302
FXUS65 KABQ 260926
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
326 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Winds will trend down through early week, while temperatures
rise above normal areawide by Tuesday. The Albuquerque Sunport is
forecast to hit 90 degrees for the first time this year on
Tuesday, which is within a day of the climatological average.
Moisture will move into the eastern plains from the east on
Tuesday and will fuel a few strong to severe storms going into
early Tuesday evening. Outflow from those storms will likely
create gusty east canyon winds into the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday
night. Chances for storms will continue across much of northeast
NM and the eastern plains from Tuesday through the end of the work
week, while western NM remains hot and dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

A mellower weather pattern will take shape today as the flow aloft
continues to weaken in the wake of an upper level trough that
crossed on Saturday. Gusty conditions are forecast to linger from
northwest to east central areas today, except for windy conditions
with gusts up to 45 mph around Clines Corners this morning. Will
extend the Air Quality Advisor through this morning for Bonito Lake,
Alto, Ruidoso, Ruidoso Downs, and Hollywood, where northwest flow is
forecast by the HRRR and Blue Sky Models to carry smoke from the
Blue 2 Fire. The day shift will consider extending the Air Quality
Advisory through the afternoon and evening, and also consider
expanding it eastward down Highway 70 to the Roswell and Hagerman
area. Meanwhile, models agree less on how thick and how far smoke
from the Indios Fire near Gallinas Peak will spread this afternoon
with the HRRR being most aggressive. Given the persistently gusty
northwest flow that is forecast for today, there is a good chance
that the smoke plume will be noted aloft as far southeast as
Espanola, Las Vegas, and Tucumcari by late this afternoon and
evening. A backdoor front sagging southward through the eastern
plains may then spread some of this smoke southward over the Fort
Sumner, Clovis, and Portales area during the late night hours.

High temperatures this afternoon should vary from a few to around 7
degrees below 1991-2020 averages over central and western areas, and
as much as 5 degrees above the averages on the eastern plains.  A
ridge of high pressure will then build over the forecast area on
Monday allowing high temperatures to climb around 7 degrees over
today`s readings. In addition, winds will continue to weaken while
shifting out of the southwest most places.  Smoke plumes should be
less vigorously developed on Monday, but they may extend eastward
during the afternoon and evening enough to impact Espanola, Taos,
Mora, and the Route 70 corridor from Ruidoso through Chaves County,
as well as southern Roosevelt County.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Chances for virga and strong/erratic wind gusts will continue into
Monday evening across far northeast NM near the CO border before
the loss of daytime heating. An upper level ridge will continue to
pump up over the region Tuesday bringing even warmer temperatures,
with the Albuquerque Sunport forecast to hit 90 degrees for the
first time this year. This first 90 degree day for Albuquerque
would be one day later than the climatological mean. A weak
backdoor front aided by convective outflow will push west into
the eastern plains Monday evening to near the central mountain
chain by Tuesday morning, bringing sufficient low level moisture
to fuel a round of late day storms across the eastern plains with
the best chances closer to the OK and TX borders. The NAM is
advertising impressive instability and shear Tuesday afternoon, so
don`t be surprised to see a storm or two become severe and
produce large hail and/or damaging winds. Convective outflow will
result in a gusty east canyon wind into the RGV Tuesday night,
bringing low level moisture west to near the Continental Divide.
However, the moisture layer will be very shallow and is forecast
to mix-out Wednesday with a dryline sharpening up east of the
central mountain chain, where another round of strong to severe
storms is possible. An upper level trough moving east from the
Pacific NW to the northern/central Rockies will steer slightly
stronger winds aloft across the southern Rockies and northern NM
Thu/Fri, providing increased shear and the continued potential for
strong to severe storms given sufficient low level moisture
sloshing back to the west each night followed by a resharpening of
the dryline.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

At many TAF sites, wind gusts will persist for another few hours
as the flow aloft gradually weakens. Then, low level wind shear
is forecast along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains through the predawn and early morning hours, including
KAXX, KRTN, and KLVS. West and northwest winds will be breezy on
Sunday, but not nearly as strong as Saturday`s winds in most
locations. Smoke will billow this afternoon with well-developed
plumes stretching southeastward through the evening from the
Indios Fire near Gallinas Peak and Blue 2 Fire in the northern
Sacramento Mountains. Smoke is likely to impact ceilings and
visibilities at KSRR and KROW, and potentially also KLVS and KTCC.
See the HRRR Models Vertically Integrated Smoke Loop (all of the
smoke in a vertical column, including smoke high in the
atmosphere) here: https://shorturl.at/4om95.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

West and northwest winds will be significantly weaker today, but it
will still be very dry.  Winds should weaken enough by afternoon to
cancel the Fire Weather Watch that was in effect for the Central
Highlands. Locally critical fire weather conditions are still
expected for several hours around Clines Corners, and only for an
hour or two further east around Santa Rosa. The weather pattern will
shift during the first half of the coming weak as a couple backdoor
fronts and some southeasterly return flow bring higher humidities
mainly to the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, northeast and far east
central areas. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms
in these areas Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons and evenings, but
wetting footprints will be small along the western edge of the
moisture with a risk of new fire starts from dry thunderstorms
producing dry microbursts in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.  With
an upper level trough passing north of New Mexico, some of this
moisture will probably scour eastward in afternoon mixing Friday and
Saturday only to slosh back westward across northeast and far east
central areas during the overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  77  45  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  75  34  80  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  72  42  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  77  39  83  39 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  72  42  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  78  40  83  41 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  75  42  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  79  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  75  45  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  83  39  86  40 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  86  54  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  69  36  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  73  50  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  74  48  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  68  43  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  65  36  70  38 /   0   0   5   0
Angel Fire......................  67  32  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  75  37  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  72  42  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  81  45  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  76  50  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  79  47  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  81  56  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  83  53  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  85  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  83  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  85  48  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  83  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  85  48  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  84  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  85  49  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  78  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  83  53  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  90  54  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  73  52  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  77  51  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  77  45  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  79  41  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  74  45  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  77  47  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  77  47  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  83  54  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  75  51  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  74  43  76  46 /   0   0   0   5
Raton...........................  79  43  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  80  44  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  77  44  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  81  50  83  53 /   0   0   0  10
Roy.............................  80  48  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  88  52  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  84  51  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  89  50  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  90  55  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  91  53  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  88  52  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  95  59  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  86  55  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  85  53  90  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44