Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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681 FXUS61 KALY 100528 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 128 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another upper-level disturbance will bring additional showers to the area tonight. Cool and showery weather continues into Monday beneath continued upper troughing, before high pressure brings a drying and warming trend for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... .UPDATE...Radar and obs indicating one batch of scattered showers moving east across parts of the S. Taconics, S. Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. Otherwise, there is another small area of showers upstream over the W. Catskills. These showers may graze parts of N. Catskills over the next 1-2 hours. Otherwise dry conditions should persist, although an isolated shower cannot be ruled out. Some breaks in the clouds have developed north of Albany, so have accounted for less cloud cover overnight in this area. .PREV DISCUSSION[1026]...Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level shortwave rotating around the base of an upper level low near southeastern Quebec. This shortwave is pushing through the Southern Tier of New York at this hour. Rain showers associated with this shortwave will push across areas mainly south of I-90 into the overnight hours before departing to the east. These showers have decreased in overall coverage over the past few hours. Farther north, only a few isolated showers are occurring but activity here should also slowly dissipate. In the wake of this shortwave, mostly dry and cool conditions are expected for the overnight hours under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Lows will fall back into the mid-40s to mid-50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Weakening and departing upper troughing through the short term period will see a modest warming trend, with drying weather outside of diurnally-forced afternoon and evening rain showers. Monday looks to remain seasonably cool, with afternoon highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations, and overnight lows in the low 40s to low 50s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist across much of the region, with lake-enhanced cloud coverage expected in the southwestern Adirondacks. Farther south and east, increased breaks of sun are possible. As heights begin to rise aloft on Tuesday, more widespread clearing is expected, with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies expected. Temperatures will warm slightly, reaching afternoon highs in the 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations, while overnight lows rise to the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The persistent upper-level troughing of recent days finally exits to the east on Wednesday, although a weak trailing shortwave may result in a few showers during the day. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through Thursday as largely zonal flow aloft and southwesterly low and mid-level flow about surface high pressure over the Atlantic allow temperatures to warm well above normal. Following near-normal highs in the upper 60s to low 80s across the region on Wednesday, hotter temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday, with highs in the 70s in high terrain and 80s at lower elevations. Surface dewpoints rising into the low to mid 60s on Thursday and especially Friday may make for more muggy-feeling conditions as the heat index approaches 90 degrees from the Capital District southward along the Hudson Valley. Guidance continues to suggest Friday may feature more active weather as a strong upper-level trough and associated surface cold front swing across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Given expected temperatures and humidity, thunderstorms are certainly possible ahead of and during the frontal passage, with the potential for some stronger storms depending on shear magnitude and if diurnal heating further destabilizes the atmosphere ahead of the boundary. Any showers or storms will exit by Saturday morning upper ridging and surface high pressure usher in more placid weather for the weekend. Temperatures look to trend downward toward seasonal norms through the weekend as drier and cooler air filter in on northwest flow beneath clearing skies. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06Z/Tue, the area will remain under the influence of an upper level trough. Areas of strato-cumulus clouds with Cigs of 6000-8000 FT AGL will prevail through the TAF period. However, a period of lower Cigs of 3500-5000 FT AGL are expected between roughly 08Z-15Z/Mon, with pockets of MVFR Cigs possible during this time period at KALB and especially KPSF. Some breaks in the cloud cover may also allow for patchy ground fog to develop at KGFL, which could lead to brief periods of MVFR/IFR Vsbys/Cigs prior to 10Z/Mon. Isolated to scattered rain showers will develop this afternoon at KGFL, KALB and KPSF, which could produce brief periods of MVFR conditions. Light/variable winds through daybreak will become southwest to west at 5-10 KT by mid morning with some gusts up to 15-20 KT possible. Winds will then veer slightly into the west/northwest this afternoon at similar speeds, then will decrease to 10 KT or less shortly after sunset. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Picard/Rathbun NEAR TERM...JPV/Rathbun SHORT TERM...Picard LONG TERM...Picard AVIATION...KL