Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 222046
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
446 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure will move along a stationary front
located to our south bringing some showers to the southeastern
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut
mainly this evening. A stronger low pressure system approaching
from the Great Lakes region will bring more widespread showers
along with some thunderstorms to the area Sunday evening through
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
The local are is sandwiched between stationary fronts with one
located to our north across far northern New York and the
another our south across in the vicinity of I-80.

High pressure over Hudson`s Bay will shift southward with the
stationary front to our north weakening. Isolated convection
has developed south of the boundary just to the north of our
forecast area. This threat is expected to be short-lived; have
20 pops in for early this evening.

A wave of low pressure moves eastward along the boundary to our
south. This convection will pass to our south with some chances
for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms into the far southern
reaches of the forecast area mainly this evening where have chance
pops.

Partly cloudy conditions expected to develop across the northern
portion of the forecast area with mostly cloudy/cloudy across
the rest of the area. Lows from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Will be
muggy especially for areas south and east of the Capital District.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fair weather is expected for much of Sunday as the area is
between systems and some ridging builds in at the surface and
aloft. The ridging aloft will induced ahead of an approaching
trough and opening low. Guidance keeps this feature positively
tilted as it approaches and moves through. Showers will begin to
move into the area late in the day Sunday and will overspread
it at night with showers continuing through the day Monday. The
unstable air is expected to remain to our west and south with
some limited instability possible late Sunday night and Monday;
have slight chance for thunder during that time. The system will
be slow to move through so chances for showers linger through
most of Monday night with chances limited to the northeastern
portion of are into Tuesday.

Highs mainly in the 70s Sunday with some lower 80s up the Hudson
River Valley. Much cooler Monday with extensive cloud cover and
showers with highs only in the 60s with lower/mid 70s in the
mid Hudson Valley. Highs a bit warmer Tuesday in the mid 60s to
mid 70s; below normal by around 10 degrees.

Less muggy and more comfortable sleeping weather especially
Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period will begin with dry weather on Wednesday,
transition to wet weather Thursday and Friday, then return to dry
conditions heading into the weekend.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...High pressure will build eastward from
the Great Lakes resulting in mostly clear skies and pleasant
temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s
north of the Capital Region and upper 70s south of the Capital
Region.

Thursday and Friday...Expect unsettled weather with a chance of
thunderstorms on Thursday as cold front progresses to the southeast
out of Canada. This may become a system of interest in the upcoming
days as the GFS/ECMWF are suggesting modest instability, steep mid-
level lapse rates, and negative Showalter indices. On Friday, the
ECMWF has a low pressure system developing to our south and moving
Northeast while the GFS has a cyclone undergoing rapid cyclogenesis
off the east coast, therefore going with a chance of showers due to
the low confidence. Highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s with
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday...High pressure returns to the region bringing dry weather
and mostly clear skies. Highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s with
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the end
of the TAF period ending at 18Z Sunday. Mid and high clouds will be
the main sky condition through the TAF period with little if any fog
expected tonight due to the cloud cover. There may be a passing
shower overnight and Sunday morning at KPOU so have included a
VCSH.

Light and variable winds around 6 Kt this afternoon will stay light
and variable again tonight and trend to north and northeast at 6 Kt
or less Sunday morning.Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A wave of low pressure will move along a stationary front
located to our south bringing some showers to the southeastern
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut
mainly this evening. A stronger low pressure system approaching
from the Great Lakes region will bring more widespread showers
along with some thunderstorms to the area Sunday evening through
Monday with total rainfall amounts of around an inch anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrologic problems are not anticipated over the next few days.

A wave of low pressure will move along a stationary front
located to our south bringing some showers to the southeastern
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut
mainly this evening. The heavy rain will stay be to our south.

A stronger low pressure system approaching from the Great Lakes
region will bring more widespread showers along with some
thunderstorms to the area Sunday evening through Monday with
total rainfall amounts of around an inch anticipated.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Cebulko
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA


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