364
FXUS61 KALY 110610
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
210 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few lingering showers mainly west of the Hudson will largely
diminish by daybreak, with mostly dry weather expected Saturday.
Additional scattered showers will develop Saturday afternoon,
with western areas again favored to see light rainfall through
the day, before showers spread east into Sunday. Cool
temperatures are expected to continue through the Mother`s Day
weekend, followed by warmer but unsettled weather into the
workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A departing upper trough will continue to support scattered rain
showers within a region of deformation flow to the east of Lake
Ontario, reaching into the western Adirondacks through the
remainder of the overnight period. A few additional light
showers may develop in areas of terrain east of the Hudson
before moving into the Hudson Valley, but these showers will be
brief and light. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies are
expected to continue for most, although parts of northwestern
Connecticut, the southern Berkshires, and southern Mid-Hudson
Valley may see a sunny start before clouds increase later. Areas
of fog are possible in clearer spots, especially in sheltered
valleys, but will dissipate quickly following sunrise.

Following morning lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s, temperatures
will remain seasonably cool, reaching afternoon highs in the 50s
in high terrain and low to mid 60s at lower elevations. Brief
upper ridging will keep most of the region dry, but an upper
low digging to the southeast will approach from the Great Lakes,
resulting in increasing coverage of rain showers through the
afternoon for areas west of the Hudson. Scattered to numerous
rain showers will spread eastward through tonight as the core
of the upper low moves overhead by Sunday morning. Overnight
temperatures again fall to overnight lows in the upper 30s in
high terrain and low to mid 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned upper trough moves into the region Sat
night, with the core of the upper low tracking into western
NY/PA. This system will bring additional scattered to numerous
showers, spreading east across the area through the overnight
hours. With clouds/showers around, low temperatures will range
from upper 30s to upper 40s.

The upper low/trough consolidates over eastern NY into New
England on Sun, which will continue to result in areas of
showers pivoting around the circulation. Will continue to
mention high chance to likely PoPs through the first half of the
day. As the upper low tracks into western New England late in
the day, coverage of showers should tend to decrease. With more
extensive cloud cover and showers around compared to Sat,
temperatures will be cooler with highs only in the 50s to lower
60s.

The upper low shifts eastward off the New England coast Sun
night, with short wave ridging developing in its wake. This
should result in clearing skies with cooler low temperatures in
the upper 30s in the higher terrain to lower/mid 40s in lower
elevations.

Upper ridging already flattens out on Mon, while at the surface
a warm front will be quickly approaching from the west. So
chances for showers will gradually increase during the day with
the approach of the warm front. Depending on how much sunshine
can occur during the first half of the day, temperatures are
expected to moderate back to near normal levels (upper 60s in
valleys).

Will continue to mention mainly chance PoPs for showers Mon
night as the warm front progresses north/east across the area.
Lows will be milder than recent nights with upper 40s to mid
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Our region is expected to be in a warm sector with a SW flow
aloft developing, as an upper low tracks east across central
Quebec. At the surface, a cold front will be gradually pushing
eastward during the day. There should be enough forcing just
ahead of the front to result in likely showers, with perhaps
some thunderstorms depending on how much heating/instability can
develop.

The cold front pushes south/east across the area Tue night,
bringing additional showers. The front is then expected to stall
in vicinity of the northern mid Atlantic region. As an upper
trough moves into the central/southern Appalachians, a surface
wave of low pressure may develop along the stalled front. So
chances for showers could linger into Wed depending on the
eventual position of the front/wave. Will mention chance PoPs
for now until guidance comes into better agreement.

Thu now looks to be a dry day, as the front/wave move well
offshore and ridging develops both at the surface and aloft.
Temperatures could warm to slightly above normal levels given
sufficient sunshine.

The upper ridge axis shifts east of the area on Fri, as a
potentially strong system starts to approach from the upper
Plains states and Midwest. Guidance differs with the
timing/track this far out, so will go with chance PoPs for now.
If the pattern ends up more amplified, dry conditions may
persist through the day though.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are mainly in place tonight with partial cloud
coverage and a few isolated showers that tracked west of the
Taconics into the Hudson Valley. Given these isolated showers, we
included VCSH for ALB where the latest radar imagery shows a few
isolated showers near the terminal. Otherwise, POU has recorded
brief periods of IFR vis and cigs so far tonight which is why we
have a TEMPO group for IFR conditions in the latest TAF issuance
through 09 UTC. Any reduced cigs or vis should diminish by sunrise
given the strong May sun angle.

VFR conditions expected through at least 21 UTC at all terminals
with a period of morning sun mixing with diurnally driven cumulus
clouds by 16-18 UTC once the convective temperature is reached. A
few showers look to develop by 18 - 21 UTC, initially in the terrain
before spilling into some valley areas, so included VCSH at GFL, PSF
and ALB but note that showers will mainly isolated to widely
scattered so we do not expect any reduction to flight categories.

Showers become a bit more numerous by or shortly after 00 UTC as an
upper level disturbance from the Midwest slides eastward so included
-SHRA at ALB, PSF and GFL but again VFR conditions. Ceilings lower
towards the end of the TAF period and could approach MVFR limits by
03 - 06 UTC. Better chance for MVFR cigs after 06 UTC.

Southeasterly winds around 5 - 8kts continue tonight through the day
tomorrow. Southeasterly winds become a bit strong by or shortly
after 21 UTC as the sfc pressure gradient tightens resulting in
sustained winds ranging 6 - 9kts with gusts up to 12kts or so. These
winds continue through the end of the TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speciale