616
FXUS61 KALY 032353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
753 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm air mass will remain in place across the region through
Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible in some spots during the afternoon to
early evening hours. A large upper level low approaching from
the Great Lakes moves into the region by Thursday. This system
looks to bring unsettled conditions and cooler temperatures into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 7:40pm...Forecast remains on track with a pleasant night
as high pressure from southern Quebec continues to build
southward into the Northeast. Continued subsidence overnight
will support clear skies and light winds. Deep mixing during the
day today has left behind low dew points with much of eastern NY
and western New England showing dew points in the low to mid
50s. Radiational cooling tonight will allow temperatures to drop
into the mid to upper 50s but should remain a few degrees above
their respective dew points. Thus, we do not expect much in the
way of fog but included some patchy fog for parts of the CT
River Valley and NW CT where dew points are slightly higher.

Previous discussion...An upper level ridge axis will build
across the region into tonight. With the ridge axis to the west
of our region through early evening, there could be a rogue
diurnally driven shower or garden variety T-storm mainly over
the higher terrain of the eastern Catskills, but most areas will
remain dry. Humidity levels remain comfortable, with dewpoints
expected to be in the 50s. Low temperatures tonight will mainly
be in the mid to upper 50s.

Tuesday look to be similar to today, with upper level ridging
and a warm air mass remaining in place. Periods of some cumulus
and high level cirrus clouds will be moving through, but should
not temper the warming. Highs again should reach upper 70s/lower
80s(mountains) to mid/upper 80s(valleys). With humidity levels
rising slightly as dewpoints climb into the upper 50s/lower 60s,
there could be an isolated shower/T-storm during the afternoon
to early evening hours. Any coverage should be sparse though due
to lack of synoptic forcing and weak buoyancy (SBCAPE < 1000
J/Kg).

Upper ridge axis shifts slightly westward Tue night, with a
possible weak disturbance spilling over the ridge. With some
lingering weak instability, will mention isolated
showers/T-storms into Tue evening. Lows will be slightly
milder(mid 50s to lower 60s) due to a weak southerly flow
developing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Wed, the upper level ridge starts to break down across the
Northeast as the leading edge of a large upper trough moves SE
into the upper/central Great Lakes. While the forcing from this
system should remain well west of our area, a continued increase
in humidity(dewpoints into the 60s) and the ridge breaking down
could allow for an increase in showers during the
afternoon/evening. Still only looking at isolated to scattered
coverage for now. Guidance showing limited instability with
SBCAPE < 1000 J/Kg, so will only mention slight/low chance for
thunder. With some more clouds around it will be not quite as
warm the previous few days with highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

The weather then starts to turn more active late Wed night and
especially on Thu, as the upper level trough tracks into the
eastern Great Lakes, while the system`s warm front/triple point
moves into our area. While details in the exact position/track
of the upper trough (and its closed-upper low core) are not
certain, the pattern should result in high probability for
showers with some embedded thunderstorms depending on magnitude
of instability. Will continue to mention likely/categorical PoPs
on Thu. PWAT anomalies increase to +1 to +2 STDEV, so some
embedded downpours could result in locally heavy rainfall. Given
dry antecedent conditions, no widespread hydro problems are
anticipated. High temperatures should be cooler with mainly 70s,
but it will feel humid with dewpoints in the lower/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The aforementioned large upper level low will settle in across
the region through the long term period, providing generally
unsettled cool/showery conditions. There is considerable spread
in the guidance with regards to where the core of the closed low
will track though , so there is low confidence in specific
impacts at this time. The track of the closed low will determine
drier vs. wetter periods and also coverage/strength of any
potential thunderstorms. There is at least higher confidence in
temperatures cooling off to slightly below normal levels this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions tonight as high pressure maintains control.
Despite favorable radiational cooling, low dew points should
prevent fog at the terminals so we continue to show VFR vis
through sunrise.

Some cirrus clouds increase tomorrow and given increased
humidity tomorrow, expecting cumulus clouds to develop by 16-18
UTC, especially at PSF, with ceilings around 6-8kft. Some
isolated showers may develop off the terrain after 20 UTC but
given isolated nature, did not include VCSH for PSF. GFL, ALB,
and POU likely remain dry.

Light and variable winds through 12 UTC. Then, winds increase
out of the south-southeast by 16-18 UTC becoming sustained
5-10kts with gusts up to 15kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/Speciale
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speciale