307
FNUS73 KABR 282249
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Schurman GPA...SD GFP
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
549 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure overhead during the morning hours will mean
light winds out of the southeast, but those winds will be on the
increase slowly through the afternoon. Dry conditions will prevail
with showers and storms not expected into far eastern South
Dakota until the morning hours early Thursday.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......2500-4700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (22900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (67700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   2   3   3   4   5   5   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............60  62  64  65  67  68  69  70
RH..............58  56  54  52  49  47  45  44
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..8   9   12  13  14  14  14  14
20 FT wind gust.15  17  18  20  21  22  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 3.3 3.6 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.5
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
CWR.................6 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 14 to 17 mph with gusts to
                    around 29 mph.
Mixing height.......600-4300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (65000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (8800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........7   8   11  13  16  19  21  24  29  34  39  43
Weather cov.....                                            SCH
Weather type....                                            RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  20
Temp............69  68  65  60  58  56  56  55  55  55  54  54
RH..............44  45  50  58  62  64  64  66  66  66  71  71
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..14  14  14  14  14  14  15  15  15  16  17  17
20 FT wind gust.23  23  23  23  23  23  24  25  26  26  28  29
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 2.4 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
Smoke Dispersal.GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning, then rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the morning. Rain showers and chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent increasing to 68 percent.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0700, then 2 until 1300, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 16 to 22 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......700-2100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 22 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (13000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (55800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........48  53  57  61  65  72  80  87  87  88  88  88
Weather cov.....SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20  60  60  60  60  60  60  90  90  90  90  90
Temp............54  56  59  63  66  68  69  70  65  65  65  65
RH..............74  67  67  67  67  67  67  68  69  71  73  74
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..18  20  21  21  22  22  22  22  21  20  18  16
20 FT wind gust.30  31  32  32  32  32  32  31  31  30  29  26
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.8
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  PR

$$
Forecaster...Connelly
Requested by...Owen McElroy
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415236.0/ABR
.DELDT 05/28/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL owen.mcelroy@state.sd.us