151
FXUS65 KABQ 092326 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
526 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A increased risk for flash flooding looks to unfold this evening
across northeast and east central NM as higher moisture behind a
backdoor front combined with a disturbance moving overhead will set
the stage for widespread showers and storms along and east of the
central mountain chain. Considerable burn scar flash flooding is
expected across the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon this afternoon through
Monday morning. Showers and storms will continue across northeast
areas Monday with the low overhead. Additionally, some severe storms
could be possible across eastern areas this evening and Monday
afternoon and evening. High pressure then develops over the region
Tuesday. A few showers and storms will still be possible across
northeast NM Tuesday afternoon. High pressure intensifies overhead
Wednesday and Thursday resulting in little if any storm coverage and
extremely hot temperatures once again. Another disturbance moves
across northern NM Friday bringing some showers and storms to
northern areas with some stronger winds elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 137 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A weak Pacific low continues to approach from the southwest, with
the upper level circulation currently moving into the Bootheel per
the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Meanwhile, the remaining
mid level ridge is holding on across northern NM as evidenced by the
slow and erratic movement of the limited convection across the
northern mountains so far this afternoon. However, the upper level
ridge is forecast to erode overnight and allow the Pacific low to
continue to make northeastward progress toward northeast NM by
Monday morning. The deformation aloft ahead of this approaching
feature will allow deeper convection across north central and
northeast NM to persist overnight, even as the low level upslope
flow diminishes. However, once the lower boundary layer gets rain-
cooled and all of the instability generated by daytime heating gets
used, rainfall intensity will decrease overnight. 12z model
solutions advertise impressive qpf still and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch with no additions planned at this time. A marginal
threat for severe storms persists as well, with the main threat area
across the east central and southeast plains later this afternoon
and early evening, although storm mode will favor clusters with
damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. A gusty east canyon
wind is still anticipated later this evening into the middle RGV,
but timing and speeds are uncertain due to dependence on convective
outflow and/or cold pooling east of the Sandias/Manzanos. The upper
low is forecast to spin over northeast NM Monday morning and then
move southeast into the TX Panhandle Monday night. Good chances for
showers and storms will persist across central and eastern NM as the
upper low is slow to move out. Forcing associated with the ejecting
upper low and opposing southeast low level flow will create an area
of surface convergence over the southeast and east central plains
Monday afternoon that could result in a quick shot at strong to
severe storms before potential organization as the forcing shifts
into the lower TX Panhandle and far west TX Monday evening.
Temperatures will be much cooler Monday due to cloud cover and rain-
cooling with highs forecast 10-15 degrees below normal across
central and eastern NM. Areas of low stratus/fog may develop late
Monday night across eastern NM, but kept fog out of the forecast at
this time due to low forecast confidence in placement.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 137 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Temperatures heat back up Tuesday due to upper level high pressure
redeveloping over the AZ/NM border at around 591 to 592 dm.
Temperatures across most of the lower elevations will be back to the
low to mid 90s with near triple digits across southern NM.
Temperatures will be cooler and in the 80s across northeast NM due
to some showers and storms developing in the afternoon from a
trailing upper level trough on the backside of the departing upper
low over the southern plains. The upper level high moves over the
state and intensifies to 595 dm on Wednesday allowing temperatures
to heat up even more. Widespread 90s are expected across lower
elevations with Albuquerque and Farmington possibly getting to 100
degrees again. Socorro could get close to 105 and satisfying their
Heat Advisory criteria. Even northeast NM will get back into the 90s
due to southerly winds and higher upper level heights. The hot
temperatures look to peak on Thursday as the high overhead
intensifies a little more to 596 dm. Albuquerque and Farmington are
forecast to reach the low 100s with mid to upper 100s possible
across the lower RGV and southeast NM. Most of eastern plains could
be close to or reach the century mark Thursday afternoon. Some mid
level moisture ahead of a Pacific low moving into southern CA could
allow for a few virga showers and dry storms to develop in the high
terrain Thursday evening before sunset.

