722
FXUS61 KALY 091033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
633 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance and low pressure system will bring
steady rain to most areas for this morning, tapering to
scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. Cool and
somewhat unsettled conditions will then continue through Tuesday
as an upper level trough remains nearby. High pressure will
bring gradual improvement for mid week, along with warmer
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...As of 630 AM EDT, large area of steady rain, some
moderate to heavy in intensity, continues to translate eastward
across much of the region excluding the SE Catskills, mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT region. Some of these southern areas will also
receive a period of steady rain between 7 and 10 AM, especially
areas north of I-84.

Maximum rainfall rates have generally been between
0.25-0.35"/hour per NYS Mesonet and ASOS obs.

The heavier rain should begin to taper to showers from west to
east between roughly 9 and 11 AM this morning.

Still expect a brief lull in rainfall early this afternoon,
before additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
develop from NW to SE with the approach of next shortwave.

[PREVIOUS 352 AM EDT]...As of 345 AM EDT, strong shortwave
approaching from northern Great Lakes with compact low pressure
across NW PA spreading light to moderate stratiform rain shield
across western/central NY, and entering the western Mohawk
Valley/SW Adirondacks. Hourly rainfall rates of 0.25-0.35/hour
have been observed per NYS Mesonet obs across western NYS.
Strong low/mid level frontogenesis and moisture transport should
allow bands of moderate rain to quickly expand eastward,
encompassing most areas near and north of I-90 by 6 AM. Rain
should then expand southward as well, reaching the I-84 corridor
between 8 and 11 AM.

Area of steady rain should then shift eastward into western New
England by mid to late morning, with rain tapering off to
showers for areas west of the Hudson River by late morning, and
areas to the east shortly after noontime.

A lull in the rain is expected early this afternoon, with some
breaks in the clouds developing from NW to SE during the
afternoon. However, cold air aloft and increasing dynamical lift
from a potent shortwave approaching from the west should allow
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across
the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley later this
afternoon, some of which should migrate into the Capital Region
and eastern Catskills between 6 and 8 PM.

Some heavier showers/isolated thunderstorms could contain
locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail later this afternoon
through early evening, given somewhat inverted-V signature on
forecast soundings, and low wet bulb zero heights.

It will become breezy later this afternoon, with west/northwest
winds possibly gusting up to 30 mph at times within the Mohawk
Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires.

Afternoon high temps should reach the upper 60s to lower 70s
within valleys, and mainly upper 50s to lower/mid 60s across
higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will continue through
this evening as potent shortwave crosses the region. Coverage
should then quickly decrease later this evening and overnight,
with skies becoming clear to partly cloudy for most areas south
of I-90, while remaining partly/mostly cloudy farther north.
Some rain showers may persist across portions of the SW
Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley due to some lake enhancement.
Low temperatures will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s, coolest
across the SW Adirondacks.

Upper level trough and associated mid/upper level cold pool will
remain nearby through Tuesday, allowing for diurnal increases in
cloud cover and development of isolated to scattered showers,
especially Monday afternoon. Afternoon instability looks weak
and rather shallow, so no mention of thunder at this time.
Temperatures will remain below normal, with highs in the upper
60s to lower/mid 70s in valleys, and upper 50s to lower 60s
across higher elevations. Overnight lows will be somewhat
chilly, with lower/mid 40s across portions of the southern
Adirondacks, southern VT and upper Hudson Valley, and lower 50s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level trough finally exits off the the New England coast by
Wed, with a drier NW flow developing as weak high pressure builds in
from the west. This should result in dry conditions with
temperatures warming to slightly above normal levels. Flat ridging
expected to remain in place on Thu, although with winds shifting to
the SW, temperatures could warm considerably with upper 80s
attainable in the Hudson Valley. Dewpoints look relatively low (50s
to around 60), so it won`t feel humid.

Fri could be a potentially active day, as a strong upper level
trough and surface cold front are forecast to approach from the
Great Lakes, while a very warm and increasingly unstable air mass
develops ahead of this system. Depending on the timing and
magnitude of instability/shear, there could be some stronger storms
if the parameter and forcing line up during the peak heating hours.
Will continue to monitor trends. Temperatures will be quite warm
ahead of this system, with dewpoints creeping into the 60s making it
feel more humid. Heat index values may approach or slightly exceed
90F Fri afternoon in valley locations.

Showers and storms should end by early Sat morning in wake of the
upper trough and cold front passage. Drier and relatively cooler air
filters in on Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday...VFR conditions to start the period with mid
level clouds in place. However, conditions will deteriorate with
widespread rain developing from NW to SE between 09z-12z. Will
mention prevailing rain at KALB/KGFL/KPSF, but the steadiest
rain may stay just north of KPOU where at TEMPO is mentioned.
Flying conditions will lower to MVFR within 1-2 hours of rain
onset, with occasional IFR expected for a few hours prior to
ending.

Rain will end rather quickly by around 15z-17z, with conditions
improving to MVFR then VFR during the afternoon. Scattered SHRA
and isolated TSRA then possible late afternoon into the evening
hours as another disturbance moves through. Brief MVFR
conditions will be possible, but did not include with this
issuance due to low confidence.

Winds will initially be south-southwest around 3-8 kt, becoming
northwest and increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt
during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Picard
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV