866
FXUS61 KALY 021958
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
358 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance moving over the region tonight will
increase clouds and bring some isolated showers or sprinkles.  High
pressure builds back in from the northwest to open the week with
mainly dry weather and above normal early June temperatures.
Humidity levels will slightly increase on Tuesday with an isolated
shower or thunderstorm over the higher terrain, as a much stronger
system approaches from the west for late Wednesday through Thursday
with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 358 PM EDT...The mid and upper level ridge axis near the
forecast area over New England weakens, as a mid level
disturbance approaches. The weak warm front associated with sfc
low moving across the eastern Great Lakes Region has produced a
few light showers upstream over west-central NY. Most of the
pcpn continues to dry up moving east. A few light showers or
sprinkles may reach the Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and
the eastern Catskills. We kept some slight chance PoPs there.
The low-level moisture profiles remain very dry on model
soundings.

Mid and high clouds will be abundant and it should be a milder
night than the previous few, as the clouds should prevent ideal
radiative coolings conditions. Lows were favored close to a
METMOS/NBM blend with upper 50s to lower 60s in the major
valleys and 50s mainly over the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow, expect the mid and upper level flow to favor ridging
to return over Ontario, the Great Lakes Region and the Midwest
with a sfc anticyclone building in from southeast Canada. Light
north to northwest winds will continue to funnel dry air over
the region with dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s or so.
Humidity levels remain comfortable. H850 temps will be +13C to
+14C based on the latest GFS. Expect partly to mostly sunny
skies. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may pop up over the
southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and NW
CT late in the afternoon. Max temps will run 5-10 degrees above
normal with a blend of the guidance producing lower to mid 80s
below 1000 ft in elevations and 70s to near 80F readings over
the higher terrain.

Mon night the skies will become mostly clear with light winds as
the sfc high moves over eastern NY and New England. Some
radiational cooling will occur with light to calm winds. Lows
will be mainly in the 50s but some pockets of 40s may occur in
the southern Dacks.

Tue-Tue night...The mid level ridge axis moves over eastern NY
and western New England. The sfc anticyclone drifts toward
eastern New England. A weak sfc trough or a differential heating
boundary may kick off a some isolated showers/thunderstorms
over or near the higher terrain of the Adirondacks, southern
Greens, Berkshires, Taconics and Catskills. PoPs were kept in
the slight to low chance range. Humidity levels slightly
increase with sfc dewpts in the 50s to lower 60s. Highs will be
mainly in the 70s over the higher terrain with a few 80F
readings and lower to mid 80s in the valleys. Any convection
will shrivel with the loss of the diurnal heating. However, an
increase of clouds may occur well after midnight south and west
of the Capital District with some widely scattered showers
ahead of a warm front. Lows will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A shift to a more unsettled weather pattern begins in the mid week,
as ridging over the Northeast begins to break down with a mid and
upper level trough over the central Canadian Prairies becoming
negatively tilted over the Great Lakes Region and the Midwest.  A
weak warm front will increase some clouds with isolated to scattered
showers and the best chance of thunderstorms west of the Hudson
River Valley on Wed.  The medium range guidance and ensembles are
leaning for greater probabilistic chances for showers and scattered
thunderstorms Wed night into Thu with increasing height falls and a
trough of low pressure moving across the region.  PWATs increase to
1 to 2 STDEVS above normal in the 1.25-1.50" range by Thu.  Some of
the showers and thunderstorms may contain locally heavy rainfall.
WPC already has placed the entire forecast area in a Marginal Risk
in the Day 5 Excessive Rainfall Graphic.  It will the first
widespread rainfall in over a week.  PoPs were kept in the likely
range on Thu.  Max temps Wed will be in the 70s to lower 80s with
moderate humidity levels.  Lows will be in the mild side Wed night
with mid 50s to mid 60s.  In the unsettled air mass on Thu, expect
highs to be near or slightly below normal with 60s to lower over the
higher terrain and mid 70s to around 80F in the Valleys.

A broad mid and upper level trough sets up over the Great Lakes
Region, southeast Canada into the Northeast.  The H500 circulation
closes off upstream with short-waves moving around it Thu night into
the weekend. In the cyclonic flow, periods/bouts of showers and some
thunderstorms will be possible Fri and Sat into the afternoon.
Depending on the strength of the cold pool some hail may be
possible.  A few of the thunderstorms may be on the stronger side.
The better forcing on Friday may be from the Capital Region north
and west.  CSTAR warm season work has documented the sensible and
significant weather with closed/cut-off lows, as some locations
could receive appreciable rainfall with any showers/thunderstorms
moving repeatedly over the same area.  Lows Thu and Fri night will
be in the 50s to lower 60s.  Highs Friday will be in the mid 60s to
upper 70s with cooler readings in the 60s to lower/mid 70s with the
upper low coming overhead on Saturday.

The track of the mid and upper low poleward over Quebec late in the
weekend or if the closed H500 circulation lingers over eastern NY
and New England will depend on the shower/thunderstorm coverage to
close the weekend.  We have kept isolated to scattered showers in
the forecast with a few thunderstorms possible, as temps finish the
weekend near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region with sct-bkn
cirrus clouds and light south to southeast winds.  Through the rest
of the afternoon and into the evening hours, flying conditions will
remain VFR.  Mid and high level clouds will continue to increase
across the area as a weak disturbance approaches from the west.  A
few showers may try to spread towards the area this evening, but low
levels are very dry, so won`t mention any precip in the TAFs at this
time, as any precip will be very spotty and very light.  As a
result, flying conditions should stay VFR into tonight with bkn cigs
around 7-12 kft.  Light south to southwest winds will eventually go
calm or switch to the northwest by late in the overnight at light
speeds.

On Monday, flying conditions will be VFR once again.  Mid and high
level clouds will decrease during the morning hours, with most sites
only seeing sct cigs around 10-12 kft by the late morning hours.
Light north to northwest winds at 5 kts or less are expected through
much of the day.

Outlook...

Monday Night to Tue Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night to Fri: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Frugis