The aforementioned Pacific low looks to weaken and open up as
it moves towards the Four Corners Friday squashing the upper high
south and east. This will help to cool temperatures a little
areawide. Models are still struggling in the exact timing of the
disturbance, with the GFS a touch faster than the ECMWF. Most
ensembles agree in the upper level trough being over Arizona Friday
afternoon with southerly winds ahead of it pulling some Gulf
moisture into the state. The timing of the trough and when the drier
westerly winds arrive will be critical for precipitation chances or
critical fire weather conditions. Right now, ensembles are favoring
stronger winds with possible critical fire weather conditions across
western NM with higher moisture across north central and northeast
NM resulting in some afternoon and evening showers and storms. The
upper level trough moves through the state Friday night and exits
into the Great Plains Saturday. Temperatures cool down a little
further, closer to mid June averages, in it`s wake. The
deterministic ECMWF is the slowest in exiting the upper trough
resulting in another round of afternoon showers and storms over
northeast NM, but most ensembles have the upper level trough exiting
into the Great Plains Saturday afternoon with drier westerly flow in
it`s wake resulting in little to any showers and storms across
northeast NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 404 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist across western
NM, with increasing probabilities for MVFR and even short-lived
IFR going east across NM toward KLVS, KTCC and KROW. This is due
to both impacts from showers/storms and the potential for low
stratus to develop overnight across eastern NM. Convection is
forecast to persist well beyond midnight, with impacts to KSAF,
KLVS and even KTCC. In addition, areas of mountain obscurations
will develop overnight. A gusty east canyon wind has developed at
KABQ early this evening, but will likely slack off and then redevelop
late evening due to thunderstorm outflow from the east side of
the mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A weak Pacific low will combine with increasing moisture behind a
backdoor front to create good chances for soaking storms across
central and eastern NM through Monday. Any convection from the
Continental Divide westward will likely be dry or at least have a
very small wetting footprint. An upper level ridge is forecast to
follow from Tuesday through Thursday, with hot, dry and unstable
conditions gradually working east across the area. Residual moisture
will be sufficient for a limited round of wetting storms Tuesday
afternoon/evening along/east of the central mountain chain, followed
by an even more limited round Wednesday. Thursday will be the
hottest, driest and most unstable day of the forecast cycle with a
595dam 500mb high directly overhead. A Pacific low is still forecast
to approach Friday and move over Friday night through Saturday. The
exact track of this feature will determine whether impacts favor
critical fire weather conditions across western NM on Friday, which
is still uncertain. Latest models are showing good chances for
wetting storms associated with this feature Fri/Sat across north
central and northeast NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  85  55  94 /  20  30   5   5
Dulce...........................  49  76  42  89 /  30  50  20  20
Cuba............................  52  76  49  86 /  50  40  10  20
Gallup..........................  50  82  44  92 /  20  20   0   5
El Morro........................  51  79  49  86 /  30  20   5   5
Grants..........................  50  81  46  91 /  30  30  10  10
Quemado.........................  51  81  50  88 /  20  20   5   5
Magdalena.......................  56  80  56  88 /  30  40  10  10
Datil...........................  52  79  53  87 /  20  30  10  10
Reserve.........................  44  86  45  94 /  20  10   5   5
Glenwood........................  58  91  62  99 /  10  10   0   5
Chama...........................  46  67  42  81 /  40  80  30  40
Los Alamos......................  57  70  56  82 /  70  70  20  40
Pecos...........................  52  69  52  82 /  90  80  20  40
Cerro/Questa....................  49  65  45  77 /  70  70  30  50
Red River.......................  42  59  42  72 /  80  80  40  50
Angel Fire......................  41  61  38  74 /  80  70  30  50
Taos............................  51  70  45  84 /  60  70  30  40
Mora............................  47  68  47  80 /  80  80  20  50
Espanola........................  58  73  53  90 /  60  60  20  30
Santa Fe........................  56  68  55  86 /  80  70  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  57  71  54  89 /  80  60  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  76  60  92 /  70  50  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  77  59  94 /  60  40  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  79  59  96 /  60  40  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  78  60  94 /  60  40  10  10
Belen...........................  58  83  55  96 /  50  30  10   5
Bernalillo......................  61  78  59  94 /  60  50  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  57  81  54  95 /  50  30  10   5
Corrales........................  59  78  59  95 /  60  40  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  57  82  56  95 /  50  30  10   5
Placitas........................  60  74  59  89 /  70  60  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  61  79  59  94 /  60  40  10  10
Socorro.........................  62  86  60  99 /  30  30  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  73  55  84 /  80  60  10  10
Tijeras.........................  55  74  55  87 /  70  60  10  10
Edgewood........................  54  75  51  88 /  80  70  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  77  47  89 /  80  60  10  10
Clines Corners..................  51  71  50  85 /  90  60  20  20
Mountainair.....................  53  77  51  88 /  70  50  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  51  78  52  87 /  60  50  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  58  83  59  93 /  50  30  20   5
Ruidoso.........................  51  77  54  85 /  50  40  20  20
Capulin.........................  52  68  49  80 /  80  60  20  40
Raton...........................  51  69  50  84 /  70  60  20  40
Springer........................  52  71  52  86 /  80  60  20  50
Las Vegas.......................  50  67  51  81 /  90  70  20  50
Clayton.........................  56  72  56  85 /  70  60  30  30
Roy.............................  54  70  53  82 /  90  60  30  40
Conchas.........................  57  76  57  88 / 100  60  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  56  75  55  85 /  90  60  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  57  77  57  89 /  90  60  40  20
Clovis..........................  60  78  60  89 / 100  60  60  20
Portales........................  60  79  59  90 / 100  60  50  20
Fort Sumner.....................  60  79  58  90 /  80  50  30  10
Roswell.........................  65  85  66  98 /  70  40  20  10
Picacho.........................  57  81  57  92 /  60  50  20  20
Elk.............................  54  81  54  93 /  40  60  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for NMZ214-215-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11