445
FXUS61 KALY 111020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
620 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slowly departing upper level low will continue to bring
mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers through today, with
temperatures cooler than normal. Drier and warmer weather will
arrive towards the middle of the week as the slow moving storm
system finally departs. Late in the week, above normal warmth
will return ahead of a cold front that could bring some showers
and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...No significant changes with this update. Just made
some minor adjustments based on current obs. Mostly cloudy and
cool conditions to start the day, with temperatures mainly
ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s early this morning.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0335]...The upper level trough that has been
in place for the past several days will linger for one more day
today. So similar conditions are anticipated, with mostly cloudy
skies and an isolated shower in some spots. Forcing will be
minimal, so most of the area will be dry. Any breaks of sunshine
will likely just lead to additional cloud development beneath
the cold pool aloft. So will go above NBM cloud cover today for
a more pessimistic forecast of mostly cloudy skies except for
the far southern part of the area. Highs will be cool again,
maybe 1-2 degrees warmer than Mon, but still below normal for
mid June with 60s in the higher terrain to lower 70s in the
Hudson Valley. The pressure gradient will be weaker today, so
winds be lighter than yesterday.

The upper trough will start to shift eastward into New England
tonight, but with cyclonic flow still in place clouds may be
slow to clear and may take until well into the night in some
areas. So again will mention greater cloud cover than the NBM.
Lows will be similar to recent nights, ranging from mid 40s in
the higher terrain to lower/mid 50s in lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough will finally exit off the New England coast on
Wed with some brief short wave ridging building in. So there
should be more sunshine compared to prior days. Temperatures
should respond as well, as the cold pool aloft will be gone.
Highs will warm back to normal levels with mid 70s to around 80
in the valleys and upper 60s/lower 70s in the mountains.

Guidance indicating a low amplitude upper level disturbance
approaching from the west Wed evening, and moving across our
area Wed night. Due to lack of forcing/moisture, dry conditions
are expected with just an increase in high/mid level clouds. A
brief light shower/sprinkle can`t be ruled out though. Lows
will be milder than recent nights, ranging from upper 40s in the
Adirondacks to mid/upper 50s in the Hudson Valley.

Heights aloft rise on Thu in wake of the disturbance passage,
with short wave ridging developing. This should result in rain-
free conditions and temperatures warming to above normal levels
as the low level flow becomes southwesterly. Highs could reach
the mid to upper 80s in lower elevations given the wind
direction and change in air mass (850 mb temperature anomalies
increase to +1 to +2 STDEV) by late in the day.

Heights aloft flatten out Thu night in response to a weak
disturbance moving through, while farther upstream a much
stronger upper level trough and associated cold front will being
to approach from the Great Lakes and SE Canada. At this time it
appears this system could get close enough to bring scattered
showers/T-storms mainly to areas north/west of Albany before
daybreak. Lows will be mild with a southerly breeze and
increasing clouds, ranging from upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A brief period of unsettled conditions is expected at the start
of the extended forecast period before high pressure becomes
locked in over the region to bring tranquil, warm weather...

Broad troughing spans much of the northeast by Friday morning
with its associated upper-level low pressure system located
within the vicinity of the Hudson Bay. The upper-trough will dig
south and east through the region Friday with a shortwave
perturbation aloft accompanying the passage of a cold front at
the surface. The progression of this boundary and upper
disturbance will bring showers and possibly some thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday evening. It is too early to draw
upon the strength of convection Friday given uncertainties with
the timing of the front, extent of available instability, and
spatial coverage of showers, but with dewpoints looking to be in
the upper 50s and 60s, this will be a day we continue to
monitor moving forward. High temperatures Friday will look to
range widely from the upper 70s to upper 80s with pockets of
low/mid 70s in the SW Adirondacks and possible pockets near 90
in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley.

Upon the passage of the front by Saturday morning, atmospheric
heights gradually begin to rise as the upper trough begins its
exit eastward. Ridging aloft will then build in from the west as
a surface anticyclone sinks in across the area from southeast
Ontario/southwest Quebec. Fair weather will subsequently set in
across eastern New York and western New England from Saturday
through the beginning of the next work week as high pressure
remains dominant across the region. There are some hints in the
medium to long range models that a weak disturbance could ride
along the apex of the ridge, flattening it slightly as a result,
and bring some showers and maybe some embedded rumbles of
thunder mainly north of Albany. However, with some differences
in model depiction of this disturbance, kept PoPs maximized at
slight chance for now.

As a result of the cool fropa, highs Saturday will range from
the mid/upper 70s to low 80s and pockets of upper 60s to low 70s
above 1500 ft. A warming trend then begins starting Sunday with
temperatures rising just a few degrees warmer than Saturday
before Monday`s highs reach the low 80s to near 90. With the
strength of the upper ridge, highs later next week could become
quite warm (latest NAEFS indicating 1 to ~2 STDEVs above normal
for mid June), so will continue to monitor trends as lead time
decreases.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals
with the exception of KPSF where MVFR ceilings remain. Infrared
satellite indicates clearing over KPOU and some pockets of
clearing near KALB that have lead to a persistence of VFR
conditions. Latest HiRes guidance indicates some decreasing
moisture in the lower levels which is thought to keep ceilings
within VFR height thresholds through the remainder of the
overnight period, again except at KPSF who could be locked in at
MVFR throughout much of the day. Some breaks in cloud coverage
are possible throughout the day today, but conditions will
generally remain cloudy with the continued influence of an
upper-level trough. A stray shower or two could cross into the
terminals later this afternoon, but due to the anticipated
scattered nature of precipitation, left this possibility out of
the TAFs until confidence increases in later updates.

Winds throughout the period will be light and primarily
northwesterly at sustained speeds of 2-5 kt. KALB and KPSF
currently have higher speeds out of the northwest (9-11 kt),
which should continue to decrease throughout the morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Gant