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FXAK67 PAJK 022226
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
226 PM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/ Somewhat quiet short range
forecast at least for the first 24 hours. The panhandle currently
is dealing with yet another front that is bringing more rain to
parts of the area. Most of the rainfall has been in the southern
panhandle today, and that is mainly where it will stay before
diminishing later tonight. Winds are mostly 20 kt or less across
the panhandle at the moment.

Monday is still looking to mostly be quiet as some ridging over
the area suppresses the showers a little. It will not be
completely dry as there will still be some chances of rain showers
and mostly cloudy skies throughout the area due to continued
onshore flow.

Monday Night is where things start to get interesting as a strong
storm with the remains of a former tropical system (Tropical
Storm Ewiniar) moves into the SE gulf. By the time the storm gets
here however it will be starting to weaken and most of its
moisture and energy will be directed farther south. We will still
see some increased winds and rain from it however starting Monday
night. The southern panhandle in particular will be the most
affected with winds to min gale force likely for Clarence Strait
and the extreme SE gulf late Monday night with the initial frontal
band that moves in. Gusty winds are also possible for the areas on
land with gusts possibly reaching 40 to 50 mph in some areas of the
south. Rain will also be starting up again, but with most of the
moisture directed south of the area, totals are not expected to
reach significant levels so no flooding is expected at this time.

.LONG TERM.../ Tuesday through Saturday/ Continuing from the
short term discussion, the the big story is the unseasonably strong
low that enters the Gulf and begins impacting the southern panhandle
late Monday into Tuesday. Model guidance remains on track for
the system to recurve northward and northwestward on Tuesday.
Unlike the previous system, this one will likely bring moderate
rain to a majority of the panhandle in the form of convective
showers as it transits the gulf, with the heaviest rain still
expected for the southern panhandle. The storm itself is expected
to have substantial embedded moisture, while a significant plume
of moisture will be primarily aimed further south toward the
Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Models continue to trend
towards having this system weaken as it makes its turn north and
west into the central gulf. Despite this, sustained winds of 25+
kt are expected for Clarence Strait and northward towards Sumner
through Tuesday afternoon before starting a downward trend as the
storm continues tracking NW. Similarly, NE gulf coast will see
widespread small craft conditions due to rising seas ranging from
17 ft SW of Prince of Wales Island to 12 ft near the Fairweather
grounds. As the storm progresses into the north central gulf there
is a chance for a barrier jet to develop along the NE gulf coast
from Cape Fairweather towards Cape Suckling. Either way, seas of
9+ ft are expected for the majority of gulf waters before the
storm finally exits the region Thursday morning and seas begin to
subside.

While the storm continues marching westward during the day Thursday,
southerly flow and remnant moisture will mean lingering showers for
most of the panhandle. The model turbulence towards the end of
the week has cleared up a bit, with a ridge setting up over SE AK
and potentially building up towards the interior. This will lead
to clearing conditions and therefore maximized daytime heating, as
well as warm flow in the low to mid levels with snow levels set
to reach upwards of 6000 ft in the southern panhandle by the
second half of the day Friday and continue increasing into the
weekend. This will be driven by overall increased southerly flow
due to the developing gradient between the above mentioned ridge
as well as another strong low that is set to spin up in the west
central gulf. Overall forecaster confidence is moderate for this
period due to relative agreement between models in the mid range
and lower model divergence in the long range compared to previous
runs.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions for the first part of the TAF period while
the potential for LLWS remains across the southern panhandle.
Conditions are expected to slowly deteriorate to MVFR and maybe
some isolated IFR pockets across the southern panhandle during the
overnight and morning hours as the remnants of the front continue
to move closer to the panhandle. AAWU forecasts point towards some
potential turbulence with this front, especially along the outer
coast and southern panhandle. LLWS is expected to decrease in
coverage during the overnight hours allowing for some improving
conditions. Towards the latter half of the TAF period, conditions
are expected to improve ahead of the next system.

&&

.MARINE...Marine forecast is mainly focused on the storm for Mon
night into Tuesday. Winds in the extreme SE Gulf and over the
southern inner channels, especially Clarence Strait, have been
increased to min gale force for Monday night as the initial
frontal band moves in late. Those winds are expected to diminish a
little down to 25 to 30 kt by Tuesday but will remain at that
level through Tuesday night at least in the south. Central inner
channels and NE gulf likely will not see elevated winds from this
system until during the day on Tuesday, and even then it will only
be around 25 kt at max. 30 kt winds will then transition to the
northern gulf Wed with diminishing winds for the rest of the area
by that point. Seas will be elevated with this storm possibly
reaching 15 ft for the SE gulf and up to 9 ft or 10 ft for
southern Clarence Strait on Tuesday before slowly diminishing.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...SF

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