087
FXUS61 KALY 160552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
152 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers diminish this evening as a boundary to the
north and west continues to weaken, while an approaching coastal
low brings additional rain showers to the Mid- Hudson Valley
and southern New England overnight. Showers continue through
Thursday before dry weather returns on Friday. Additional
chances for rain are expected this weekend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.Update...As of 1:45 AM EDT...The KENX radar shows little in the
way of showers across the region this morning with just a few
very light, possibly upslope-enhanced showers in the Berkshires.
However, an area of more widespread rain is located just south
and east of Litchfield County so another round is expected there
with the low looking to be retrograding just a hair towards the
NJ coast. Made very minor adjustments to PoPs to account for
both diminished showers in the Adirondacks along the weakening
boundary and to follow latest trends with rain spreading into
southern Litchfield County.

IR imagery shows some scattered breaks in cloud cover mainly in
the Upper Hudson and Mohawk Valleys which looks to be filling
back in and the slight sinking of the aforementioned boundary
meets the cloud shield of the coastal low. This has allowed for
some mist/fog to form in these areas, so maintained fog in the
weather forecast for the remainder of the overnight period.
Elsewhere, primarily low stratus ceilings remain.

Current temperatures range from the mid 50s to 60 with pockets
of low 50s scattered throughout the area. Made very minor tweaks
to reflect latest obs and trends for tonight`s lows. Otherwise,
the forecast remains in good shape. Additional details follow...

.Previous...Across our southern zones, showers likely persist
through much of tonight, with a period of steadier rain possible
across portions of far southeastern Dutchess and eastern
Litchfield Counties due to isentropic lift/warm advection
associated with a coastal front. There will be a sharp northern
edge to the steadier precip, and the heaviest precip is expected
to remain to our east through at least 12z Thursday. Also
added some patchy fog to the grids tonight, which is possible
should any breaks in the cloud shield occur. Most likely area
for this looks to be along and north of I-90.

A weakening surface boundary remains draped across portions of
the Northeast while a vertically-stacked upper low and incipient
surface low continue to deepen as they track together to the
northeast along the Mid-Atlantic coast. A more solid shield of
precipitation is impinging upon the southern New England coast
as the coastal low approaches, which will reach into areas along
and east of the Taconics in western New England overnight
tonight. Mild temperatures are expected to continue through the
period. Tonight, temperatures fall to lows in the upper 40 to
upper 50s across the region. Light south to southeast winds this
afternoon and evening turn out of the east to northeast about
the northern flank of the approaching low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Isolated to scattered showers continue on Thursday as the
coastal low meanders off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with the
highest chances for rain in areas nearest to the the low in
northwestern Connecticut and western Massachusetts. Other
higher terrain areas across the eastern Catskills, southern
Adirondacks, and southern Vermont may also see enhanced shower
coverage while the Mohawk, Schoharie, and Upper Hudson Valleys
trend drier. Temperatures stay cooler to the south and east of
Albany beneath more persistent cloud cover and rain shower
activity, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s,
while relatively clearer skies to the north and west yield
warmer temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Dry weather returns to the region by Thursday night as higher
pressure noses into the region as the coastal low exits to the
east. Temperatures near seasonable norms are expected, with
Thursday night lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the
region. Developing southeasterly flow on Friday will see
temperatures rise above normal, reaching afternoon highs in the
upper 60s to upper 70s across the region beneath partly cloudy
skies. Another approaching upper shortwave will bring increased
cloud cover ahead of rain shower late Friday night, with mild
overnight temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mid and upper level low/trough and surface low pressure system
looks to track from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas over
the weekend. There is some uncertainty on whether or not a weak
upper trough or upper ridge will be overhead on Saturday, which
would impact rainfall chances. In addition, an inverted trough may
be in place, especially for areas west of the Hudson Valley.
Overall, the best rain chances Saturday look to be for areas west of
the Hudson Valley. By Sunday, stronger upper level ridging will be
in place with surface high pressure nosing in from Atlantic Canada.
This will bring increasingly drier weather for the second half of
the weekend.

Continued upper ridging and surface high pressure in place will
maintain dry conditions for early next week. The next best chance
for rainfall arrives towards midweek as an upper-level trough and
surface low pressure system and cold front approach from the west.

Highs will generally be in the 60s and 70s Saturday through Monday
then trend upward to the 70s to lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Lows most nights will be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z Friday...Conditions vary from LIFR to VFR at the TAF
sites this morning. KGFL had LIFR/IFR fog/low stratus form with
light winds and mostly clear skies.  We used to a TEMPO group for
LIFR/IFR fog until 09Z/THU.  We have northerly winds increase for
the fog to break up and VFR conditions returning prior to daybreak
there with cigs at 4 kft AGL.  Further south and east, expect VFR
conditions with cigs at KALB in the 3.5-5 kft AGL range to lower
MVFR with some spotty showers approaching around the coastal low
near Long Island. MVFR levels at KPOU/KPSF will persist with cigs
1.5-3.0 kft AGL with occasional showers developing.

The showers may increase prior to noon and we used PROB30 groups or
went prevailing at KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  We may have to add in some IFR
stratus but we kept bases in the 1-2 kft AGL range.  We maintained a
VCSH group at KGFL with MVFR stratus.  The showers will taper in the
afternoon with cigs generally in the 1.5-3.0 kft AGL range until
close to 00Z/FRI where some low VFR cigs are possible.

The winds will increase from the north to northeast at 5-10 KT this
morning. The winds will generally be 8-12 KT in the late morning
into the afternoon with some gusts around 20 KT at KALB/KPOU/KPSF.
The winds will decrease to 7 KT or less towards 23Z/THU from the
northeast/east.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Gant/Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Wasula