642
FXUS61 KALY 010529
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
129 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mostly clear and warm weather for much
of the upcoming weekend along with low humidity. A weak
disturbance could bring some spotty showers later Sunday into
early Monday, especially for areas south of Interstate 90.
Mostly dry and warm weather continues early next week before
chances for rainfall increase toward the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will crest over the region today as
surface high pressure is centered across the mid-Atlantic
states. This will give way to mostly clear and dry conditions.
Following a cool start to the day, temperatures will rebound
quickly with 850 hPa temperatures rising to around +12C this
afternoon and forecast soundings suggesting mixing potential up
to around 750 hPa. This would equate to temperatures reaching
the lower to perhaps mid-80s along the Hudson Valley and the 70s
to around 80 elsewhere. The ideal mixing will keep dewpoints
into the 40s to around 50 resulting in very comfortable
humidity. Wind will also be less than on Friday, though a few
localized gusts between 15 and 20 mph are possible during the
afternoon.

A slight increase in high clouds is expected Saturday night as
an upper-level shortwave disturbance approaches from the Great
Lakes, causing the ridge to weaken over our area. Still, good
radiational cooling conditions are expected due in part to the
dry air mass and winds trending light to calm. Lows will
generally fall into the mid-40s to mid-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level shortwave currently located over the southern
Plains will track toward the region Sunday, however should
weaken considerably upon reaching the upper level confluent flow
across the region. The remnants of this shortwave should allow
for some mid level clouds, and could allow for some afternoon
showers/sprinkles to develop, mainly for areas south of I-90.
Should downstream upper level disturbance across the NW Atlantic
shift farther east and reduce upper level confluent flow across
the region, then impacts from this disturbance may be slightly
greater, and trends will need to be watched. Assuming a more
optimistic outcome, high temperatures should reach the upper 70s
to lower 80s in valleys, and 70-75 across higher elevations,
along with a slight uptick in humidity levels. Sunday night lows
mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Latest trends suggest lack of larger scale forcing mechanisms
until later next week, when a frontal system and upper level low
approach from the west. So, minimal chances for showers for
Monday through Wednesday, with best chances early Monday
depending on ultimate track of shortwave just south of the
region. Better chances for showers and possible thunderstorms
later Thursday into Friday.

Warm and humid conditions are expected much of next week, with
highs mainly in the 80s in valleys and 70s across higher
elevations for Monday-Tuesday, then mainly 70s to around 80
Wednesday through Friday. Overnight lows generally in the mid
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through 00 UTC Sunday thanks to high
pressure providing SKC and dry conditions.

Initially gusty winds reaching up to 15-20kts this evening
become lighter near or under 5kts by 02-03 UTC this evening.
Light and variable winds continue through 15 UTC. Then wind
shift out of the west-northwest reaching 5-7kts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Speciale