953
FXUS65 KABQ 071145 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
545 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Another hot day is on tap for central and northern NM, but the
coverage of showers and storms will be greater this afternoon than
yesterday. A mix of wet and dry storms will favor the high terrain
and any showers and storms that do develop will be capable of
producing very gusty outflow winds. In addition, a few strong to
severe storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts across
the eastern plains each afternoon through Monday. Storms will trend
wetter this weekend into Monday as moisture levels increase. This
will amplify the risk of burn scar flash flooding Sunday and Monday
afternoon, particularly in northern NM. After a brief cooldown
Monday, temperatures rise again mid-week as the state dries out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Center of the 593dam low will saunter vaguely eastward towards TX
today, weakening in its trek. It`s migration won`t offer much in way
of relief from the heat, with well above average temperatures
persisting areawide. Temperatures will flirt with the century mark
across the RGV and northwest plateau once again today, and near 105F
in Quay Co and the Chaves Co plains. A few variables could throw a
wrench in the gears of these areas hitting Heat Advisory criteria
today--namely, the increasing moisture and potential for expanding
cloud cover. However, given locally breezy downsloping winds and
continued strength of the high, did maintain the previously issued
advisory, as well as expand its area to the aforementioned eastern
zones. After yesterday`s meager PWATs, an influx of moisture will
raise PWAT values a few to several tenths of an inch. This will help
to invigorate the moisture quality of afternoon storms, particularly
east of the central mts. DCAPE values are still impressive, ranging
between 1000 and 2500 J/kg, and will allow cells to be capable of
sudden and potentially severe downburst winds.

The high tours TX tonight into Saturday morning, elongating and
weakening further, as a loitering eastern Pacific low begins to
scoot into the Baja CA. Meanwhile, a pair of lows tangoing in CAN
will allow flow aloft to become northwest just to our north. This
will help to enhance lift to generate some more robust convective
activity across northeastern NM. Elsewhere, another round of hit-and-
miss storms will dominate the afternoon. With the continued high
DCAPE, gusty downburst winds will remain a threat. The upper high`s
escape to TX will subsequently lower H5 pressure heights and daytime
highs will cool a few degrees compared to the previous day`s
readings. This will take all locales out of the crosshairs of Heat
Advisory criteria for Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Diurnal convection will wind down Saturday evening in most areas
with the loss of daytime heating. The northeast plains is the one
area where convection may persist through the overnight as outflow
boundaries collide and create new updrafts. The Low currently
spinning off the coast of Baja California will finally begin to lift
northward on Sunday. This could help some surface moisture
associated with convective activity in northern Mexico make its way
northward into southern NM, but its main impact will be the lift it
provides to create scattered to widespread showers and storms on
Sunday afternoon. PWATs are modeled to peak on Sunday at 150-250% of
normal, with the greatest anomalies over the northern mountains
where storm activity will focus. Slow storm motions combined with
this deep moisture will result in an increased risk of burn scar
flash flooding over the HPCC burn scar. Once again, storms could
continue well into the overnight hours across the eastern plains
thanks to continued moist air advection from the east. This will
likely send an outflow boundary through the gaps of the central mtn
chain, ushering in some gusty east winds and surging dewpoints into
the low 50s. Lingering cloud cover could limit convective activity
somewhat Monday afternoon, but destabilization still appears likely
at least along and east of the central mtn chain. The good news is
that storms should be moving off the mountains quicker than Sunday
(10-15mph), however back-building storms will still result in an
elevated flood risk over the HPCC burn scar.

Ridging is expected to amplify from the south on Monday as a
northwesterly shortwave grazes the northeastern portion of the
forecast area. The bump in shear this wave provides could support
organizing storms and supercells, but its too early to tell if it
will line up with the area of greatest instability. Given the
moisture and cloud cover, Monday looks to be the coolest day of the
week with high temps ranging from near average across the west to as
much as 20 degrees below average across the east. However, the
relief will be short-lived because amplifying ridging from the west
will dry out western areas and bring temps back above seasonal
averages. Ensemble guidance is struggling to figure out where this
ridge axis will set-up mid-week, with some showing it as far west as
the PacNW and others as far east as the spine of the Rockies.
