814
FXUS61 KALY 300555
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
155 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will continue to bring rain with isolated embedded
thunderstorms to the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics,
Litchfield Hills, and southern Berkshires through early this
morning. Widespread cloud cover elsewhere will trend downward as
high pressure builds in from the west, bringing dry weather and
warming temperatures into the first weekend of June.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A surface low near the New York City area will continue to
track to the east-northeast through today, with an area of light
to moderate rain extending northward into the eastern
Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, central and southern Taconics,
Litchfield Hills, and southern Berkshires. Earlier embedded
thunderstorms have largely dissipated, but there may yet be a
few isolated rumbles of thunder through early this morning,
especially in far southeastern areas from Poughkeepsie east to
Torrington. Latest kenx radar returns show precipitation echoes
extending northward along the Hudson Valley and Berkshires, but
the lowest levels of the atmosphere remain fairly dry thanks to
northerly to northwesterly flow, with dewpoint depressions
remaining above 10 degrees per NYS Mesonet and regional ASOS
observations. Some light rain may eventually reach the surface
as the column moistens, but precipitation amounts will remain
light across the Capital District and into southern Vermont,
with storm-total QPF of about one to three quarter inches
farther south. Steady rain with embedded convection may result
in a few instances of minor nuisance flooding of low-lying or
urban areas in this region.

As the potent shortwave and associated surface low exit to the
east through the day today, rain showers will end in southeastern
areas by mid-morning, with skies expected to trend clearer as
heights aloft begin to rise by tonight. Following morning lows
in the 40s to low 50s for most and upper 30s in the southern
Adirondacks, temperatures will remain slightly below normal
beneath the cold pool within upper troughing and a cool
northerly to northwesterly breeze. Afternoon highs are expected
in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain, and upper 60s to
low 70s at lower elevations. With diminishing winds and clearing
skies overnight tonight, efficient radiative cooling will allow
temperatures to fall to low in the upper 30s to mid 40s across
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday looks like a beautiful day with the sfc anticyclone
building in from PA and the upper Mid Atlantic States. Expect
strong synoptic subsidence to yield abundant sunshine. Highs
trend towards seasonal levels with highs in the 60s over the
higher terrain and lower to mid 70s below 1000 ft in elevation.
Radiational cooling is expected once again Fri night with some
shallow radiational mist/fog in a few spots with lows in the 40s
to around 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An extended period of dry weather is expected into early next week,
as well as a moderating trend to above normal temps for early June.
The weekend opens with high pressure building in over NY and PA.
After a cool morning, expect the subsidence from the sfc anticyclone
and ridging aloft to yield mostly sunny skies and seasonable temps
for the first full day of June.  Max temps are forecasted in the
upper 70s to around 80F in the valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s over
the hills and mtns with comfortable humidity levels.  Mid and upper
level heights continue to build in over the region Sat night into
Sunday. Decent radiational cooling should allow lows to fall in the
mid 40s to lower 50s.  Low and mid level heights increase to +1 to
+2 STDEVs above normal over eastern NY and western New England based
on the latest NAEFS.  Max temps will be slightly warmer in the 70s
to lower 80s to close the weekend.

The medium range guidance has a short-wave moving toward the region
with a cold front getting close to the I-87 corridor Sunday night
into Monday. The short-wave dampens out. We increased the clouds and
did not add in any PoPs yet. We may need a slight or widely
scattered risk of showers to locations from the Capital Region north
and west. Temps will be milder Sunday night with widespread 50s. The
boundary stalls near the forecast area and then lifts back northward
as a warm front Monday afternoon.  Temps will run about 5 degrees
above normal with dewpoints rising into the 50s.

Tuesday into Wednesday, the air mass will be warmer, more humid and
slightly more unstable.  Ridging aloft attempts to build back in for
any threat for a shower or thunderstorm being isolated.  A cold
front may get close to the forecast area heading into the mid week
with a mid and upper level trough moving into the upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region.  Scattered showers and isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms will be possible by the mid week.  Humidity
levels may increase to moderate levels.  Max temps in the lower to
mid 80s will be common both days in valleys with some upper 80s in
the Hudson River Valley and 70s to lower 80s over the higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z/Fri...An upper level shortwave pushing across the mid-
Atlantic region will bring some periods of rain, mainly at KPOU,
through the remainder of the overnight. While cigs and vsbys should
largely remain VFR, some brief periods of MVFR will be possible up
to around 12z/Thu. The northern edge of the rainfall may reach KPSF
so maintained a tempo but kept vsbys/cigs VFR. Rain should largely
remain just to the south of KALB but close enough that a VCSH was
included until 12z/Thu. Even if light rain reaches KALB, no
restrictions to vsbys or cigs are expected. Rain will stay well
south of KGFL with VFR conditions continuing.

Rain will end early Thursday morning and a return to VFR conditions
is expected at all sites through the rest of the TAF period with
gradual clearing.

Wind will be mostly north to northwesterly at 4-8 kt through the
overnight, then increase to around 10 kt on Thursday with a few
gusts to 15-20 kt possible. Wind will then trend light to calm
Thursday night.

Outlook...

Thursday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For Thursday, a dry airmass and deep mixing will
result in surface dewpoints falling to the mid 30s to mid 40s across
the region, while temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s will lead
to minimum RH values around 30 to 40%. Wind gusts now look to max
out around 15 kt. Furthermore, most areas saw at least a quarter to
half inch of rain earlier this week. In portions of the Mid Hudson
Valley where rainfall amounts were lower earlier this week
(northeast Ulster, northwest Dutchess, southwest Columbia Counties),
additional rainfall amounts tonight of around a quarter inch should
mitigate fire weather concerns. Therefore, special weather statements
for enhanced fire weather spread are not currently being considered.

Friday will also feature RH values of 30-40% and wind gusts
potentially of 15-20 mph. However, the appreciable rainfall of the
previous several days should once again limit fire weather concerns.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...Main/Picard