Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
173
FNUS73 KABR 290835
FWSABR
Spot Forecast for Perch Lake RX...USFWS
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
335 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on May 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...today should be dry. And there should be plenty of
sunshine throughout the day. Wind will maintain a southeast
(130-160 degrees) direction today, but the speed will increase. At
ignition time, wind speed should be generally around 10 mph or
less. A couple hours of sunshine should start to change all that,
though, as sustained southeast winds will probably be running up
to a 15 to 20 mph range by mid-morning (9-10am) with gusts at or
above 25 mph at times. By early afternoon, sustained winds should
be closing in on 20 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph expected.
Afternoon relative humidity values should fall to close to 45
percent.
Outlook...there is a cold front passing through the burn site on
Thursday, switching the wind around to a west-northwest direction.
Leading up to that frontal passage, precipitation chances
including thunderstorms show up from late tonight through early
Thursday afternoon.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Southeast winds 10 to 18 mph increasing
to 20 to 26 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......400-4000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 22 mph increasing to 24 to 26
mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (92900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........31 30 18 8 10 5 4 3 3 3 3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............43 47 50 58 61 64 68 71 72 73 74
RH..............100 96 89 69 65 58 51 47 44 44 44
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..10 13 15 18 20 21 22 22 23 24 26
20 FT wind gust.16 18 22 24 26 28 28 29 30 31 32
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.0
Smoke Dispersal.PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD GD GD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
thunderstorms after 3 am. Chance of rain
showers after 3 am. Chance of thunderstorms
after 3 am.
CWR.................7 percent increasing to 24 percent after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0300, then 2 until 0400, then 3.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Southeast winds 22 to 26 mph. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after
3 am. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms after 3 am.
Mixing height.......700-3400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 22 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (78500 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (13600 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........3 (very low).
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........3 7 13 25 35 41 43 46 57 66 71 75
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 40 40
Temp............74 72 71 65 63 62 61 59 59 59 58 58
RH..............44 48 51 63 65 65 67 72 72 72 77 77
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S SE
20 FT wind spd..26 24 23 23 22 23 22 22 22 22 22 22
20 FT wind gust.32 31 32 32 32 32 33 32 32 32 32 32
Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Smoke Dispersal.GD FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
likely and chance of thunderstorms.
CWR.................29 percent increasing to 47 percent in the
morning, then decreasing to 26 percent in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1600, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 20 to 22 mph shifting to the
northwest 15 to 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the morning and early
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......900-3400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 22 mph shifting to the northwest 15
to 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (18000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (44000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........77 83 85 89 89 88 85 82 74 67 59 50
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).50 50 50 50 70 70 70 40 40 40 30 30
Temp............57 56 58 59 62 62 63 63 65 66 68 68
RH..............83 93 93 93 90 90 87 84 75 70 63 59
20 FT wind dir..SE S S S S SW W W W NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..22 22 22 21 20 20 18 18 17 17 16 15
20 FT wind gust.31 31 31 30 28 25 24 23 23 22 22 21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.4
Smoke Dispersal.PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR
$$
Forecaster...Dorn
Requested by...Todd Ruzicka
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415254.0/ABR
.DELDT 05/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL todd_ruzicka@fws.gov