379
FXUS61 KALY 010228
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1028 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After another chilly night tonight, expect a beautiful Saturday
under plentiful sunshine and warmer temperatures. An upper
level disturbance may bring some clouds, and spotty showers for
areas mainly south of Interstate 90 Sunday afternoon and night.
Warm and humid conditions are expected early next week, along
with little if any rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 1020pm EDT, just a few adjustments to temperatures with
this update to better match current conditions and ongoing
slightly breezy conditions that are keeping temperatures
elevated at a few locations. Where winds have turned light
temperatures are cooling quickly into the 50s but where winds
are still a little breezy are in the low 60s. Expect winds to
turn lighter by Midnight which will support more efficient
cooling through sunrise. Still expecting lows in the upper 40s
to low 50s for much of the region.

Previous discussion [730pm]...High pressure building into
western PA will support ideal radiational cooling conditions
tonight. Leftover cirrus and daytime stratocu will quickly clear
this evening with gusty winds up to 15-20kts weakening by 02-03
UTC. Dew points are quite low this evening in the mid to upper
30s given northwesterly winds ushering in such a dry Canadian
air mass. Adjusted low temperatures down a few degrees due to
the dry air mass and favorable cooling conditions tonight so
expect another chilly night. Overnight lows expected to drop
into the mid to upper 40s for much of eastern NY and western New
England. Upper 30s in the higher terrain areas of the southern
Greens, southern Adirondacks, and eastern Catskills.

Previous discussion [330pm]...a mix of sun and patchy clouds
across the region, with temps in the lower/mid 70s within most
valley areas, and 65-70 across higher elevations. West/northwest
winds remain a bit breezy, with some gusts up to 25 mph mainly
within the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires.

Winds should quickly diminish shortly after sunset, and with a
very dry airmass remaining in place, expect temperatures to drop
off rapidly later this evening and overnight. Min temps should
fall into the 40s for most areas, with some upper 30s possible
across portions of the southern Adirondacks, eastern Catskills
and southern VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
After a chilly start, expect mostly sunny skies Saturday and
mainly clear skies through Saturday evening. Winds should be
less than today, with afternoon high temps reaching the upper
70s to lower 80s in valley areas, and 70-75 across most higher
elevations. Clear/partly cloudy skies Saturday evening should
give way to mostly cloudy skies later at night as high/mid level
clouds increase. Lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

The upper level shortwave currently located over the southern
Plains will track toward the region Sunday, however should
weaken considerably upon reaching the upper level confluent flow
across the region. The remnants of this shortwave should allow
for some mid level clouds, and could allow for some afternoon
showers/sprinkles to develop, mainly for areas south of I-90.
Should downstream upper level disturbance across the NW Atlantic
shift farther east and reduce upper level confluent flow across
the region, then impacts from this disturbance may be slightly
greater, and trends will need to be watched. Assuming a more
optimistic outcome, high temperatures should reach the upper 70s
to lower 80s in valleys, and 70-75 across higher elevations,
along with a slight uptick in humidity levels. Sunday night lows
mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Latest trends suggest lack of larger scale forcing mechanisms
until later next week, when a frontal system and upper level low
approach from the west. So, minimal chances for showers for
Monday through Wednesday, with best chances early Monday
depending on ultimate track of shortwave just south of the
region. Better chances for showers and possible thunderstorms
later Thursday into Friday.

Warm and humid conditions are expected much of next week, with
highs mainly in the 80s in valleys and 70s across higher
elevations for Monday-Tuesday, then mainly 70s to around 80
Wednesday through Friday. Overnight lows generally in the mid
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through 00 UTC Sunday thanks to high
pressure providing SKC and dry conditions.

Initially gusty winds reaching up to 15-20kts this evening
become lighter near or under 5kts by 02-03 UTC this evening.
Light and variable winds continue through 15 UTC. Then wind
shift out of the west-northwest reaching 5-7kts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Picard/Speciale
NEAR TERM...KL/Speciale
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Speciale