Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 251714
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
114 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and continued above normal temperatures. High
temperatures could approach or even break record levels through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sunny sky and light winds through this afternoon. Some clouds
forming in southern VT, the Taconics and Berkshires that could
become an isolated shower this afternoon due to the heat and
humidity. Highs in the 80s to around 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure both at the surface and aloft will remain
situated over the region through Tuesday evening, allowing for
hot and humid conditions to continue. A dry wind shift boundary
will sag south through the region late Monday into Monday night.
This will allow for mid level moisture to increase from the
south-southeast on Tuesday, leading to an increase in cloud
cover. Temperatures are expected to once again reach the mid and
upper 80s on Tuesday, but the cloud cover will determine if any
locations see the 90 degree mark for potentially the third day
in a row.

Wednesday, the upper ridge finally starts to break down as an
upper trough approaches from the west. There is some indication
that scattered showers and storms develop in a pre frontal
trough Wednesday afternoon. But these showers/storms should
remain isolated at best. The cold front then slides through
Wednesday night but is fairly moisture-starved. Have therefore
reduced pops from the ER Superblend.

Wednesday should be a few degrees cooler than previous days due
to increased cloud cover and potential shower activity.
Temperatures are expected to reach the low 80s by the afternoon,
with humid conditions continuing. A relief to the heat and
humidity will be upon us behind the frontal passage Wednesday
night as the winds turn out of the north and drier air filters
into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended forecast will feature more seasonable temperatures with
limited rain chances late Friday into the first half of the weekend
with a cold front and a trough of low pressure.

Thu-Thu night...A sfc cold front will be southeast of the region
early Thu.  The front will interact with Maria and direct her well
east to northeast into the Atlantic.  Strong low to mid level
tropospheric cold advection will occur with 850 HPa temps falling to
+4C to +9C from northwest to southeast across the region.  Brisk and
cool conditions are expected with a few lake enhanced showers over
the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.  Highs will be a shade
above normal with upper 60s to mid 70s mainly in the valleys and the
hilltowns with upper 50s to mid 60s over mountains with breezy
conditions. Mostly clear and seasonably cool conditions Thu night
with a weak sfc high building in.  Lows will be mainly in the 40s
with a few lower 50s in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT, and a few
upper 30s in the southern Adirondacks.

Fri-Sat...A short-wave trough embedded in the progressive mid and
upper level long wave trough approaches Fri afternoon.  The cyclonic
vorticity advection ahead of the short-wave will focus some isolated
to scattered showers late in the day and into the overnight period.
The better lift and moisture convergence on the GFS/ECMWF with the
short-wave and cold front will be from the Capital Region north and
west.  The QPF with the system looks fairly light with around a
tenth of an inch or less.  The forecast area needs the rainfall, as
it has been very dry the past few weeks. The front shifts east of
the region by daybreak Saturday and some isolated showers persist on
Saturday with the upper trough axis passage. Highs on Fri will be in
the mid 60s to lower 70s in the valley areas, and mid 50s to lower
60s over the mtns.  Lows Fri night fall in the upper 30s to lower
40s over the mtns, and mid and upper 40s in most of the lower
elevations.  Slightly below normal temps are possible on Saturday
with the upper trough passage, as highs will be in the 50s over the
higher terrain, and lower to mid 60s in the valleys.

Sat night into Sunday... A sfc anticyclone ridges in from the Great
Lakes Region and southeast Canada with seasonably cool and fair
weather.  Some patchy frost may be possible over the southern
Adirondacks, southern Greens and eastern Catskills with lows in the
mid and upper 30s.  Elsewhere, lows will be in the 40s.  The sfc
high settles over NY and New England with sunny and fair weather
with temps near normal for the first day of October.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in place
over the region through Tuesday morning.

VFR conditions should prevail through the afternoon with few-
sct cirrus and few-sct cumulus around. There may be an isolated
shower in the Berkshires but not enough coverage to indicate
VCSH at KPSF.

Tonight, another round of radiational mist/fog is likely with
greatest confidence for IFR/LIFR conditions at KGFL/KPSF once
again especially shortly before or just after 06Z. KALB/KPOU
less confident for IFR or lower conditions and we have placed
some shallow fog/MIFG or visibilities close to 5SM. Fog ends by
12Z-13Z and VFR conditions return Tuesday morning.

Winds will be variable in direction through this afternoon 6 Kt
or less. Expect calm winds to return tonight and light east to
southeast winds at 6 Kt or less Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No  Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Temperatures
could reach record high levels today through Tuesday.

RH values will be in the 80 to 100 percent range Monday night
and Tuesday night. RH values will drop to 40 to 60 percent this
afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

Light and variable north to northeast winds this morning will
trend east and southeast this afternoon into Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next
week. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is forecast
well into this coming work week as high pressure dominates. The
next chance for rainfall will be on Wednesday and Thursday with
less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall expected.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures will be possible today through Tuesday.

Here is a list of the current Record highs for September 25-26:

Albany NY:
September 25th/Monday: 89 degrees 1970
September 26th/Tuesday: 89 degrees 2007
Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY:
September 25th/Monday: 84 degrees 2007
September 26th/Tuesday: 87 degrees 2007
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY:
September 25th/Monday: 89 degrees 1970
September 26th/Tuesday: 90 degrees 2007
Records date back to 1949, however data is missing
from January 1993 through July 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/JVM
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS/JVM
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JVM
CLIMATE...



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