363
FNUS73 KABR 291128
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Fordham GPA...SD GFP
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
628 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...today should be dry. And there should be plenty of
sunshine throughout the day. Wind will maintain a southeast
(140-150 degrees) direction today, but the speed will steadily
increase. At ignition time, wind speed should be generally 10 to
15 mph. But, by early afternoon (Noon-2PM) sustained southeast
winds will be closer to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
possible. Afternoon relative humidity values should dry out into
a 35 to 40 percent range.

Outlook...there is a cold front passing through the burn site late
in the day on Thursday, switching the wind around to a west
direction. Until then, breezy to windy south to southeast winds
are expected to persist. Also, leading up to this frontal
passage, precipitation chances including thunderstorms start
showing up Thursday morning, continuing into late Thursday
evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......2300-4500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (30000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (77900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 (low).

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   5   8   10  10  8   7   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............62  65  68  70  72  74  75  75
RH..............60  52  47  44  41  38  38  38
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..12  14  14  14  16  16  17  17
20 FT wind gust.20  21  22  22  23  25  26  26
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.9 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.4 4.5 4.3
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
CWR.................7 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 15 to 21 mph with gusts to
                    around 33 mph.
Mixing height.......600-3800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 17 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (72000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (8700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 (low).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........6   5   5   10  18  20  21  29  43  52  53  62
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10
Temp............74  73  72  67  65  64  61  61  61  60  59  59
RH..............40  43  46  52  58  58  62  62  60  64  67  69
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..17  16  15  15  16  17  18  18  18  20  20  21
20 FT wind gust.28  26  26  26  28  30  30  31  32  32  32  33
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 1.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7
Smoke Dispersal.GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms
                    through the day. Rain showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................13 percent increasing to 73 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................2 until 0700, then 3 until 1000, then 2 until
                    1300, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 16 to 22 mph with gusts to around
                    35 mph decreasing to around 14 mph late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the morning. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......700-1900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 21 to 29 mph decreasing to around 18 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (14100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (42200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........67  77  83  86  91  92  91  91  90  90  89  88
Weather cov.....CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30  60  60  60  60  60  60  70  70  70  80  80
Temp............57  59  61  62  63  64  66  67  68  68  69  68
RH..............75  75  75  78  78  81  78  75  73  76  73  76
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..21  21  22  22  22  22  22  21  20  18  16  14
20 FT wind gust.35  33  35  35  35  33  32  31  30  28  25  23
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...Dorn
Requested by...Owen McElroy
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415238.1/ABR
.DELDT 05/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL owen.mcelroy@state.sd.us