527
FNUS73 KABR 291134
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Schurman GPA...SD GFP
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
634 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...today should be dry. And there should be plenty of
sunshine throughout the day. Wind will maintain a southeast
(130-150 degrees) direction today, but the speed will steadily
increase. At ignition time, wind speed should be generally around
10 mph. Throughout the afternoon, sustained southeast winds will
increase to closer to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
possible. Afternoon relative humidity values should dry out into a
35 to 40 percent range.

Outlook...there is a cold front passing through the burn site late
in the day on Thursday, switching the wind around to a west
direction. Until then, breezy to windy south to southeast winds
are expected to persist. Also, leading up to this frontal
passage, precipitation chances including thunderstorms start
showing up Thursday morning, continuing into late Thursday
evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......2500-4800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (25200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (67200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or (low) to (moderate).

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   1   2   2   3   3   3   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............61  63  66  67  69  70  72  73
RH..............56  52  48  47  44  42  38  38
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..10  12  13  13  14  15  15  15
20 FT wind gust.16  17  18  20  21  22  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.4
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 14 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......500-3100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (46800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (7000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 (low).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........3   2   2   3   3   7   11  10  17  22  34  45
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............71  70  68  63  61  60  58  58  58  57  57  56
RH..............41  42  47  56  58  58  62  62  59  64  67  69
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..15  14  14  14  14  14  14  15  16  17  18  18
20 FT wind gust.23  22  22  22  23  23  24  25  26  28  28  30
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 1.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
Smoke Dispersal.FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................3 percent increasing to 66 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0700, then 2 until 1600, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 17 to 22 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......700-2300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 24 to 33 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (13800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (58700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........59  64  64  72  78  82  85  86  87  87  88  89
Weather cov.....    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  70  70
Temp............56  58  60  62  64  66  67  67  68  68  69  68
RH..............69  67  67  67  67  68  68  68  65  68  66  68
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..20  20  22  22  22  22  22  22  21  20  18  17
20 FT wind gust.30  31  31  31  32  32  32  32  32  31  30  28
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR

$$
Forecaster...Dorn
Requested by...Owen McElroy
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415236.1/ABR
.DELDT 05/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL owen.mcelroy@state.sd.us