539
FXAK67 PAJK 292229
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
229 PM AKDT Wed May 29 2024

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery today has shown clouds and
showers rotating counter-clockwise around a low off the coast of
Baranof Island. Some of the isolated showers are looking taller,
with more development, which could cause some gusty winds and
moderate rates when they pass by. However, there are lots of
breaks between the showers, such as over some of the inner
channels and clear skies on the north side of the low in Yakutat.

Looking ahead, the low will slowly weaken to an open trough today,
but models show the showers remaining around, in a general line
from Mt. Fairweather to POW and over the mountains further inland
through tonight. On Thursday, the isolated showers shift
northward while dissipating. Meanwhile, another trough approaches
the southern outer coast of POW and Baranof Islands. Showers with
the second trough look to dissipate through the day with generally
the largest breaks expected across the central inner channels.

Temperatures will continue to be on the cool side of normal over the
next 24hrs with freezing levels between 3-4kft. Expect high
temperatures to spike into the upper 50s to around 60F in sunny
breaks.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/...
Overview: Active weather pattern for the end of the week and into
the mid range as upper levels lows keep a series of surface lows and
fronts tracking into the region. Gale force fronts for Friday
likely, Sunday possible. Moderate to heavy rain fall mainly over
the southern Panhandle Friday, Sunday, and potential on Tuesday into
Wednesday.

Eastern Gulf front moves in early Friday with at least gale force
winds developing. For inner channels southerly winds highest over
Clarence Strait, 25 kts, then dropping into the 15 to 20 kt range
progressing northward, then down to 10 to 15 kts north of Icy
Strait. More steady and persistent rain begins as the front moves
inland along with higher QPF amounts, especially over the south.
Amounts upwards of 1 to 1.5 inches. New guidance keeps northern half
of the region with lower chances for rainfall due to the front
shearing apart and initial offshore flow. Another surface low
rotates around the previous low into the SE Gulf expanding by
Sunday. Potential for gales along this front over the SE Gulf along
with more moderate to heavy rain to the south with rain totals
nearing 1 inch. Similar trend with most precip to the south and
offshore flow and position of the front having the north with lower
chances of rain. Watching next weeks systems, especially Tuesday
into Wednesday where moisture flow may be far enough north to hit
the points over the southern regions with 1 to upward of 2 inches of
rain. Early on still minor spread between operational GFS/NAM and
ECMWF/Canadian but overall similar synoptic pattern. Ensembles
continue to put the broad 500 mb low over the gulf into next week
keeping the active pattern in place.


&&

.AVIATION...Variable flight conditions bouncing between VFR and MVFR
across the panhandle this early afternoon with rain showers moving
through the area. Winds and wind gusts are increasing as a strong
weather front moves over the eastern gulf with gusts up to 30kts
near pakt,pahn and pajn. These will increase to be near 35 to 40 kt
along with increasing LLWS from the southeast as the front moves
over the inner channels. The LLWS will shift to the south/southwest
as the front moves east of the area through the early morning hours.
The showers will transition to rain as the front moves over the area
late this afternoon into tonight. This will slowly deteriorate
conditions down to consistent MVFR with some locations seeing IFR
conditions tonight. Conditions should lift by daybreak to be near
VFR conditions and much lighter winds and limited LLWS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ferrin
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...ABJ

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