Furthermore, around 35% of members are showing the development of
another closed Low off the southern CA coast to the west of where
the ridge sets up. Above average temperatures and little
precipitation will be favored during the mid to late week timeframe,
although afternoon virga showers and dry storms are possible each
afternoon over the high terrain. Then, fire weather concerns may
return next weekend. Around 45% of global ensembles are showing a
deep trough developing over The Great Basin, placing dry and gusty
southwest flow over New Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Density gradient-driven ely winds at KABQ will continue
diminishing through the early morning hours. Isold to sct shwrs
and tstms will return this aftn with the potential of sudden and
strong downburst winds. Some storms may be capable of lcl heavy
rainfall which could cause brief reductions in cigs/vsbys. Outflow
from convective activity may generate wind shifts throughout the
aftn and evening. Storms will diminish aft 08/03Z most areas with
winds becoming light and variable.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Moisture will improve somewhat today, with nearly all zones (save
for the plains) seeing an increase to min RH of around 5 to 10
percent. Winds will increase areawide, with locally breezy south to
southwest winds expected across the highlands and their adjacent
plains. This will create some localized and brief duration critical
fire weather conditions across the east central plains this
afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible once again with most cells
trending drier across the central mountains and westward, with
wetter footprints possible in portions of the eastern plains. Any
cells that develop will be capable of sudden, strong, and erratic
downburst winds, as well as cloud to ground lightning. Given the
previous week`s long duration of single digit RH, dry lightning into
receptive fuel beds could create new fire starts. A mix of wet/dry
storms will continue on Saturday and very low min RH will return to
the Rio Grande Valley and westward. The potential for wetting
footprints increases Sunday into Monday, along with a welcome
cooldown to daytime highs. Min RH will trend down on Tuesday, with
all locales seeing a reduction of around 10 to 25 percent. Unsettled
weather will persist through the end of the week, with afternoon
storms favoring the high terrain, the wetting footprints of which
are likely to nominal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  99  58  96  58 /   5   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  93  47  91  46 /  10  10   5   0
Cuba............................  92  54  90  55 /  20  20   5   5
Gallup..........................  95  49  92  53 /  20  10   0   0
El Morro........................  90  53  86  57 /  30  20   0   5
Grants..........................  94  52  91  55 /  30  20   0   5
Quemado.........................  89  54  87  57 /  40  10   5  10
Magdalena.......................  91  62  90  63 /  40  20  20  20
Datil...........................  88  58  87  60 /  60  20  20  20
Reserve.........................  95  49  91  50 /  50  10  10  20
Glenwood........................  99  64  94  63 /  30  10  10  20
Chama...........................  86  47  85  47 /  20  10  10   5
Los Alamos......................  90  63  88  63 /  20  20  20   5
Pecos...........................  93  58  91  56 /  30  20  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  86  50  84  50 /  20  10  30  20
Red River.......................  78  47  77  45 /  20  20  40  30
Angel Fire......................  83  40  81  40 /  20  20  30  20
Taos............................  92  51  90  51 /  20  20  20  10
Mora............................  88  51  85  50 /  30  20  40  20
Espanola........................  97  59  96  60 /  20  10  10  10
Santa Fe........................  92  62  91  61 /  20  20  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  95  60  95  60 /  20  20  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  96  67  96  67 /  20  20   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  98  65  97  66 /  20  20   0   5
Albuquerque Valley.............. 100  63  99  66 /  20  20   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  99  65  98  67 /  20  20   0   5
Belen........................... 101  61  99  64 /  20  20   0  10
Bernalillo...................... 100  65  99  66 /  20  20   0   5
Bosque Farms.................... 100  60  99  63 /  20  20   0   5
Corrales........................ 100  63  99  65 /  20  20   0   5
Los Lunas....................... 101  61  99  64 /  20  20   0  10
Placitas........................  96  65  95  66 /  20  20   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  99  66  98  67 /  20  20   0   5
Socorro......................... 102  66 101  69 /  20  20   5  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  91  62  90  61 /  20  20   5  10
Tijeras.........................  94  62  92  61 /  20  20   5  10
Edgewood........................  94  60  92  59 /  20  20   5  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  96  54  94  55 /  20  20  10  10
Clines Corners..................  91  57  89  55 /  20  20  10  20
Mountainair.....................  93  59  92  59 /  20  20   5  20
Gran Quivira....................  92  58  92  58 /  30  20  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  95  65  95  65 /  30  30  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  88  59  87  60 /  50  40  40  30
Capulin.........................  90  56  85  53 /  40  20  70  50
Raton...........................  94  54  91  54 /  30  20  60  40
Springer........................  95  56  92  56 /  30  20  50  30
Las Vegas.......................  91  56  89  54 /  30  20  30  20
Clayton.........................  97  63  91  59 /  30  20  40  50
Roy.............................  93  60  91  58 /  30  20  40  40
Conchas......................... 102  64 100  63 /  20  20  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  97  63  97  62 /  20  20  20  30
Tucumcari....................... 103  66 102  62 /  10  20  10  30
Clovis.......................... 100  68 101  65 /   5  20   5  40
Portales........................ 101  67 101  65 /   5  10   0  30
Fort Sumner..................... 101  66 101  64 /  10  20   5  30
Roswell......................... 104  71 104  72 /  20  10   5  10
Picacho.........................  96  63  95  66 /  40  30  30  20
Elk.............................  95  61  92  63 /  40  30  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ201-219-234-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...12