447
FXUS61 KALY 220523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
123 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain warm and muggy through Wednesday, with
some scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening hours.  A cold front on Thursday will bring some additional
showers and storms, especially for areas south and east of Albany.
Cooler and less humid air is expected behind the front on Friday
with dry weather. Some additional showers are possible through the
holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.Update...As of 1:25 AM EDT...Most of the showers and storms
from earlier this evening have since dissipated, with the
exception of a few weakening showers tracking through the
eastern ADKs. Therefore, have removed any mention of thunder for
the remainder of tonight. These showers should end within the
next hour or so. Northern areas remain partly to mostly cloudy
at this time, but the clouds should also move off to our east
and break up as the nigh goes on. Southern areas are mainly
clear, and we have already seen patchy fog develop especially
in the areas that saw precipitation yesterday. Additional patchy
fog will form where skies remain clear and winds remain calm
between now and sunrise. Otherwise, mainly just cosmetic updates
with this EST. Previous forecast remains on track with more
details below...

.Previous...After the warm day today, it will remain muggy and
mild into the overnight hours. Skies will become partly to
mostly clear, especially across southern areas. Some patchy fog
may develop, especially late tonight and for any locations that
saw rainfall during the day today. Overnight lows will mainly be
in the low to mid 60s (some upper 50s across the high terrain).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Behind the departing disturbance, upper level ridging will
briefly reestablish itself for Wednesday. With the ridging in
place, it looks like a fairly sunny day, with just some cu
developing over the high terrain by afternoon. 850 hpa temps are
expected to be around +15 C to +17 C. Highs should be in the
upper 80s to near 90 in valley areas, with upper 70s to mid 80s
in the high terrain, making this the warmest day of the year so
far. Even though it will be muggy, heat index values should stay
below advisory criteria, although caution is still urged for
anyone spending time outdoors, as this will be the first heat
event of the season.

Some high clouds may begin increase by late afternoon or early
evening as the next system begins approaching from the Great
Lakes. A surface pre-frontal trough will help initiate some
convection over western and central New York and this will
spread into the area for Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.
Although the best severe threat will likely be west of the area,
some gusty winds or hail can`t be ruled out for far western
areas as the storms enter the area on Wednesday evening. With
the loss of daytime heating, the threat for stronger storms will
diminish into Wednesday night, although some scattered showers
and t-storms are still possible. Otherwise, it looks partly
cloudy and muggy with lows in the 60s.

On Thursday, a surface cold front will be crossing the area from
west to east, mainly early in the day. Initially, there may only
be some isolated to scattered showers along the front as it
crosses western areas for early in the day. However, with
daytime heating in place, some additional showers and t-storms
may eventually develop along the front by afternoon, although it
will likely be passing through southeastern areas by the time
this occurs. Can`t rule out a locally strong storm for areas
south and east of Albany on Thursday afternoon, but most of the
area should be in the clear by that point. Temps will range from
the mid 70s in northwestern areas (where the front will pass
first) to the mid 80s in southern areas (where it won`t cross
until the afternoon hours).

Behind the front, some clearing should occur on Thursday night
with less humid air working its way into the area. Lows will be
more comfortable than recent nights, with temperatures down into
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Although Friday looks rain-free and less humid than the past few
days, it doesn`t look as cool as what some models originally
suggested, as the upper level trough and associated cooler
temps/lower heights look to stay north of the area. Highs should
reach the lower to middle 80s in valley areas, although
dewpoints will only be in the 50s. With high pressure nearby,
skies should be fairly sunny through the day. It should stay
quiet into Friday night with partly to mostly clear skies and
temps in the 50s.

Over the holiday weekend, a series of upper level disturbances
should pass through the region. Although the exact timing and
track is still somewhat uncertain, it appears that the best
chance for precip will be on Saturday and again on Monday. Will
go with chance POPs for both Saturday and Monday, with slight
chance on Sunday. Best chance will be during the diurnally
favored afternoon and evening hours. Some rumbles of thunder
can`t be ruled out this activity as well. Daytime temps will
generally be in the 70s to low 80s, with 50s at night.

With the upper level trough building into the area, some
additional showers can`t be ruled out into Tuesday as well. Will
continue to keep chance POPs in place, with plenty of clouds and
temps still near seasonable levels, although the forecast is
more uncertain out this far.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z/Thu...Showers have ended at the TAF sites with dry
weather expected through Wednesday afternoon. Some lingering patchy
clouds are expected for a few more hours near KALB/KGFL, then a
trend toward SKC is expected into daybreak Wednesday. Patchy fog has
already formed at KPSF and should remain in place the rest of the
night with mainly VLIFR/LIFR conditions. Fog will likely form at
KGFL once clouds clear out in a few hours with IFR/LIFR conditions
there. Some patchy fog could develop near KALB so will monitor
trends there. No fog is expected at KPOU.

Any fog will lift by around 12z/Wed with VFR conditions in place up
to 00z/Thu. Some weakening showers and embedded rumbles of thunder
could cross the TAF sites between 00z-06z/Thu. Will include VCSH for
now given this is toward the end of the TAF period. Cigs may remain
VFR within these showers.

Wind will be calm or light out of the south-southeast for the rest
of the night then become south to southwesterly at around 10 kt on
Thursday, decreasing to below 10 kt Thursday night.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Gant/Main
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Rathbun