Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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694 FXUS61 KALY 101730 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 130 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will remain in place through Tuesday, bringing cool temperatures, periods of clouds and isolated to widely scattered showers at times. Coverage of showers will be less than the past few days though. Drier and warmer weather is expected on Wednesday, as the upper level low moves out and is replaced by a building ridge of high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 106 PM EDT...Large upper level trough remains centered over Atlantic Canada. The cyclonic flow has been allowing for fairly widespread cu/stratocu early this afternoon across all of eastern NY and western New England. Skies are fairly overcast across the Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region and Mohawk Valley, with some breaks occurring for areas south and east. A weak disturbance rotating around the upper level low is allowing for some light showers to develop. KENX radar imagery shows these brief showers and sprinkles currently impacting the Adirondacks and Lake George Saratoga Region. Through the rest of the afternoon, some brief showers will be possible (mainly for northern areas). Any precip will be very light and brief in duration. Very little instability, so will not mention any thunder today. A cool airmass will be in place(850mb temperature anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV), so highs will be below normal with upper 50s/lower 60s in the mountains and upper 60s/lower 70s in lower elevations. It will be breezy, with NW winds gusting 15-25 mph at times. Tonight looks to be fairly quiet with the disturbance tracking east into New England, so any leftover showers early in the evening should dissipate after sunset. There will still be varying cloud cover under the upper level trough, but enough breaks in the clouds to allow temperatures to cool into the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The upper trough will still be in place on Tue, but no significant disturbances are expected to move through. So while there could still be a few diurnally driven showers developing in the afternoon, coverage should be mainly isolated. The air mass will modify somewhat, with highs only expected to be slightly below normal ranging from mid 60s to mid 70s. Dry conditions in store for Tue night with surface high pressure building in. The trough aloft, while still in place, will be weakening. With appreciable clearing expected, lows should range from the mid 40s in the Adirondacks to mid 50s in the Hudson Valley. The upper trough finally kicks out to the east on Wed, as short wave ridging builds in from the west during the day. Subsidence will lead to dry conditions, with temperatures warming to slightly above normal levels for highs Wed afternoon. Dewpoints forecast to be in the 50s, so it will not be humid. Dry/tranquil conditions expected Wed night, with surface high pressure in place. Lows will be milder than recent nights, but still comfortable for sleeping with mainly 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Above normal temperatures Thursday into Friday to start the long term, ahead of a cold front/upper level shortwave approaching from the Great Lakes. Chances for showers/thunderstorms increase Thursday night into Friday with forcing/height falls overspreading the region ahead of these features. Depending on ultimate timing of front and stregthening mid/upper level winds, there could be some stronger thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening across portions of the region. Some showers/thunderstorms could linger into Friday night, with fair weather and seasonable temperatures/lower humidity levels returning for next weekend as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region. Daytime temperatures Thursday/Friday should reach 85-90 within valley areas, and mid 70s to lower 80s across higher terrain areas, although Friday temperatures are highly dependent on timing of frontal system and any showers/T-storms. Maximum heat indices may reach the lower 90s in some valley areas south of Albany on Friday. High temperatures Saturday/Sunday generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s in valleys, and upper 60s to lower/mid 70s across higher elevations. Overnight lows in the 50s and 60s Friday morning, cooling to the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s Saturday/Sunday mornings in the wake of the front. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday... VFR conditions will largely persist through the period. Bkn strato-cu deck at 3-6 kft will continue across the region this evening, with cloud bases likely to lower to MVFR levels at PSF during the overnight period after 00-03Z Tue, while lower clouds at 2-3 kft may also reach ALB. Some isolated showers are still possible in the vicinity of GFL/PSF through 22Z Mon, though no impacts to flying conditions are expected. Skies will trend clearer after 12-15Z Tue with sct clouds at 3-4 kft expected through the remainder of the period. West to northwest winds at 8-12 kt this afternoon at all terminals may gust to 20 kt at ALB/PSF through 22-24Z Mon. Winds diminish to calm or light out of the northwest after 00-03Z Tue, remaining 5 kt or less into the day Tuesday. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...Picard