 10 Springer........................ 47 78 42 73 / 5 0 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 46 74 39 70 / 5 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 54 82 46 73 / 0 0 5 10 Roy............................. 50 79 44 71 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 56 87 50 79 / 5 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 55 85 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 56 89 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 58 89 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 58 89 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 57 89 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 64 95 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 56 87 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 55 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-106- 109-124. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-202-205-206. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...33