936
FXUS61 KALY 110227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1027 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slowly departing upper level low will continue to allow for
mostly cloudy skies and spotty showers through tomorrow, with
temperatures cooler than normal. Drier and warmer weather will
arrive towards the middle of the week as the slow moving storm
system finally departs. Late in the week, above normal warmth
will return to the region ahead of a front that could bring some
showers and thunderstorms for Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1030 PM EDT...Forecast remains on track for a cloudy and
seasonaly cool night. No major updates needed for this update.

Previous discussion [8pm EDT]...Cloudy and cool conditions
continue this evening as our upper level closed low persists
over the Northeast. Main forecast changes for this evening
update were to increase cloud coverage overnight and adjust
temperatures upwards a few degrees in response to the clouds
(lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s). Latest GOES16 IR and VIS
imagery shows a widespread blanket of stratocu over much of
eastern NY and western New England thanks to moisture trapped
underneath the low subsidence inversion. Forecast soundings
indicate this subsidence inversion will continue overnight and
with northwest flow maintaining a moisture fetch off the lakes
tonight, expecting stratocu to persist overnight.

Previous discussion...Through the evening hours, a few spotty
showers will continue, mainly for northern and eastern areas.
Skies will continue to be mostly cloudy through the early
evening hours. With the cool temps in place aloft, mixing has
been allowing for breezy conditions as well, with some westerly
winds gusting 20-30 mph at times.

With the loss of heating, any lingering showers will start to
diminish for tonight. There may be some more breaks in the cloud
cover for tonight, especially for valley areas. Winds will start
to diminish as well. With some partial clearing and diminishing
wind, temps will be cool for tonight. Valley areas will fall
into the lower 50s, with 40s across the high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Our region will continue to be under the influence of an upper
level trough on Tuesday. While the main upper level low will be
lifting out, another weak disturbance that rotates into the
Northeast will also become closed off. Moisture is lacking, but
a few spotty sprinkles or showers can`t be totally ruled out
during the afternoon hours thanks to low heights in place and
cyclonic flow aloft. Most areas should stay dry, though. Temps
will still be a little on the cool side (although maybe not
quite as cool as Monday) with valley highs in the low to middle
70s. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with some
diurnal clouds. Some clearing is expected on Tuesday night,
which should allow for another cool night. Lows will be in the
40s and 50s once again.

The weak disturbance over the Northeast will be moving away by
Wednesday. A brief shower still can`t be totally ruled out over
southern VT on Wednesday in the afternoon hours, but most of the
shower activity on Wednesday will be east or northeast of the
region. With the rising heights and warming temps aloft, highs
will be closer to normal on Wednesday, with max temps well into
the 70s to near 80. Dewpoints still look fairly comfortable in
the 50s. Sky cover should be partly sunny for the entire region
on Wednesday.

Dry weather is expected into Wednesday night. However, temps
won`t be as cool as the past few nights, with mainly mid to
upper 50s for lows (still some upper 40s to low 50s in the
highest terrain). Skies should be fairly clear on Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure situated south of the area will be allowing for
dry weather for Thursday. The flow aloft will be fairly zonal,
although the low to mid level flow will be out of the southwest,
so there will be some warming temps aloft. As a result, highs on
Thursday look noticeably warmer than the past few days, with
highs well into the 80s and dewpoints getting into the low 60s
in valley areas.

The next disturbance will be impacting the region for Thursday
night into Friday. The timing is still a little uncertain, but a
round of showers and thunderstorms looks to impact the region at
some point between Thursday night and Friday. There still are
some questions regarding how much instability will be in place,
which will likely depend on the exact timing of the system
approaching from the west. Some downpours may accompany some of
the heaviest showers/storms. If enough instability is in place,
some gusty winds could be possible too. Otherwise, it looks mild
and muggy on Thursday night with lows in the 60s and temps back
into the 80s ahead of the front on Friday.

Behind the front, somewhat cooler, drier and less humid weather
is expected for the weekend. With high pressure in control, it
looks rain-free with a mostly clear sky both days. Temps look to
be in the 70s on Saturday, with upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday.

Some models are suggesting a warming trend for next week as a
large ridge tries to establish itself along the eastern
seaboard. As a result, the week looks to start off warm and
muggy, but mainly rain-free. For now, will go with temps close
to the model blend on Monday with highs well into the 80s across
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR ceilings are now expected to persist at PSF and ALB
through at least 12 UTC given moisture remaining trapped
underneath the subsidence inversion. While GFL still features
low end VFR ceilings at the start of the TAF period, introduced
a TEMPO group from 00 - 03 UTC as ceilings should lower in
response to the reduced boundary layer mixing. Once MVFR
ceilings develop, forecast soundings support MVFR ceilings
through the overnight so we now show MVFR cigs through 14-15 UTC
at GFL, PSF and ALB. By or shortly after 14-15 UTC, cigs should
finally improve to low end VFR with OVC skies giving way to BKN
or even briefly SCT by 18 - 21 UTC. POU should remain VFR
through the end of the TAF period.

Breezy westerly winds through 02 UTC sustained around 10-12kts
with gusts up to 15-20kts. Then, westerly winds weaken to be
around 5kts through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Speciale