519
FXUS61 KALY 051730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with mainly dry conditions.
Then, our weather pattern will trend cooler and wetter for
Thursday through early next week with a cutoff upper low
expected to be located nearby.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.Update...As of 1:00 PM EDT...Low stratus that was in place
across our southern few counties has now mixed out, with mainly
clear skies across the region. Starting to see some diurnal
cumulus developing over the high terrain, but satellite imagery
shows that the cu field is pretty shallow across our area.
Taking this into account combined with 12z CAMs, have dialed
back PoPs slightly through the next couple hours, but will
continue to mention slight chance PoPs for some of our high
terrain areas this afternoon and evening with some chance PoPs
in the ADKs early this evening. Otherwise, just minor
adjustments to temps, dew points, and sky cover. Previous
forecast for a very warm and mainly dry afternoon remains on
track with more details below...

.Previous...We are still expecting another hot day with a
couple isolated afternoon or evening showers/non- severe
thunderstorms possible mainly across the western Mohawk Valley
or Adirondacks. Daytime mixing will help to minimize any
widespread clouds much of the day. However, some isolated to
scattered showers and storms still possible this afternoon.
Surface based instability due to daytime heating and any
localized convergence spots will support the isolated to
scattered activity. Highs in the mid to upper 80s with around 80
higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The leading edge of showers and scattered thunderstorms
approaches our region this evening. A leading upper impulse
will track through the southern periphery of a developing upper
cut off low and just south of our region toward daybreak and
through Thursday morning. The associated low level jet forcing
and convergence, will track just south of our region and an
area of showers and scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy
rain will track across areas south of the Capital Region.
Lighter rain will extend north of those showers and
thunderstorms Thursday morning.

Then, a sharp low level wind shift from south southeast to west
southwest and associated forcing will track through areas from
the eastern Catskills and Schoharie Valley, through the Capital
Region, Berkshires and southern VT and points north. Boundary
layer temperatures and moisture will drop behind the line or
band of convection, providing a little more forcing. Instability
will be marginal as midlevel lapse rates will not be steep but
there will be some instability.  A line or band of showers and
scattered thunderstorms, some strong with locally gusty winds
and heavy rain, will track through the region during the
afternoon, exiting by evening.

There could be some breaks in the clouds from time to time
Thursday, outside of the showers and storms but considerable
clouds through the day Thursday, again, with just a few breaks
in the clouds. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 70s with near
80 mid Hudson Valley and around 70 higher elevations.

Considerable clouds Thursday night with a few breaks in the
clouds from time to time as showers become more isolated to
scattered with the slow approach of the upper cut off low. Some
breaks in the clouds into Friday morning, but as the western
periphery of the upper cut off low slowly approaches and the
associated cooling aloft, clouds, showers and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms redevelop and increase in coverage in
the afternoon, with the instability. Highs Friday in the mid to
upper 70s with upper 60s higher terrain.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms decrease again, Friday
night and a few breaks in the clouds once again. Boundary layer
temperatures slowly cool as the upper low continues to slowly
approach. Lows by early Saturday morning in the mid to upper 50s
with around 50 higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled conditions continue through much of the extended forecast
period as eastern New York and western New England remain under the
influence of the aforementioned low pressure system...

By Saturday morning, the upper low looks to become settled to the
north and west of the region along the southern border of Ontario
and Quebec, overhead the northeast Great Lakes. Throughout the
weekend and into early next week, the system as a whole doesn`t look
to make much in the way of eastward progress, allowing broad,
cyclonic flow to remain dominant across the Northeast. As a result,
numerous rounds of showers and possibly some embedded rumbles of
thunder remain possible through at least Monday as moisture is
continually reinforced through southwesterly flow and large scale
ascent is supported by ongoing divergence aloft and upper energy
pulses rotating about its southern periphery. The challenge with
this forecast is identifying the greatest likelihood for said
showers and possible thunderstorms given the persistent timing and
evolutionary discrepancies within the medium to long range models.
At this time, showers and embedded rumbles of thunder look to favor
diurnal hours where differential heating will aid in increasing
instability. Therefore, the greatest PoPs exist during peak heating
hours Saturday and Sunday. With these PoPs, maintained slight chance
to chance of thunder until confidence increases in this element of
the forecast.

Additional showers will be possible Monday as the upper low finally
looks to shift further east. While there continues to be some level
of uncertainty in the terminal behavior of the system that is
impacting end time of showers, general consensus points to
conditions becoming primarily dry by Monday evening/night as
mid/upper-level ridging begins to build in from the west. The
remainder of the extended period looks to start the return to dry,
warm conditions across the region.

Speaking of temperatures, with the upper-low inflicting a cooler
airmass in comparison to recent days, high temperatures Saturday
through Monday generally look to range from the mid/upper 60s
(pockets of low 60s at highest peaks) in higher terrain regions to
low/mid 70s in valley areas. Low temperatures throughout this same
time will generally be in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s. Starting
Tuesday, temperatures begin to go on a bit of a warming trend with
highs anticipated to increase to the upper 60s to upper 70s. Lows
Tuesday night will fall to the low to upper 50s before Wednesday`s
highs rise to the mid/upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region. Satellite
imagery shows some few-sct diurnal cu and some passing cirrus.
Based on model guidances, forcing for precip should stay off to
the west through this evening, so dry weather will continue with
VFR conditions into at least the early evening hours with light
south to southeast winds.

For tonight, an increase in low level moisture thanks to a
persistent southerly flow will allow for some lower clouds to
increase. This could allow for MVFR to stratus to develop by the
late night hours for all sites, with the highest confidence
being at KPOU. There could be a few spotty showers by the late
night hours, especially for KPOU/KPSF, which could briefly
allow for MVFR visibility, although this is rather low
confidence. Light southerly or southeasterly winds will continue
into the overnight hours.

Some of the lower ceilings and MVFR conditions may linger into
Thursday morning. There could be a return to VFR conditions as
daytime heating gets underway, but more showers and t-storms are
expected to spread across the region by later on Thursday
afternoon. Winds will still be from the south around 5 to 10
kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected late tonight
through Thursday. Rainfall amounts of around 1 inch are expected
with localized amounts up to 2 inches. Some thunderstorms will
contain heavy rain and could produce localized ponding of water
on roadways, urban and small stream flooding and standing water
in low lying areas.

No flooding of main stem rivers is expected. Additional showers
and thunderstorms will occur Friday through the weekend but
less widespread and lighter, with additional amounts of perhaps
up to a half inch of rain through the weekend.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...Main/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...NAS