217
FXUS61 KAKQ 281853
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
253 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier conditions are expected across the region
through late week, though some isolated late day showers or
storms will be possible over far northern portions of our area
today and tomorrow. Cooler, less humid conditions are expected
for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 950 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Quieter weather today than the past few. An isolated shower or
  storm is possible over far northern portions of the area.

Latest analysis reveals ~992m sfc low pressure over western
Quebec, with the associated sfc cold front extending south
across the eastern seaboard into the deep south. As of this
writing, the surface front has reached the Albemarle Sound.
Aloft, a longwave trough over the Great Lakes continues to
slowly translate east, as downstream upper ridging builds across
the intermountain west into the Canadian Rockies.

The upper trough slowly pushes east, with the lead shortwave
sliding just north of the region along and just south of the
Mason-Dixon line. Some weak shortwave energy associated with the
system does push across the lower mid-Atlantic, and thus a few
passing/isolated showers can`t be entirely ruled out over our
far northern tier of counties north/northeast of Richmond metro
region this afternoon. A 20% PoP has been maintained over north
central VA and the VA northern neck...and also along OBX
Currituck for a stray shower or storm along the afternoon
seabreeze. Otherwise, a pleasant and mainly dry day is expected
for much of the region under a partly to mostly sunny sky.
Thicknesses remain similar to those of yesterday, so despite the
slightly lower dewpoints, still expecting a seasonably warm day
with highs in the mid 80s inland, upper 70s to low 80s along
the coast.

Cooler, dry and comfortable tonight with lows in the mid 50s
well inland, upper 50s to low 60s for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms possible across the north once
  again on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

- Cooler and more comfortable Thursday.

The upper low will begin to eject northeast on Wednesday, as
upper ridging builds east across the plains. However, this will
send a potent shortwave and secondary cold front SE from the
Ohio Valley toward our area. The upper disturbance looks to
slide across northern portions of the commonwealth toward the
Delmarva Wed evening, with the associated secondary cold front
crossing the area Wed night. This likely portends increasing
cloud cover for our area through Wed afternoon, and should bring
another (more numerous) round of convection Wed afternoon. Once
again, areal coverage will be highest across our northern and
northeastern counties, or mainly N and E of the I-64 corridor.
Cooler temps aloft will allow for the development of some modest
instability (< 500 J/kg of MLCAPE) by the afternoon as bulk
shear and mid- level lapse rates tick up slightly. So while
widespread severe is not anticipated, a few thunderstorms (and
potentially even a stronger storm or two) are certainly
possible. Will keep PoPs in the 30-40% range north of I-64, with
little or no rain chances south of RIC metro to Hampton
Roads/NE NC. Look for a gradually clearing sky Wed night into
Thursday morning, and a cooler, more comfortable day follows
for Thursday.

Highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Cooler Wednesday
night with lows in the 50s for most of the area, and near
60/lower 60s for the far SE. Highs Thursday generally in the
70s and dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s under a
mostly sunny sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing clouds and perhaps a shower or two along the coast
  Thursday night. Otherwise, mainly dry for the late week
  period.

- Cooler and more comfortable to end the week, with warming
  temperatures returning for Sunday into early next week.

The upper trough over New England digs back south on Thursday
night, in response to another strong shortwave diving out of
the interior northeast/eastern Great Lakes. 00z/28 GFS still
seems intent on lifting a weak frontal wave along a coastal
trough along the Carolina coast, and the ECMWF has trended in
this direction for the time being. Given the dry airmass/meager
PVA, capped PoP at 20% along the SE coast Thu night into Friday.
Either way, does appear that cloud cover increases once again
Thu afternoon into Thu night. However, with the drier air and
lower heights aloft, temps will trend back into the 70s with dew
points in the 40s and 50s. Thus, it will feel much more
comfortable.

Behind this system, high pressure builds down from the Great
Lakes to end the week and start the weekend on a dry and
comfortable note weatherwise. High temps should begin to inch
back up some, in response to upper ridging finally beginning to
build across the eastern CONUS. Overnight lows through the
extended will be in the 50s to near 60 at the immediate coast. A
few upper 40s are possible Thursday and Friday night across the
far NW. Dry conditions continue into the weekend, but cannot
rule out a late day/evening stray shower or storm on Sunday and
Monday, as high pressure begins to shift offshore. Temperatures
this weekend into early next week likely trend upward closer to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Low pressure is centered well N of the region as of 18z and its
associated cold front has pushed S of the Albemarle Sound. VFR
with FEW-SCT aftn CU and a westerly wind of 5-10kt (locally NE
at ORF). Isolated showers/tstms are possible N of RIC and W of
SBY later this aftn and early evening. Otherwise, dry and VFR
tonight with a calm to very light SW wind. An upper trough
slides across the region Wednesday. This has the potential to
trigger isolated to scattered showers/tstms during the aftn,
with chances ranging from 15-20% S to 30-40% N. The wind will
mainly be WSW 5-10kt inland and NNE along the coast.

Dry and VFR conditions prevail Thursday through Sunday as high
pressure builds across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Relatively benign marine conditions are expected through the week.

Light and variable winds across the waters this afternoon with a
stalled front near the area. Seas are generally 2-3 ft and waves in
the bay are 1 ft or less. The front drops S tonight, briefly
shifting winds to the S and then to the N early Wednesday. Winds
again become variable Wednesday afternoon before a secondary cold
front drops through the waters late Thursday night into Wednesday
morning. This will likely produce a brief surge of northerly winds
to around 15 kt in the Chesapeake Bay. There is a low-medium chance
(around 15-20% per local wind probs) that small craft advisories
will be needed. Winds relax some, but remain northerly, for Thursday
afternoon/evening. There will likely be another surge of cooler air
Friday morning and winds again increase to around 15 kt. Similar to
the Wed night/Thu morning event, this is looking mainly sub-SCA (but
cannot completely rule them out). Waves in the bay increase to 2-3
ft during these surges, but average 1-2 ft otherwise. Seas remain 2-
3 ft through the period. Mainly benign conditions into the weekend
with high pressure near the area.

The rip current risk remains low tomorrow (Wednesday) and
Thursday given mainly 2 ft nearshore breaking waves and light
winds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW